Iran's Elections: Surprise and Uncertainty

The least that could be said this morning is that the overnight outcome of Iran's Presidential election was unexpected, to observers outside the country and I suspect many inside it. It is the more that might be said --- and done --- that now occupies attention.

The latest announced vote count, as I write, is about 18 million votes for President Ahmadinejad and 9 million for former Prime Minister Mir Hossein Mousavi, with about 250.,000 each for Mohsen Rezaei and Mehdi Karroubi. With Iranian official saying that 32 million ballots were cast, the total already allow Ahmadinejad to claim a majority victory.

The President's advisors are already doing so eagerly. Meanwhile, Mousavi is considering his next step. His campaign's immediate response was there had been widespread irregularities in the campaign, although their initial statements focused on those prevented from voting before polls counted.

The bigger question is whether the totals were "massaged" to ensure Ahmadinejad did not have to face a widely-expected second-round contest with Mousavi. The challenger was reportedly meeting with the other candidates, Rezaei and Karroubi, to consider next steps.

It appears many in Iran are holding their breaths waiting for developments. Ahmadinejad supporters have been celebrating in the streets, but there are no reports on conflicts beyond the break-up of one gathering of Mousavi enthusiasts. Mehr newspaper is reporting, however, that authorities have warned rallies are prohibited.

Comments

[m.s.motahhari]

Many had predicted Ahmadinejad’s victory in this election but what is surprising to some people inside Iran is the huge gap between the votes. To me what it shows isn’t a cheating in the results rather it shows that some of many people, even inside Iran, had underestimated Ahmadinejad’s influence upon and the support he has gained in small cities and among the less privileged people in the society.

[Canuckistan]

That fits with what is argued here:
http://enduringamerica.com/2009/06/13/irans-election-ahmadinejad-victory/

[Mike Dunn]

And here:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/jun/13/iranian-election

[m.k]

in this the election result was a big disgrace for the current gavernment of iran, ahmadinezhad could not heve such votes or support from the people.
1. mr. khatami the former president of iran had 22 million of supporters without any big rivel for presidency. how could mr. ahmadinezhad beat his record with so many opposisions in iran who are protesting agianst him?????
2. about 70 persent of iranian papulation are young people who most of them hate ahmadinezhad, how could he win so much votes?????
there is a big douth in this funny and nasty election.