Saturday
Aug222009
The Latest from Iran (22 August): A Pause for Ramadan?
Saturday, August 22, 2009 at 17:09
The Latest from Iran (23 August): An Anti-Ahmadinejad Bloc?
Iran's Most Wanted: Defense Minister Vahidi and the Interpol Warrant
The Latest from Iran (21 August): Political Battles
Video: The Sohrab Protests (20 August)
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2150 GMT: Before shutting down for the night, one more foreshadowing of our analysis tomorrow on "The Anti-Ahmadinejad Compromise". An EA correspondent offers further evidence. Mir Hossein Mousavi, in a meeting at the house of Dr. Mohsen Mirdamadi (who has subsequently been arrested) with the families of some of the detainee, said, "Principalists that have a conscience are separating themselves from the power-hungry fraction."
2130 GMT: Rafsanjani - We Told You So. A few hours after declaring that Rafsanjani was "closing ranks" with the Supreme Leader, the National Iranian American Council has discovered what we knew all along: Rafsanjani and his party are maintaining their flexibility, especially with their challenge to President Ahmadinejad. The NIAC reveals from the Iranian site Javan-e Farda that Rafsanjani's party is backing Mehdi Karroubi's position on detainees (which we picked up from Rafsanjani's speech today --- see 1715 GMT):
1715 GMT: The Anti-Ahmadinejad Compromise. After an unexpectedly lively Saturday afternoon, tomorrow's analysis (which in fact is what we've been projecting for weeks) is shaping up: there is a convergence of disparate forces agreeing on the need to curb the President's authority. In part, that comes from a closer consideration of Hashemi Rafsanjani's statement (which, apart from its declaration of loyalty to the Supreme Leader, is actually pretty close to the recent statements of Mehdi Karroubi). In part, it comes from news such as this....
The "conservative" newspaper Jomhori Eslami has declared, "The abuse of prisoners is undeniable," citing the Supreme Leader's closure of Kahrizak detention center. Furthermore, "bringing up issues such as velvet revolution" are "fanciful fairy
tales" that must not be repeated, since "these claims have no effect other than providing a service to Iran's enemies by implying that the USA is very strong and has a very strong influence upon Iranian internal affairs".
The newspaper suggests that both "reformist" and "conservative" blocs "must accept mistakes they have made before and after the election, as accepting these realities is a step towards solving the existing problems".
1650 GMT: Just In Case You Were Wondering What the Revolutionary Guard Would Say (Because You Had Been Asleep for Weeks). Commander Mohammad Ali Jafari, talking to Basij forces, "revealed" that foreign elements were behind the post-election unrest.
1645 GMT: And yet another reason. Parleman News has posted a summary of Rafsanjani's statement: the support for the Supreme Leader is in conjunction with a call for all to uphold the Constitution and follow guidelines in areas such as detentions. Violators should be punished.
1630 GMT: Another reason why Hashemi Rafsanjani's statement at the Expediency Council today should not be seen as a surrender (1530 and 1600 GMT): President Ahmadinejad was not at the meeting.
1620 GMT: The Regime Piles on Pressure? Our concern at a possible step-up in detentions of "reformists" (1245 and 1310 GMT) appears to be borne out. Mohammad Maleki, the 76-year-old former Dean of Tehran University, has been arrested.
1610 GMT: Oh, Please. Not even Press TV is buying this Government line, which comes out after reports noting that the nominee for Minister of Defense, Ahmad Vahidi, is wanted by Interpol for alleged involvement in a 1994 bombing of a Jewish centre in Buenos Aires (see separate story). Note the scare quotes in this opening paragraph:
1600 GMT: In case you're wondering after our previous entry, Rafsanjani's website offers no mention, let alone commentary, on the former President's statement at the Expediency Council.
