Tuesday
Nov042008
Election Day: A State-by-State Guide
Tuesday, November 4, 2008 at 15:59
This is an update of Enduring America's original projection from 27 October.
Remember, first to 270 electoral votes gets to hang the curtains in the Oval Office:
SAFE DEMOCRATIC STATES (Total 238 electoral votes):
California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), Hawaii (4), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (15), New York (31), Oregon (7), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (11), Wisconsin (10)
SAFE REPUBLICAN STATES (Total 163 electoral votes):
Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Arizona (10), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5), Wyoming (3)
THE STATES IN PLAY --- FROM EARLIEST TO LATEST
Polls Close 11 p.m. British Daylight Time
INDIANA (11 electoral votes --- 6 p.m. Local)
Came into play a few weeks ago during Obama's surge amidst the economic crisis. Always a challenging target, however, with a strong Republican base amidst the rural population and a popular Republican Governor.
Likely Republican
Polls close midnight BDT
VIRGINIA (13 --- 7 p.m. local)
Republican for the last 40 years but a changing population, a strong Democratic Governor and popular Democratic Senator, and Bush unpopularity helped Democratic organisation tip this one to Obama. If the race is declared here, then the election is over barring a Republican surprise in Pennsylvania.
Likely Democrat
FLORIDA (27 --- 7 p.m. local)
The biggest state up for grabs, and one of the three most challenging to call. Strong Democratic voter registration may be the deciding factor in a state mixed amongst ethnicities, racial and religious background, and political views.
Possible Democrat
Polls close 12:30 a.m. BDT
OHIO (20 --- 7:30 p.m. local)
The state that handed George W. Bush the 2004 election has always been a bellwether for this election. A close and hard-fought race throughout the campaign, but strong turnout in urban areas may maintain the slight Democratic edge.
Possible Democrat
NORTH CAROLINA (15 --- 7:30 p.m. local)
A divided state --- where else could you get Senator Jesse Helms and Senator John Edwards side-by-side --- but changing population, for example, the white-collar influx into the Research Triangle, offers new possibilities for Democrats this year. Still a hard call.
Possible Republican
Polls close 1 a.m. BDT
PENNSYLVANIA (21 --- 8 p.m. local)
The only possible Democratic-held target and Get Out of Jail state for McCain-Palin. If they could somewhat convert that (white) working-class rhetoric into votes, then maybe they could swing this to their column. Always a long-shot, however, and Obama seems to have checked any last-minute comeback.
When this one is called --- presuming Obama has taken one of Virginia, Ohio, North Carolina, or Florida --- you Brits can go to bed.
MISSOURI (11 --- 7 p.m. local)
Media folks love this one for the fact that the state has picked the winning candidate for the last 100 years. Hard to call if Missouri will preserve that record by tipping to Obama --- the urban-rural mix and indeed the issue of a high African-American vote in the St. Louis area come into play here.
Toss-up
Polls close 2 a.m. BDT
COLORADO (9 --- 7 p.m. local)
In a state where power shifts between city "liberals" and rural "conservatives", complemented by a strong evangelical presence, the Democrats have taken the edge in both local and national races.
Likely Democrat
NEW MEXICO (5 --- 7 p.m. local)
An outstanding effort from the Democrats, with the Hispanic vote tipping their way and voters across age and education ranges coming out for them, makes this a huge symbolic victory in a state that was on a knife-edge in the last two elections.
Likely Democrat
Polls close 3 a.m. BDT
NEVADA (5 --- 8 p.m. local)
Bring out the final stereotypes of the evening. The gamblers and cowboys make the headlines, the unions make the difference for Obama.
Likely Democrat
Remember, first to 270 electoral votes gets to hang the curtains in the Oval Office:
SAFE DEMOCRATIC STATES (Total 238 electoral votes):
California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), Hawaii (4), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (15), New York (31), Oregon (7), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (11), Wisconsin (10)
SAFE REPUBLICAN STATES (Total 163 electoral votes):
Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Arizona (10), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5), Wyoming (3)
THE STATES IN PLAY --- FROM EARLIEST TO LATEST
Polls Close 11 p.m. British Daylight Time
INDIANA (11 electoral votes --- 6 p.m. Local)
Came into play a few weeks ago during Obama's surge amidst the economic crisis. Always a challenging target, however, with a strong Republican base amidst the rural population and a popular Republican Governor.
Likely Republican
Polls close midnight BDT
VIRGINIA (13 --- 7 p.m. local)
Republican for the last 40 years but a changing population, a strong Democratic Governor and popular Democratic Senator, and Bush unpopularity helped Democratic organisation tip this one to Obama. If the race is declared here, then the election is over barring a Republican surprise in Pennsylvania.
Likely Democrat
FLORIDA (27 --- 7 p.m. local)
The biggest state up for grabs, and one of the three most challenging to call. Strong Democratic voter registration may be the deciding factor in a state mixed amongst ethnicities, racial and religious background, and political views.
Possible Democrat
Polls close 12:30 a.m. BDT
OHIO (20 --- 7:30 p.m. local)
The state that handed George W. Bush the 2004 election has always been a bellwether for this election. A close and hard-fought race throughout the campaign, but strong turnout in urban areas may maintain the slight Democratic edge.
Possible Democrat
NORTH CAROLINA (15 --- 7:30 p.m. local)
A divided state --- where else could you get Senator Jesse Helms and Senator John Edwards side-by-side --- but changing population, for example, the white-collar influx into the Research Triangle, offers new possibilities for Democrats this year. Still a hard call.
Possible Republican
Polls close 1 a.m. BDT
PENNSYLVANIA (21 --- 8 p.m. local)
The only possible Democratic-held target and Get Out of Jail state for McCain-Palin. If they could somewhat convert that (white) working-class rhetoric into votes, then maybe they could swing this to their column. Always a long-shot, however, and Obama seems to have checked any last-minute comeback.
When this one is called --- presuming Obama has taken one of Virginia, Ohio, North Carolina, or Florida --- you Brits can go to bed.
MISSOURI (11 --- 7 p.m. local)
Media folks love this one for the fact that the state has picked the winning candidate for the last 100 years. Hard to call if Missouri will preserve that record by tipping to Obama --- the urban-rural mix and indeed the issue of a high African-American vote in the St. Louis area come into play here.
Toss-up
Polls close 2 a.m. BDT
COLORADO (9 --- 7 p.m. local)
In a state where power shifts between city "liberals" and rural "conservatives", complemented by a strong evangelical presence, the Democrats have taken the edge in both local and national races.
Likely Democrat
NEW MEXICO (5 --- 7 p.m. local)
An outstanding effort from the Democrats, with the Hispanic vote tipping their way and voters across age and education ranges coming out for them, makes this a huge symbolic victory in a state that was on a knife-edge in the last two elections.
Likely Democrat
Polls close 3 a.m. BDT
NEVADA (5 --- 8 p.m. local)
Bring out the final stereotypes of the evening. The gamblers and cowboys make the headlines, the unions make the difference for Obama.
Likely Democrat
tagged US Election in US Politics
US Election in US Politics
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