Thursday
Jul232009
Iran: Ahmadinejad v. The Conservatives?
Thursday, July 23, 2009 at 9:19
The Latest from Iran (23 July): Preparing the Front
Receive our latest updates by email or RSS- SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis
In the last week, the resurgence of the opposition movement has been parallelled by serious divisions within the regime. One catalyst for the internal arguments was President Ahmadinejad's insistence on the appointment of Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, the father of his daughter-in-law, as First Vice President. Beyond the issue of nepotism, Rahim-Mashai is disliked by many "conservatives" because of a statement indicating that Iranians are friends of all people, including Israelis.
The "reformist" columnist Mohammd Abtahi, writing at the site Ayande, explains what is at stake in this showdown between conservative elements. He argues that, contrary to appearances, Ahmadinejad's stance is not foolhardy but politically necessary. (Thanks to Mani for both the tip and the translation.)
What is the relationship between the announced election results and the choice of Vice President Rashim-Mashai?
If all parties and individuals supporting the government are totally convinced that the President on 22 of Khordad (12 June) had 24 million votes, they must also logically accept that a great portion of these votes has been won as an affirmation of the President, rather than his conservative supporters. This is because these supporters, especially the more traditional elements, do not have sufficient popularity to procure this huge number of votes for the President through regular procedures.
If this logic is accepted, the President not only does not owe these conservative supporters anything, but as a matter of fact he has done them a huge service by amassing such a huge vote for the whole conservative faction through his policies or his special characteristics, thereby "avoiding a disaster for the conservative faction". If this huge service is indeed the case, it is natural that the President should respond suitably to this mandate and choose his closest ally for vice-presidency, and also demand that others not only accept his choice but also show the appropriate enthusiasm. If the conservative faction sincerely believes that the president has received such a huge mandate, they must accept the consequences of this belief, namely, that they must toe the line of the president.
Therefore, the current conservative opposition to the presidential choice is in fact an attempt to convince the President that somehow without their presence, it would have been impossible for him to obtain this huge number of votes and that the magnitude of this number has nothing to do with the characteristics of the President and his colleagues but is a direct consequence of their active support of him. This recognition would force the President to consider their interests in his choice of officials.
The struggle between the two factions ]the President and his conservative critics with regards to the choice of Vice President directly reflects what has happened during the presidential elections. If the conservative critics are forced to accept the President's choice, it means that a strong and practical effort has been made to convince all the conservative fraction that the 24 million votes associated with the President are real and that the conservative critics must confirm this. However, if the President backs down either in a direct fashion (the President chooses another individual) or indirect fashion (Rahim-Mashai gives up the post voluntarily), it signals that the conservative critics have forced the President and his cabal to comprehend that such a huge number of votes would not have been possible without their active presence, support and good will; therefore the President must concede a considerable amount of power to them.
How this ends remains to be seen.
Receive our latest updates by email or RSS- SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis
In the last week, the resurgence of the opposition movement has been parallelled by serious divisions within the regime. One catalyst for the internal arguments was President Ahmadinejad's insistence on the appointment of Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, the father of his daughter-in-law, as First Vice President. Beyond the issue of nepotism, Rahim-Mashai is disliked by many "conservatives" because of a statement indicating that Iranians are friends of all people, including Israelis.The "reformist" columnist Mohammd Abtahi, writing at the site Ayande, explains what is at stake in this showdown between conservative elements. He argues that, contrary to appearances, Ahmadinejad's stance is not foolhardy but politically necessary. (Thanks to Mani for both the tip and the translation.)
What is the relationship between the announced election results and the choice of Vice President Rashim-Mashai?
If all parties and individuals supporting the government are totally convinced that the President on 22 of Khordad (12 June) had 24 million votes, they must also logically accept that a great portion of these votes has been won as an affirmation of the President, rather than his conservative supporters. This is because these supporters, especially the more traditional elements, do not have sufficient popularity to procure this huge number of votes for the President through regular procedures.
If this logic is accepted, the President not only does not owe these conservative supporters anything, but as a matter of fact he has done them a huge service by amassing such a huge vote for the whole conservative faction through his policies or his special characteristics, thereby "avoiding a disaster for the conservative faction". If this huge service is indeed the case, it is natural that the President should respond suitably to this mandate and choose his closest ally for vice-presidency, and also demand that others not only accept his choice but also show the appropriate enthusiasm. If the conservative faction sincerely believes that the president has received such a huge mandate, they must accept the consequences of this belief, namely, that they must toe the line of the president.
Therefore, the current conservative opposition to the presidential choice is in fact an attempt to convince the President that somehow without their presence, it would have been impossible for him to obtain this huge number of votes and that the magnitude of this number has nothing to do with the characteristics of the President and his colleagues but is a direct consequence of their active support of him. This recognition would force the President to consider their interests in his choice of officials.
The struggle between the two factions ]the President and his conservative critics with regards to the choice of Vice President directly reflects what has happened during the presidential elections. If the conservative critics are forced to accept the President's choice, it means that a strong and practical effort has been made to convince all the conservative fraction that the 24 million votes associated with the President are real and that the conservative critics must confirm this. However, if the President backs down either in a direct fashion (the President chooses another individual) or indirect fashion (Rahim-Mashai gives up the post voluntarily), it signals that the conservative critics have forced the President and his cabal to comprehend that such a huge number of votes would not have been possible without their active presence, support and good will; therefore the President must concede a considerable amount of power to them.
How this ends remains to be seen.
Reader Comments (3)
[...] wollten? Die Marionette, die plötzlich mit Fäden spielt, an denen der Puppenspieler hängt? Ein iranischer Kolumnist macht folgenden interessanten [...]
Very clever analysis, never thought of it this way! It makes sense. I wonder what the end of this political game will be. In the meantime, people are being killed, imprisoned, hundred have disappeared, others have been tortured. Tyranny in all its glory. Sickening.
[...] for what this might all have been about: Iran: Ahmadinejad v. The Conservatives? | Enduring America [...]