1530 GMT: Hashemi's Surrender to Khamenei? Not quite.
The National Iranian American Council is making a big deal of Rafsanjani's opening statement at the Expediency Council today, claiming, "it now appears that he is closing ranks with supreme leader Ali Khamenei". It based the analysis on an Agence France Presse reports, quoting from Iranian news agencies, "Powerful cleric Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani urged Iran’s warring political groups on Saturday to follow the orders of supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei for ending the present political turmoil."
Hmm....The actual statement from Rafsanjani, according to the story, was “the current situation needs everyone to observe the leader’s decrees and advice". That's both very general and far from out-of-line with his stance since 12 June. The former Rafsanjani has never come out in direct opposition to Khamenei; any fight he has is with President Ahmadinejad.
Especially given the setting, a gathering of one of Iran's most powerful bodies, Rafsanjani's statement is simply that he is not taking apart the system of ultimate clerical authority. It remains to be seen where he takes his next step against the political leaders in that system. One could just as easily say, "Rafsanjani is hoping supreme leader Ali Khamenei closes ranks with him."
1325 GMT: Another Symbol for the Movement? We are getting a lot of correspondence from readers today about the testimony of a 15-year-old boy, summarised in The Times of London today, who claims he was raped in detention "in a large provincial city".
As journalism, there has to be some caution about the story as it is offered anonymously --- The Times uses a pseudonym for the teenager --- and cannot be verified. As politics (and, more importantly, as a story of humanity and inhumanity), it has to be recognised. In the words of The Times, "Reza is living proof of the charges levelled by Mehdi Karoubi."
1310 GMT: Very Disturbing Signals. Reports are coming in via Twitter of political activists, including Mehdi Karroubi's son, being arrested and summoned to the Government workers' court. We are seeking confirmation.1300 GMT: Be Our Friend. If I were a cynic (which I am not), I would say the Ahmadinejad Government had motives beyond economic co-operation in this development:
I presume none of these companies are from "foreign countries" accused by other Iranian officials of fomenting velvet revolution.
1250 GMT: Alireza Beheshti, Mir Hossein Mousavi's chief advisor, has extended Mousavi's recent comments about Election Day and its immediate aftermath. He claims that Mousavi’s campaign had meetings with the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, and the judiciary to resolve the issues from the Presidential vote, but there were no will to do so. According to Beheshti, the campaign had reports that Mousavi was ahead in the vote but had signals that there might be manipulation of the ballots as early as 2 p.m. on Election Day.
Beheshti also told Etemaad that he and his family are ready to be arrested.
1245 GMT: A reliable Twitter source says Ebrahim Mehtari of the Mojahedin-Enghelab political party and Campaign 88 has been arrested.
1010 GMT: Take Your Book and Go Home. Authorities have responded to Ayatollah Sane'i's scathing video criticism of the regime by barring his religious monograph from the 17th Koran Exhibition in Tehran.
1000 GMT: Judicial Manoeuvres. The head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, is still looking for a replacement for Tehran's Chief Prosecutor, Saeed Mortazavi.
0900 GMT: Battle of the Clerics. Parleman News follows up the story of the contrasting Friday prayer sermons in Tehran and Qom (see yesterday's updates and 0530 GMT), comparing the hard-line address of Ayatollah Jannati and the criticism of the regime by Ayatollah Amini.
0530 GMT: The holy month of Ramadan, in which Muslims abstain from eating, drinking, and smoking from dawn until dusk, has begun. The Supreme Leader's Office announced the start, based on expert sightings of the new month's moon. So have a quartet of Ayatollahs who have challenged the Government: Montazeri, Sanei, Bayat-Zanjani and Sistani.
Unsurprisingly, the day has begun quietly. Interestingly, the ripples of political challenge are on Press TV's website. It reports that "principlist" MP Ali Motahari, whose public criticism of the Ahmadinjead Administration emerged last month, has called the President's proposed Cabinet "feeble and not proportional to the country's capacities". His far-from-subtle attack claimed Ahmadinejad had picked Ministers for loyalty, not expertise: "Dependent cabinet members would deprive the government of reflective and clear-sighted staff....The President wants to control and rule sensitive ministries like the Intelligence, Interior, Oil, (Islamic) Guidance, and Foreign Affairs, therefore he has chosen dependent nominees to the posts."
