Comments on: Iran Special Analysis: The Politics of the Tehran Trial

By: Amy

Amy — Mon, 03 Aug 2009 04:36:16 +0000

Never mind those questions…
More reading is making it ever more clear that the only hope is for the people to stand together. May God grant them courage

By: The Moderate Voice

The Moderate Voice — Mon, 03 Aug 2009 04:11:06 +0000

Iran Top Reformists To Be Put On Trial As Ahmadinejad Prepares Inauguration…

Get ready for Iran to be in pitchforked into the headlines this week as the regime there prepares to get — and to receive — a double whammy. And there could be a triple whammy, too.
First whammy: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will be inaugurated as P…

By: Amy

Amy — Mon, 03 Aug 2009 00:35:11 +0000

Arshama,
About IGRC or other plans to dispense with Rafsanjani, Moussavi and Khatami…
I can’t read the article you linked, but was wondering if you think the people would stand for it? None of the 3 seems to be leading the movement, but they are important symbolically. On the govt side, the current situation provides a convenient excuse to go after the 3, but is not the real motive. It seems like nothing is as it seems… The 3 aren’t who they appear to be to the Iranian people, who, in reality, are leading themselves. The government has ulterior motives to get rid of them and who knows the personal agenda of any of the 3.

Yet what happens to the 3 is of critical importance, maybe because of their political & clerical connections. Maybe I’m totally off base

Anyway, do you think the regime can do what they intend to do, or can public outrage prevent the govt from following through?

By: Amy

Amy — Sun, 02 Aug 2009 23:51:21 +0000

Arshama,
Thanks for your comments & the Tehran Bureau link. I appreciate articles that present the historic context & this one pulls together the political, military & religious strands, which helps a great deal.

On coup theories, I have seen alternate coup scenarios, which lead either to
1) A military government with Ahmadinejad as front man, based on his military connections and appointments.
~or~
2) A status quo result in which Ahmadinejad & Khamenei use Ahmadinejad’s militarization of the government to ensure that Khamenei’s son succeeds him as Supreme Leader.
Either way, Ahmadinejad would be amply rewarded.

Without the article, I wouldn’t have understood the significance of an outcome that involves Mesbah Yazdi but it sounds absolutely chilling. For the sake of Iran I hope that it doesn’t go in that direction.

The people of Iran are well-educated, sophisticated and tech-savvy. The tools of oppression don’t work in this kind of environment. In the long run, I just don’t see how the hardliners can pull off any of these scenarios.

By: Arshama

Arshama — Sun, 02 Aug 2009 20:23:48 +0000

Thanks for your full coverage of Iranian opposition’s views. But assessing Abtahi as the regime’s strongest card might prove wrong in the long term. Ataollah Mohajerani, Khatami’s former minister of education, judges yesterday’s show trial as a prelude to the fourth phase of a well-planned scenario to get rid of Rafsanjani, Moussavi und Khatami: http://www.khabaronline.ir/news-13818.aspx
I fully agree with him, especially with regard to the growing influence of the IGRC. Other Iranian commentators have uttered comparable warnings:
http://tehranbureau.com/the-leaders-of-iran%E2%80%99s-election-coup/
@ Amy: During the last 30 years the Islamic Republic has been in a state of constant “selection” of oppositionals. After the annihilation of leftist forces in the 80’s, moderate parties, like the National Front, were put aside or got killed in the 90’s (Forouhar, leader Nation of Iran party). Khatami’s reformist camp has certainly failed to enforce the concept of legality, due to the reasons mentioned by Kaussler and largely hampered by the radicals and Khamenei, who vetoed all important legal reforms, e.g. a new press law.
In order to create a monolithic Islamic state it is now the turn of all remaining “oppositional” forces. I doubt, however, that the putschists will be successful. Too many other forces like the clergy or regular army are left over, which certainly would not accept this paramilitary dictatorship in a Shiite guise.

By: mahasti

mahasti — Sun, 02 Aug 2009 19:03:54 +0000

The analysis is right on target. Let the past be a lesson. If the green movement makes the same mistake once it comes to power, and plays by the same IRI rules, we’ll be back where we were.

By: Amy

Amy — Sun, 02 Aug 2009 14:50:20 +0000

Al Jazeera posted an in-depth analysis of the recent events in Iran by Bernd Kaussler. I’m not well-versed enough to evaluate his remarks, but to me he seems very insightful. Comments, anyone? Here’s an excerpt:

…Khatami’s presidency was vital within the discourse of human rights in Islam for it attempted to emphasise accountability and the rule of law within Shia jurisprudence. Overall, Khatami bound his government, the judiciary as well as the legislative, to the concept of legality (qanounmndi) and highlighted the arbitrary use of power by political leaders and unelected state bodies. Unfortunately, by committing itself to the rule of law and playing by the rules, the reformist movement never questioned the very foundations of Iran’s ambiguous political system and ultimately failed to change what one could call power-based law into rights-based law.