The Other Battlefield: Tonight's Senate Races

This is an update of Enduring America's original projection on 28 October.

YOUR ESSENTIAL SUMMARY: DEMOCRATS PICK UP SEVEN SENATE SEATS, WITH AN 8TH WITHIN REACH IN MINNESOTA

In the current Senate, the Democrats and Republicans each hold 49 seats. The Democrats only maintain a nominal advantage because two Independents, Lieberman of Connecticut and Sanders of Vermont, vote with the Democratic caucus.

There are 35 seats, all but one with a six-year term, being contested tonight. The Democrats should easily hold all 12 of the seats they are defending. The Republicans, however, are vulnerable in no less than 11 of their seats.

SAFE REPUBLICAN HOLDS: 12

Alabama (Sessions), Idaho (Risch), Kansas (Roberts), Maine (Collins), Mississippi (Cochran), Nebraska (Johanns), Oklahoma (Inhofe), South Carolina (Graham), Tennessee (Alexander), Texas (Cornyn), Wyoming-1 (Barrasso --- 4-year replacement term), Wyoming-2 (Enzi)

SAFE DEMOCRATIC HOLDS: 12

Arkansas (Pryor), Delaware (Biden), Illinois (Durbin), Iowa (Harkin), Louisiana (Landrieu), Massachusetts (Kerry), Michigan (Levin), Montana (Baucus), New Jersey (Lautenberg), Rhode Island (Reed), Johnson (South Dakota), West Virginia (Rockefeller)

THE RACES: 11 (Republican Incumbents marked with an *)

ALASKA: STEVENS (R*) v. BEGICH (D)

One to celebrate. The wily, rude, but now criminally-convicted Stevens has been doomed by his felon status....

NEAR-CERTAIN DEMOCRAT GAIN

COLORADO: SCHAFFER (R) v. M. UDALL (D)

Udall, one of two members of a prominent political family running this year, is more than 10 points up in polls....

NEAR-CERTAIN DEMOCRAT GAIN

GEORGIA: CHAMBLISS (R*) v. MARTIN (D)

Hate to say it, given the despicable way Chambliss unseated Max Cleland in 2002, but he's out of trouble now....

NEAR-CERTAIN REPUBLICAN HOLD

KENTUCKY: MCCONNELL (R*) v. LUNSFORD (D)

The potential embarrassment of embarrassment for Republicans, with Senate Minority Leader McConnell suddenly in a real electoral battle. His lead has widened in the last week....

NEAR-CERTAIN REPUBLICAN HOLD

MINNESOTA: COLEMAN (R*) v. FRANKEN (D)

The race of Senate races. Franken, the comedian/author turned campaigner, came from far back to take the lead in the polls in October. There's been a swing to Coleman in recent days, however. Even harder to call because there is an independent currently taking more than 15 percent of the vote in surveys.

NARROW REPUBLICAN HOLD

MISSISIPPI: WICKER (R*) v. MUSGROVE (D)

Actually, this one was never in question but there was a flutter amidst the Democratic rush in the polls during mid-October....

NEAR-CERTAIN REPUBLICAN HOLD

NEW HAMPSHIRE: SUNUNU (R*) v. SHAHEEN (D)

Former Governor Shaheen, running a strong race, knocks off Sununu, the son of a former Republican White House Chief of Staff....

NEAR-CERTAIN DEMOCRAT GAIN

NEW MEXICO: PEARCE (R) v. T. UDALL (D)

Udall is even safer than his cousin in Colorado, holding a 15-point lead....

NEAR-CERTAIN DEMOCRAT GAIN

NORTH CAROLINA: DOLE (R*) v. HAGAN (D)

An uphilll battle for the former Secretary of Transportation and wife of former Presidential candidate Bob Dole....

PROBABLE DEMOCRAT GAIN

OREGON: SMITH (R*) v. MERKLEY (D)

Republican Smith distances himself from President Bush, tries to embrace Obama, fails to save himself....

PROBABLE DEMOCRAT GAIN

VIRGINIA: GILMORE (R) v. WARNER (D)

A race between two former Governors is no contest --- Warner's victory is both a sign of and a boost to the likely Obama success in the state....

NEAR-CERTAIN DEMOCRAT GAIN