The other story that continues to resonate on the website is the post from last night, "In Iran, arrest of opposition leaders is hot topic". The analysis is far from a condemnation of the regime: it features Ayatollah Jannati's call in Friday prayers for the detention of "ringleaders" of post-election demonstrations". At the same time, it frames those protests as legitimate, effectively questioning if not undermining Jannati's demand:
Iran's Most Wanted: Defense Minister Vahidi and the Interpol Warrant
The Latest from Iran (21 August): Political Battles
Video: The Sohrab Protests (20 August)
Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis
2150 GMT: Before shutting down for the night, one more foreshadowing of our analysis tomorrow on "The Anti-Ahmadinejad Compromise". An EA correspondent offers further evidence. Mir Hossein Mousavi, in a meeting at the house of Dr. Mohsen Mirdamadi (who has subsequently been arrested) with the families of some of the detainee, said, "Principalists that have a conscience are separating themselves from the power-hungry fraction."
2130 GMT: Rafsanjani - We Told You So. A few hours after declaring that Rafsanjani was "closing ranks" with the Supreme Leader, the National Iranian American Council has discovered what we knew all along: Rafsanjani and his party are maintaining their flexibility, especially with their challenge to President Ahmadinejad. The NIAC reveals from the Iranian site Javan-e Farda that Rafsanjani's party is backing Mehdi Karroubi's position on detainees (which we picked up from Rafsanjani's speech today --- see 1715 GMT):
The Executives of Construction has released a statement announcing full support of Mehdi Karroubi’s position on the harassment issue. “Karroubi’s bravery, courage, and his compassionate approach in rooting out the current corruption in the country’s security and judicial apparatuses, is not only worthy of attention and congratulations, but has brought about an invasion of repeated attacks by various people and groups in the name of ‘defending the system.’ These behaviors serve as evidence of the ridiculousness of trying to combat reality.”
1715 GMT: The Anti-Ahmadinejad Compromise. After an unexpectedly lively Saturday afternoon, tomorrow's analysis (which in fact is what we've been projecting for weeks) is shaping up: there is a convergence of disparate forces agreeing on the need to curb the President's authority. In part, that comes from a closer consideration of Hashemi Rafsanjani's statement (which, apart from its declaration of loyalty to the Supreme Leader, is actually pretty close to the recent statements of Mehdi Karroubi). In part, it comes from news such as this....
The "conservative" newspaper Jomhori Eslami has declared, "The abuse of prisoners is undeniable," citing the Supreme Leader's closure of Kahrizak detention center. Furthermore, "bringing up issues such as velvet revolution" are "fanciful fairy
tales" that must not be repeated, since "these claims have no effect other than providing a service to Iran's enemies by implying that the USA is very strong and has a very strong influence upon Iranian internal affairs".
The newspaper suggests that both "reformist" and "conservative" blocs "must accept mistakes they have made before and after the election, as accepting these realities is a step towards solving the existing problems".
1650 GMT: Just In Case You Were Wondering What the Revolutionary Guard Would Say (Because You Had Been Asleep for Weeks). Commander Mohammad Ali Jafari, talking to Basij forces, "revealed" that foreign elements were behind the post-election unrest.
1645 GMT: And yet another reason. Parleman News has posted a summary of Rafsanjani's statement: the support for the Supreme Leader is in conjunction with a call for all to uphold the Constitution and follow guidelines in areas such as detentions. Violators should be punished.
1630 GMT: Another reason why Hashemi Rafsanjani's statement at the Expediency Council today should not be seen as a surrender (1530 and 1600 GMT): President Ahmadinejad was not at the meeting.
1620 GMT: The Regime Piles on Pressure? Our concern at a possible step-up in detentions of "reformists" (1245 and 1310 GMT) appears to be borne out. Mohammad Maleki, the 76-year-old former Dean of Tehran University, has been arrested.
