Iran: Josh Shahryar's Snap Analysis of the Supreme Leader's Speech

Iran: The Translation of the Supreme Leader's Friday Prayer Address (Part 1)
The Latest from Iran (11 September): Prayers and Politics
Iran: Questions on Prayer Day


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While I catch up with EA staff on their reading of the Supreme Leader's speech, here's a snap analysis from our colleague Josh Shahryar, who is also providing an English translation of the speech that we'll post later this afternoon:

The IRGC [Revolutionary Guard] is very much in charge of the latest round of arrests. Ahmadinejad seems to be more powerful then before. Khamenei needs support in the face of clerical opposition so he's caving in to their demands, but he's softening his tone because he fears more reprisals from Qom. For now, it seems that the reformist leaders will stay out of prison until Quds Day.

Comments

[Homs]

Thanks a lot Mr. Shahriar as always very informative and excellent.

[RP]

Perhaps I am being more pessimistic but my impression from listening to the sermon is that Khamenei is warning a lot of people not to think that they are beyond reproach or guaranteed a seat at the table based on previous service to the revolution. He stated that (analogous to Ali) Khomeini dealt with the differences and clashing personalities of the IRI in different ways depending on the character and depth of disagreement. But that when someone stepped outside the system regardless of their exalted position and service to the IRI he would confront them. He says something like '[the Imam would confront a person] even above prime minister', a reference to Montazeri's falling from grace.
I would read this like a warning to Rafsanjani, Karroubi and Mousavi that there is no revolutionary CV in the world that can absolve you if you are being identified as an enemy of the system.
He then basically revives the Ahmadinejad line of 'we have strayed from the path of true Islam and the true teachings of the Imam'. From university to politics we have to go back to our roots, and all the slogans of the early years are as valid today. In short revolutionary fervour can never grow old (and insisting on that is usually a good sign that they have indeed grown old!) and anyone who says differently wants the trappings of an ISLAMIC republic but secretly covets secularism (he used the term himself).
While you could say that his insitence on the validity and legitimacy of criticism is conciliatory the crux is that the criticism has to be identified as consistent with the 'system' and since he is the one to define the limits of what the system can tolerate he can still brandish people as apostates of the system as it were.

[Mehran]

Well said RP! In other words, foget Ali or for that matter Khomeini's refrences and stories, What I say goes! Well, we all knew that!

[ZG]

Just get rid of these nutters in power. Dont mix politics with religeon, it just does no work.