Monday
Aug172009
Iran: Questions for the "Green Path of Hope" and for the Government
Monday, August 17, 2009 at 7:01
The Latest from Iran (17 August): Waiting for the Next Manoeuvre
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After all the manoeuvres and intrigues of the last 48 hours, this morning is wait-and-see.
On the opposition side, this has been illustrated by the confusion over the demonstration, originally scheduled for today, in front of the offices of the Etemade Melli newspaper, associated with Mehdi Karroubi. The gathering had been called by Karroubi's campaign but, after pro-Government forces did not fulfil their threat to demonstrate in front of and possibly attack the offices on Saturday, Karroubi called off today's event.
Late last night, activists around Mir Hossein Mousavi finally withdrew their "official" call to protest, but this morning the Twitter account supporting Mousavi continues to put out the message, "It's hard to undo announcement for protest. If protest goes on, it will be spontaneous and peaceful. You are media!"
The episode, which escalated from a specific situation (the defence of Etemade Melli) into debate over a general protest, is symbolic of the political challenges now facing the opposition. The immediate difficulty posed by the Government is the continuing threat of prosecution and suppression. Had the demonstration gone ahead with official backing, especially given Saturday's non-appearance by the pro-Government supporters, then Karroubi might have been subject to punishment and even detention. Even with the apparent withdrawal of an official gathering, the regime temporarily banned the publication of Etemade Melli.
The wider issue is that opposition now consists of a number of challenges to the regime, all centred around the legal, political, and religious aspects of detention, confession, and abuse. These are all significant: the Karroubi-Rafsanjani initiative for an enquiry into mistreatment of detainees, the possible query of the Supreme Leader's authority under Law 111 of Iran's Constitution, and the call for punishment of those who supervised the detention regime.
They, however, do not constitute a general "political front" or even a coordination of activity. Mir Hossein Mousavi's call on Saturday for a "Green Path of Hope" has been met by a marked silence by other opposition leaders, as they concentrate on the narrower and more immediate criticisms of the regime. While the political response is understandable, it does cause a problem for the public face of the Green movement: where now the symbolic moments for the mass expression of anger and hope that fueled the post-election response to the Government?
Meanwhile, President Ahmadinejad is trying to stop the clock ticking against his stay in office, announcing some of his Cabinet choices on Sunday and promising that all others will be placed before the Parliament on Tuesday. That is a down-to-the-wire strategy, given the deadline of Wednesday. While the conservative and principlist anger with the President has been muted over the weekend, it has not necessarily dissipated.
So, for the moment, as the Green movement considers its next waves, watch for the ripples within the Establishment. Will Parliament strike back at Ahmadinejad? And, given the continuing clerical and political statements and meetings over Law 111 (the latest being Mohammad Khatami's audience with former MPs), how secure is the Supreme Leader?
Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis
After all the manoeuvres and intrigues of the last 48 hours, this morning is wait-and-see.On the opposition side, this has been illustrated by the confusion over the demonstration, originally scheduled for today, in front of the offices of the Etemade Melli newspaper, associated with Mehdi Karroubi. The gathering had been called by Karroubi's campaign but, after pro-Government forces did not fulfil their threat to demonstrate in front of and possibly attack the offices on Saturday, Karroubi called off today's event.
Late last night, activists around Mir Hossein Mousavi finally withdrew their "official" call to protest, but this morning the Twitter account supporting Mousavi continues to put out the message, "It's hard to undo announcement for protest. If protest goes on, it will be spontaneous and peaceful. You are media!"
The episode, which escalated from a specific situation (the defence of Etemade Melli) into debate over a general protest, is symbolic of the political challenges now facing the opposition. The immediate difficulty posed by the Government is the continuing threat of prosecution and suppression. Had the demonstration gone ahead with official backing, especially given Saturday's non-appearance by the pro-Government supporters, then Karroubi might have been subject to punishment and even detention. Even with the apparent withdrawal of an official gathering, the regime temporarily banned the publication of Etemade Melli.
The wider issue is that opposition now consists of a number of challenges to the regime, all centred around the legal, political, and religious aspects of detention, confession, and abuse. These are all significant: the Karroubi-Rafsanjani initiative for an enquiry into mistreatment of detainees, the possible query of the Supreme Leader's authority under Law 111 of Iran's Constitution, and the call for punishment of those who supervised the detention regime.
They, however, do not constitute a general "political front" or even a coordination of activity. Mir Hossein Mousavi's call on Saturday for a "Green Path of Hope" has been met by a marked silence by other opposition leaders, as they concentrate on the narrower and more immediate criticisms of the regime. While the political response is understandable, it does cause a problem for the public face of the Green movement: where now the symbolic moments for the mass expression of anger and hope that fueled the post-election response to the Government?
Meanwhile, President Ahmadinejad is trying to stop the clock ticking against his stay in office, announcing some of his Cabinet choices on Sunday and promising that all others will be placed before the Parliament on Tuesday. That is a down-to-the-wire strategy, given the deadline of Wednesday. While the conservative and principlist anger with the President has been muted over the weekend, it has not necessarily dissipated.
So, for the moment, as the Green movement considers its next waves, watch for the ripples within the Establishment. Will Parliament strike back at Ahmadinejad? And, given the continuing clerical and political statements and meetings over Law 111 (the latest being Mohammad Khatami's audience with former MPs), how secure is the Supreme Leader?
Reader Comments (2)
"where now the symbolic moments for the mass expression of anger and hope that fueled the post-election response to the Government?"
Just like a river in the sand, its impetus is being absorbed by the too shy opponents' meanderings through the official institutions' maze; each time one of them takes a step forward (Karroubi's explicit statements about rape and torture in his letter)he takes one or two steps backward (the same Karroubi putting off and then cancelling the demonstration at his newspaper's offices and even thanking the security forces for their protection!)
People around the world who have been following this election- and the mayhem following it- will want to find out how to get involved in this movement and what we can do to help. Has Mousavi set a website for it and how do we register our interest? People have been so involved in twitter and blogs like this and have felt so much for the Iranians. Does anyone know?