1610 GMT: Oh, Please. Not even Press TV is buying this Government line, which comes out after reports noting that the nominee for Minister of Defense, Ahmad Vahidi, is wanted by Interpol for alleged involvement in a 1994 bombing of a Jewish centre in Buenos Aires (see separate story). Note the scare quotes in this opening paragraph:
Iran says the international reaction to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's nominee for defense minister is a “Zionist plot” to undermine the new Iranian administration.
“[Ahmad] Vahidi was a deputy defense minister and this is a very senior political position,” Ahmadinejad's press adviser, Ali-Akbar Javanfekr, told AFP [Agence France Presse]. "Therefore it seems that this is a new trick being planned and is basically a Zionist plot."
1600 GMT: In case you're wondering after our previous entry, Rafsanjani's website offers no mention, let alone commentary, on the former President's statement at the Expediency Council.
1530 GMT: Hashemi's Surrender to Khamenei? Not quite.
The National Iranian American Council is making a big deal of Rafsanjani's opening statement at the Expediency Council today, claiming, "it now appears that he is closing ranks with supreme leader Ali Khamenei". It based the analysis on an Agence France Presse reports, quoting from Iranian news agencies, "Powerful cleric Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani urged Iran’s warring political groups on Saturday to follow the orders of supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei for ending the present political turmoil."
Hmm....The actual statement from Rafsanjani, according to the story, was “the current situation needs everyone to observe the leader’s decrees and advice". That's both very general and far from out-of-line with his stance since 12 June. The former Rafsanjani has never come out in direct opposition to Khamenei; any fight he has is with President Ahmadinejad.
Especially given the setting, a gathering of one of Iran's most powerful bodies, Rafsanjani's statement is simply that he is not taking apart the system of ultimate clerical authority. It remains to be seen where he takes his next step against the political leaders in that system. One could just as easily say, "Rafsanjani is hoping supreme leader Ali Khamenei closes ranks with him."
1325 GMT: Another Symbol for the Movement? We are getting a lot of correspondence from readers today about the testimony of a 15-year-old boy, summarised in The Times of London today, who claims he was raped in detention "in a large provincial city".
As journalism, there has to be some caution about the story as it is offered anonymously --- The Times uses a pseudonym for the teenager --- and cannot be verified. As politics (and, more importantly, as a story of humanity and inhumanity), it has to be recognised. In the words of The Times, "Reza is living proof of the charges levelled by Mehdi Karoubi."
1310 GMT: Very Disturbing Signals. Reports are coming in via Twitter of political activists, including Mehdi Karroubi's son, being arrested and summoned to the Government workers' court. We are seeking confirmation.1300 GMT: Be Our Friend. If I were a cynic (which I am not), I would say the Ahmadinejad Government had motives beyond economic co-operation in this development:
Iran plans to offer the majority of stake in a liquefied natural gas (LNG) production project to European companies, says a top Iranian energy official.
Three European companies have voiced interest in buying 80 percent of Iran LNG project, Mehr news agency quoted Ali Kheirandish, the head of Iran LNG Company, as saying on Saturday.
I presume none of these companies are from "foreign countries" accused by other Iranian officials of fomenting velvet revolution.
1250 GMT: Alireza Beheshti, Mir Hossein Mousavi's chief advisor, has extended Mousavi's recent comments about Election Day and its immediate aftermath. He claims that Mousavi’s campaign had meetings with the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, and the judiciary to resolve the issues from the Presidential vote, but there were no will to do so. According to Beheshti, the campaign had reports that Mousavi was ahead in the vote but had signals that there might be manipulation of the ballots as early as 2 p.m. on Election Day.
Beheshti also told Etemaad that he and his family are ready to be arrested.
1245 GMT: A reliable Twitter source says Ebrahim Mehtari of the Mojahedin-Enghelab political party and Campaign 88 has been arrested.
