Monday
Jul202009
Iran: The Supreme Leader Responds
Monday, July 20, 2009 at 17:51
Iran: Pressure on the Supreme Leader?
The Latest from Iran (20 July): How Far Can This Go?
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A reader gives us an invaluable update, via Parleman News, on Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's address, commemorating the festival of Aid-e-Mabaas and the divine revelation to the Prophet Mohammad. The summary prompts two questions, in light of Hashemi Rafsanjani's Friday address, the persistent Green Movement, and the latest challenges to the Supreme Leader outlined in our post this morning: 1) can Khamenei really rely on the "foreign menace" to maintain the support of most of the Iranian population, especially if that means a political showdown with a Rafsanjani or a Mousavi?; 2) how far can the call to "morality" take precedence over the specific concerns over the Iranian system during and after the system?
My sense (as an outsider) is that the first ploy is more and more ineffective with many Iranians. The second is more important, asking Iran's population to make a commitment to religious observation over their views on the country's political system.
Ayatollah Khamenei, stating that "rationality was the first issue that the prophet implemented in society", invoked morality to support the legitimacy of the Iranian system: "The propagation of moral values in society is like a clear breeze that .....prevents people from being covetousness, ignorant, personally vindictive, suspicious towards one another."
As has been the case since his prayer address on 19 June, the initial target for the Supreme Leader was foreign influences and his main assurance was that Iranians would reject these influences to support their clerical and political leadership:
Then, however, Khamenei went beyond the foreign menace to square up to the challenge of internal opposition:
Khamenei turn returned to his opening call to rationality as morality and adherence to religion: "People should not delude themselves into thinking that playing politics is rationality. Rationality is not playing politics but worshiping God."
The Latest from Iran (20 July): How Far Can This Go?
Receive our latest updates by email or RSS- SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
A reader gives us an invaluable update, via Parleman News, on Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's address, commemorating the festival of Aid-e-Mabaas and the divine revelation to the Prophet Mohammad. The summary prompts two questions, in light of Hashemi Rafsanjani's Friday address, the persistent Green Movement, and the latest challenges to the Supreme Leader outlined in our post this morning: 1) can Khamenei really rely on the "foreign menace" to maintain the support of most of the Iranian population, especially if that means a political showdown with a Rafsanjani or a Mousavi?; 2) how far can the call to "morality" take precedence over the specific concerns over the Iranian system during and after the system?My sense (as an outsider) is that the first ploy is more and more ineffective with many Iranians. The second is more important, asking Iran's population to make a commitment to religious observation over their views on the country's political system.
Ayatollah Khamenei, stating that "rationality was the first issue that the prophet implemented in society", invoked morality to support the legitimacy of the Iranian system: "The propagation of moral values in society is like a clear breeze that .....prevents people from being covetousness, ignorant, personally vindictive, suspicious towards one another."
As has been the case since his prayer address on 19 June, the initial target for the Supreme Leader was foreign influences and his main assurance was that Iranians would reject these influences to support their clerical and political leadership:
Arrogant powers consider the Islamic republic of Iran to be an impediment to their global ill-omened plans especially in the Middle East....The people of Iran have demonstrated that in the last 30 years it is a loyal and self sacrificing populace and these characteristics did manifest themselves in the post election events....Amongst Iranians different groups have different viewpoints regarding social issues and all express their opinions, however ....Whenever the people feel that a element is organizing an attack to the establishment, they will distance themselves [from that element] even if that element is chanting popular slogans....Even during a great calm and stable movement one should not ignore the possibility of intrigues of enemies...although it is obvious that all these events have been orchestrated by the enemies and their media, they still have the gall to claim that they are not interfering [in Iranian internal politics]....Foreign media want to support these rioting anarchists by portraying them as 'the people', but the [Iranian] people will ostracize these rioters.
Then, however, Khamenei went beyond the foreign menace to square up to the challenge of internal opposition:
Anyone with any position and credentials that they have, if they intend to direct society to insecurity is a hated individual....The elite must recognize that if any of their words, interpretations or actions compromise the security of society, they will be stepping against the pathway of the Iranian people...They must be careful of what they say...and they must know that they are facing a great test, failing this test is not merely a failing grade it will cause their fall.
Khamenei turn returned to his opening call to rationality as morality and adherence to religion: "People should not delude themselves into thinking that playing politics is rationality. Rationality is not playing politics but worshiping God."
Reader Comments (2)
"Rationality is not playing politics but worshiping God.” Has anyone pointed out to Khamenei that he is NOT God?
It should have been anticipated for Khamanei to come out hard post Friday sermon, but the forum of his speech and the choice of words he has used leaves me to think he is going to be able to only take out one opponent (Mousavi) at the moment. He still seems not to be able to directly tackle the clergy against him. I suspect he is weaker than we have anticipated, and that the clerical voices amassing against him are larger than we have been lead to believe.
There increasingly seems to be a hostage situation where Mr. Khamanei is becoming hostage to the IRGC for survival. The next gambit has to be to split the guards and bring other forces into play.
Khamanei is making himself look weaker with evey speech he gives. Surprizing to see Larijani in the photo above, siting next to Yazdi and Ahmadinejad.