Saturday
Jun202009
Iran: The 7 Lessons of the Supreme Leader's Address
Saturday, June 20, 2009 at 7:30
The Latest from Iran (20 June): Will The Rally Go Ahead?
The Latest from Iran (19 June): The Supreme Leader Speaks
Iran: Live Blog of Supreme Leader’s Address (19 June)
Transcript: Ayatollah Khamenei's Speech at Prayers (19 June)
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Chris Emery offers the following snap analysis of today's address by the Supreme Leader:
1. Friday's speech was a challenge, even for a seasoned political performer like Ayatollah Khamenei. Unable to offer concessions, he reasoned that the wisest move was to increase the pressure on the political opposition, especially Presidential candidate Mir-Hossein Mousavi. So the Supreme Leader put an agonising decision upon Mousavi: does he withdraw his backing for further demonstrations or risk being held directly responsible for any future bloodshed?
The overriding objective: split Mousavi, and to a lesser extent fellow candidate Mehdi Karroubi, from their supporters.
2. Reports currently that Mousavi will defy an Interior Ministry ban to attend tomorrow's demonstrations in Tehran's Enqelab Square. As Khamenei has drawn a line under the election result, explicitly warning Mousavi's supporters there will be no change, Saturday's rally could yet be the greatest challenge the Islamic Republic has ever seen.
Mousavi has few alternatives to this course of action. Whether or not he attends tomorrow's planned demonstration, his supporters will turn out again in huge numbers. If they did not have Mousavi's political backing, they would be isolated and more easily labelled attacked as extremist rioters.
Mousavi is thus in the unenviable position of being responsible for his supporter's political cover, whilst at the same time being held accountable for any potential violence perpetrated by either side. Faced with this dilemma, Mousavi will probably attend but urge extreme restraint.
3. It is possible, but probably unlikely, that Mousavi will be offered something he can take to his people by the Guardian Council, which is meeting with all four presidential candidates tomorrow. There seems little, however, that the Council can now offer Mousavi.
4. Ominously, Khamenei used his speech to defend the feared state paramilitaries, the Basiji, and criticised attacks on them by the public. The State's irregular enforcers will potentially view the Supreme Leader's moratorium on dissent as license to commit acts of violence in the knowledge that Khamenei has implicitly set Mousavi up to take the blame.
5. The Supreme Leader came to Friday prayers to praise former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, not to bury his rival. Following these conciliatory gestures, together with the Supreme Leader's strong backing of Ahmadinejad, any continued moves by Rafsanjani will appear increasingly brazen and disloyal.
6. Khamenei was speaking to three audiences: the presidential candidates, the people in the streets and influential power bases in Iran's political establishment. To reach all three, he played the nationalist card. Iran was valiantly facing the threat of enemies: Western countries, "Zionists", Barack Obama, even "British radio".
This rather crude framing was buttressed by a more subtle geo-political lesson: Khamenei highlighted the current turmoil in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iraq to say to Iranians, "Look at these countries. Do you want to be as unstable as they are/have been?" It is also no coincidence that all three countries named have recently been the sites of American interventions.
7. The Supreme Leader's defiant rejection of any wrongdoings in these elections has put the ball firmly in Mousavi's court. The candidate's political future, and even personal freedom, may now depend on the conduct of tomorrow's demonstration and how the authorities respond.
[Enduring America is continuing to follow the situation in Iran very closely- for the latest, please subscribe to our updates.]
The Latest from Iran (19 June): The Supreme Leader Speaks
Iran: Live Blog of Supreme Leader’s Address (19 June)
Transcript: Ayatollah Khamenei's Speech at Prayers (19 June)
Receive our latest updates by email or RSS- SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Chris Emery offers the following snap analysis of today's address by the Supreme Leader:1. Friday's speech was a challenge, even for a seasoned political performer like Ayatollah Khamenei. Unable to offer concessions, he reasoned that the wisest move was to increase the pressure on the political opposition, especially Presidential candidate Mir-Hossein Mousavi. So the Supreme Leader put an agonising decision upon Mousavi: does he withdraw his backing for further demonstrations or risk being held directly responsible for any future bloodshed?
The overriding objective: split Mousavi, and to a lesser extent fellow candidate Mehdi Karroubi, from their supporters.
2. Reports currently that Mousavi will defy an Interior Ministry ban to attend tomorrow's demonstrations in Tehran's Enqelab Square. As Khamenei has drawn a line under the election result, explicitly warning Mousavi's supporters there will be no change, Saturday's rally could yet be the greatest challenge the Islamic Republic has ever seen.
Mousavi has few alternatives to this course of action. Whether or not he attends tomorrow's planned demonstration, his supporters will turn out again in huge numbers. If they did not have Mousavi's political backing, they would be isolated and more easily labelled attacked as extremist rioters.
Mousavi is thus in the unenviable position of being responsible for his supporter's political cover, whilst at the same time being held accountable for any potential violence perpetrated by either side. Faced with this dilemma, Mousavi will probably attend but urge extreme restraint.
3. It is possible, but probably unlikely, that Mousavi will be offered something he can take to his people by the Guardian Council, which is meeting with all four presidential candidates tomorrow. There seems little, however, that the Council can now offer Mousavi.
4. Ominously, Khamenei used his speech to defend the feared state paramilitaries, the Basiji, and criticised attacks on them by the public. The State's irregular enforcers will potentially view the Supreme Leader's moratorium on dissent as license to commit acts of violence in the knowledge that Khamenei has implicitly set Mousavi up to take the blame.
5. The Supreme Leader came to Friday prayers to praise former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, not to bury his rival. Following these conciliatory gestures, together with the Supreme Leader's strong backing of Ahmadinejad, any continued moves by Rafsanjani will appear increasingly brazen and disloyal.
6. Khamenei was speaking to three audiences: the presidential candidates, the people in the streets and influential power bases in Iran's political establishment. To reach all three, he played the nationalist card. Iran was valiantly facing the threat of enemies: Western countries, "Zionists", Barack Obama, even "British radio".
This rather crude framing was buttressed by a more subtle geo-political lesson: Khamenei highlighted the current turmoil in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iraq to say to Iranians, "Look at these countries. Do you want to be as unstable as they are/have been?" It is also no coincidence that all three countries named have recently been the sites of American interventions.
7. The Supreme Leader's defiant rejection of any wrongdoings in these elections has put the ball firmly in Mousavi's court. The candidate's political future, and even personal freedom, may now depend on the conduct of tomorrow's demonstration and how the authorities respond.
[Enduring America is continuing to follow the situation in Iran very closely- for the latest, please subscribe to our updates.]
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