1010 GMT: Take Your Book and Go Home. Authorities have responded to Ayatollah Sane'i's scathing video criticism of the regime by barring his religious monograph from the 17th Koran Exhibition in Tehran.
1000 GMT: Judicial Manoeuvres. The head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, is still looking for a replacement for Tehran's Chief Prosecutor, Saeed Mortazavi.
0900 GMT: Battle of the Clerics. Parleman News follows up the story of the contrasting Friday prayer sermons in Tehran and Qom (see yesterday's updates and 0530 GMT), comparing the hard-line address of Ayatollah Jannati and the criticism of the regime by Ayatollah Amini.
0530 GMT: The holy month of Ramadan, in which Muslims abstain from eating, drinking, and smoking from dawn until dusk, has begun. The Supreme Leader's Office announced the start, based on expert sightings of the new month's moon. So have a quartet of Ayatollahs who have challenged the Government: Montazeri, Sanei, Bayat-Zanjani and Sistani.
Unsurprisingly, the day has begun quietly. Interestingly, the ripples of political challenge are on Press TV's website. It reports that "principlist" MP Ali Motahari, whose public criticism of the Ahmadinjead Administration emerged last month, has called the President's proposed Cabinet "feeble and not proportional to the country's capacities". His far-from-subtle attack claimed Ahmadinejad had picked Ministers for loyalty, not expertise: "Dependent cabinet members would deprive the government of reflective and clear-sighted staff....The President wants to control and rule sensitive ministries like the Intelligence, Interior, Oil, (Islamic) Guidance, and Foreign Affairs, therefore he has chosen dependent nominees to the posts."
The other story that continues to resonate on the website is the post from last night, "In Iran, arrest of opposition leaders is hot topic". The analysis is far from a condemnation of the regime: it features Ayatollah Jannati's call in Friday prayers for the detention of "ringleaders" of post-election demonstrations". At the same time, it frames those protests as legitimate, effectively questioning if not undermining Jannati's demand:
The re-election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as president on June 12 sparked an outpouring of anger and contempt among Iranians and massive demonstrations were staged by supporters of defeated presidential candidates Mir-Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi who claim the vote was "fraudulent".
tagged Agence France Presse, Ahmad Vahidi, Ali Akbar Javanfekr, Ali Motahari, Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Ayatollah Ali Sistani, Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani, Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri, Ayatollah Yousuf Sane'i, Ebrahim Mehtari, Iran, Iran Elections 2009, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Mehdi Karroubi, Mohammad Ali Jafari, Mohammad Maleki, Mohammad Sadegh Larijani, Mohsen Mirdamadi, Mojahedin-Enghelab, Press TV, Ramadan, Saeed Mortazavi in Middle East & Iran
Agence France Presse, Ahmad Vahidi, Ali Akbar Javanfekr, Ali Motahari, Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Ayatollah Ali Sistani, Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani, Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri, Ayatollah Yousuf Sane'i, Ebrahim Mehtari, Iran, Iran Elections 2009, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Mehdi Karroubi, Mohammad Ali Jafari, Mohammad Maleki, Mohammad Sadegh Larijani, Mohsen Mirdamadi, Mojahedin-Enghelab, Press TV, Ramadan, Saeed Mortazavi in Middle East & Iran
Reader Comments (24)
what is the week end in Iran? friday and saturday? do people work on sundays? thanks in advance for a reply.
People work on Saturday and Sunday.
Friday is the FREE-day where one has the day off.
Some usually stop working on thursday very early afternoon.
thanks a lot for the information, Afshin
Do people work as usual during Ramadan?
In Press TV, riots and rioters have turned into protests and demonstrators in recent weeks
Oh wow... What I was so afaid of the last few days seems to be happening...
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hxm3f-S0sLHHgwJrQOKfBaYT1eeA
This is very disturbing indeed... The Source seems rather reliable.
It looks and sounds like betrayal (although actually, Raf was careful never to very clearly support the opposition).
... Unless it is one of Raf's tortuous manoeuvres but in that case, I can't figure what he may be scheming...
Any hypothesis, Scott?
For the most optimist among us one could say that Hashemi is a bit smarter then A.N and knows that one can not fight everyone at the same time.
He allies with his old friend Khamenei and attacks with his support his main enemy A.N (and the Guards). Getting rid of the angry violent dog the S.L is reduced to a weakend old sick man making him a easier target.
Note that in his speech he more or less demands that one needs to follow the Supreme leader but is quick to emphesise that the S.L. advice on the issue of political detainees jailed in the aftermath of the election must be followed.
"The way out of the current situation is commitment to the leader's advice on detainees of recent events and RETRIEVING THE RIGHTS OF THOSE WHOSE RIGHTS HAVE BEEN VIOLATED"
This is a signal of peace to the S.L and a direct attack on A.N, BASIJ and the GUARDS.
Afshin
My first reaction was "Oh, no..." But then it seems that the surface reading doesn't mean much when it come to Rafsanjani.
On second reading:
"The way out of the current situation is commitment to the leader's advice on detainees of recent events and retrieving the rights of those whose rights have been violated" ...
He speaks of the rights of the detainees, but emphasizes the recommendations of the SL, which means what we already have seen... or does it? There have been many off-camera meetings with SL. Might they have made an arrangement to change the policies regarding detainees & maybe opposition leaders in exchange for a cooling-off period?
Your theory of joining forces against AN makes a lot of sense-- maybe the 2 realize they have a better chance vs AN & his minions if they work together. They can deal with each other later
Is Mehdi Karroubi's attempt to address the violence against detainees undermined in this statement?
I'm still on the edge of my seat...
@Amy
What this basically means is that we are back to square 1. (Unless Hashemi is signing a devils pact where he unites with S.L only to backstab him later once the dog is killed or brought back under control)
lests not forget who the so called heros of this movement are Hashemi, Khatami, Mousavi and Karoubi..
Karoubi has been speaker of parliment
Mousavi 2 time Primeminister under President KHAMENEI now S.L
Hashemi 2 times President
Khatami 2 times president
I seriously doubt if having these people back in power united with the S.L is going to bring the country much change, more democracy or freedom.
so my first reaction is OH NO...Having thought about it some more my second reactios is OHHHH NOOOOOO
Afshin
It's like watching people who have been playing chess with each other every day for more than 30 years. They know everything about each other's game. They don't even have to talk much. Unfortunately you have watched them so long that you have a good idea where the game is going. Of course the tail of the dog can knock the pieces off the board when he walks through the room. I hope the wind blows the board off the table & onto the floor.
I guess what you are saying is that any agreement between Rafsanjani & SL may reference the detainees but their well being is peripheral to the game
This is so discouraging. People are still being abused in Prisons, so what advise of the SL does Rafsanjani want the people to follow? The one that he promised to kill them if the defy him?
@DMNARI
No basically use the unjustice that is done to the peolple as an excuse to rid the goverment of the GUARDS influence. Later perhaps also reduce the financial interests of the Guards in the economy.
Hashemi has made his move and its now up to the GUARDS (A.N) to step up. I seriously doubt A.N caving in or starting to Panic. This will mean escalation of the situation. This is a power struggle and a titanic one.
Untill now the Guards Coup has been from the inside, starting at the bottom and moving up. This tactic has been very succesfull leading to many old Guards going into politics as Mayors, Governors, Representatives, Ministers, etc etc. but it has always been a non violent takeover of the power from the inside. If at one point the Guards are pushed back to an extent that they stand with their backs against the wall (mind u holding the guns), how will they react ? In other words can the situation increase the possibility of a military coup by the Guards? Unfortunatly I do not have enough knowledge and inside info to be able to make any judgment on that.
Afshin,
I hope you are correct. from the RAND study about the Guards, I don't think they will relinquish power easily. From a lot of accounts, and also judging by Ahmadinejad's cabinet, they are consolidating their power. Their share of the economy has increased under Ahmadinejad to the extent that other private companies are not significant, and they looting the country of the oil money that has poured in during recent years.
It is funny Ahmadinejad constantly talks about corruption and cronyism, he is the chief crony; stacking all facets of government with his guard cronies.
Hashemi has made his move, It is now the Guards, S.L and Reformists turn.
- Reformist will most probably do what they have been doing, Keeping a low profile
- A.N and The Guards, will probably increase pressure, offense is the best defense and suits A.N style.
- But what about the S.L and the conservatives. The showdown in the Parliment should cast some light on that the coming week.
I like the reformist move of playing up the abuses of the prisoners; an ISLAMIC system can't abuse prisoners, so they are turning the religious argument against A.N. and his group.
Do you see SL's son Mojtaba as a major player? Some analysts portray him as orchestrating the election coup & subsequent crackdown. He was presented as a bridge between SL & AN, a position which conveniently positioned him well to become next SL. Is there anything to that view?. Is he a broker in the system? If it came to a split, would he go with Dad? To what degree are the assorted militias behind him, if at all?
I really dont know how much push he has. He is supposed to be having alot of weight in the Basij but the position of SL for Mojtaba is simply out of the question.
Afshin, you said:
"I seriously doubt if having these people back in power united with the S.L is going to bring the country much change, more democracy or freedom."
So do I ! and I really feel angry at them (even more so than at AN and Co) because the people have run enormous risks, they have endangered themselves, they have hoped but their claims will merely be made use of in the ongoing fight.
But whatever the outcome, a big step has been made: more and more Iranians don't believe in the "holiness" of the SL and the whole islamic system anymore; they see through it, they can no longer be intimidated into thinking there's no way out of the islamic republic
[...] as easily say, “Rafsanjani is hoping supreme leader Ali Khamenei closes ranks with him.” The Latest from Iran (22 August): A Pause for Ramadan? | Enduring America __________________ Payandeh Iran, Sarfaraz [...]
@ florence Achard
Yes I agree and think as well the majority of the Iranians do not support this goverment, the S.L or even the Islamic Republic.
However protests or a movement needs leaders. where will the people be if the opposition becomes yet again the very heart of the establishment ?
This mind you is just thinking out loud, we are yet to see how things will unfold, how each group will react to their enemies and allies next move.
But in general the people need leaders, infact they need united leaders same as it was the case +30 years ago.
U had Khomeini, u had the Mijahedin, you had incredible numbers of diffrent Communist parties. People followed these leaders and these leaders all united against the shah.
The main opposition in Iran these days comes from within, players who were all very much part of the establishment, they have a long and DIRTY history themselves and have formed the opposition. But what happens if they are let back in the innercirle to positions of power, what if they no longer are the opposition ? Who will the people turn to then?
Again this is just a whole lotta if's and but's. Please dont see this as a given. We have to wait and see perhaps I am just being very pssimistic and one or more of the opposition figures actually are changed men and are really fighting for more rights for the people, more democracy, more freedom, more social and cultural openness. Time will tell
Afshin,
I agree that people need leaders, but what if the people were USING Moussavi and Karroubi while not really believing them and waiting for them to get back in the inner circle to push forcibly their own agenda? of course, this may be only wishful thinking!
Yes they may be using them as an excuse offcourse but was khatami not till 5 years ago in the inner circle? was it not under khatami that the students were slaughterd ten years ago? Was Hashemi not 8 years president before Khatami and mousavi 8 years before him Prime Minister ? You cant get much more inner circle then these people have been allready. Did they do much for democracy and freedom then, or did they at best look the other way when people got murdered ?
I agree that people are sick and tired and will use any means to show their dissatisfaction. To do that succesfully such as the million men marches they need leadership but I am not sure if these leaders are truly changed men or willing to still stick their neck out for people after they are back in positions of power.
Good night Afshin, I hope tomorrow we'll get food for hope!