Iran: So, What Are the Green Movement's Goals Tomorrow?

Qods Day: A Protest For Palestine or Against Iran’s Government?
Iran’s Chess Match: Setting Up the Pieces for Friday
The Latest from Iran (17 September): Tomorrow

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Last night EA's Chris Emery sent me this challenging question:

"What do you think the Green Movement consider to be their achievable aims on Friday and, more generally, beyond that? What would be their ideal result?

"My view is that the Green Movement is unsure what is achievable now and aim simply to demonstrate that they have not gone away (an achievement in itself --- but not necessarily leverage). Sadly, I think the authorities probably have a clearer idea of their aims and consider most of them, but not all, achievable."

This was my immediate reply:

The immediate aim? Stand up to Ahmadinejad.

I appreciate the wider points about aims but just surviving after everything thrown at the movement would be a victory. It maintains some space for all the complex negotiations going on in Tehran and Qom.

For me, if the President succeeds, this is no longer an Islamic Republic. Karroubi and senior clerics are saying this but they need the public display if they're to have any traction against the forces around Ahmadinejad.

Chris' response:

I agree both on the aim and the achievement of still making noise. It would be a victory but how will it limit the President's power? If Ahmadinejad's aim is to establish a military dictatorship and the Supreme Leader's is to preserve the authority of his office, then I think these demonstrations put much more pressure on the Supreme Leader than on Ahmadinejad. The President seems unconcerned by his lack of legitimacy and confident of the loyalty and capability of the security services. Ayatollah Khamenei has placed his lot with a man who literally is not bothered by the protests.

In regard to the complex negotiations in Tehran and Qom, you have to ask why they need more space and how they will use it. Are they hoping that the demos will somehow make a strategy for limiting Ahmadinejad's power clearer? Are they hoping that Ahmadinejad will have his wings clipped by the Supreme Leader? I think that rather than the people providing space for never-ending complex negotiations, which have now been rumbling on for more 3 months, those in the negotiations need to provide the space for the people by showing some real leadership. Open letters to the Supreme Leader backed by real threats, strikes, etc.

But they won't, and I expect that Ahmadinejad will get up on friday and say I won, I am your President, my mandate is to root out those contaminating the revolution or acting as foreign agents. You will not win. In other words, your demonstrations do not scare me.

I think that in the long term, the genie will never go back in the bottle and that is the Green movement's fantastuc legacy. However, in the short term, they need some direction if they are to persuade the Supreme Leader that the situation demands some immediate concessions.

Over the next 24 hours, we'll be debating this question, with other EA staff putting in their views and, of course, welcoming the thoughts of our readers.

Tomorrow is Qods Day.

Comments

[ehsan]

please do not refer to A.N. as the president

thanks

[Adam]

I am also frustrated by the apparent aimlessness of the Green movement at this point. When the riots/protests began after the elections, a regime change from within seemed an imminent possibility, but the drift and perhaps over-caution of Mousavi and Rafsanjani seemed to demote the protests to a symbolic level.

On the other hand, I'm not sure if anyone thought that over 3 months after the elections people would still be protesting and shouting "Magd bar dictator" from their rooftops. I also didn't think it possible that all of the major players would still be contesting the validity of the election as loudly as they were the day after. So to say that the regime has won is not exactly correct either (particularly with Karroubi gaining popularity by putting a spotlight on prison rapes and other regime abuses within Iran and in clear view of the international community).

A more accurate reading would probably be that the 2 sides are at an uneasy stalemate. Green Qods day might be an attempt to break that stalemate. Since it is far more planned and using an officially sponsored event as a backdrop, the numbers involved in these protests nationally may be in the millions, and that could be enough to embolden Mousavi and Rafsanjani, or fence-sitters in the military into demanding an end to the stalemate as it is clear that the regime is unable to manage the streets and that situation is unlikely to change soon.

[Hamid]

The fact is that the regime has not been able to steam roll over the opposition in spite of the ferocity of the crackdown. Every day the resistance survives increases the chances of an unforeseen event causing great damage to the regime. Attacking Khomeini's family is yet another step that will increase friction with otherwise loyal supporters. The goal for the Greens must be for now to remain a visible thorn in the regime's side.

[Samuel]

The govt. is in pretty good position to handle anything the Greens throw their way. Quods day is, for obvious reasons, an excellent, tailor made day for the most ardent supporters of the revolution to be energized.

Contrary to the conventional wisdom the Basij and their allies are stronger than ever and their morale is sky high following the very strong, extremely forceful, inspirational sermon by the SL last week. (Complete video of the Sermon here:
http://www.shiatv.net/view_video.php?viewkey=ee6179bfc4bcb64bbbfb&page=&viewtype=&category=

Let's not overlook the fact that many recent govt. pronouncements have put the Basij front and center in the cultural battle which awaits for the defense of the revolution.

It is 1986 again and the Basij are leading the advance in protecting the revolution, only this time the enemy is not Saddam's army. If "Every day is Ashura and every Land is Karbala" then surely every day is a great day to fight for the Revolution of the Ayatollah Khomeini.

[Samuel]

The Basij, by the way, are not the uneducated, easily manipulated, zombies of reformist Propaganda. Nor are they a force that can be in any way manipulated against the interests of the SL.

Everyone forgets that when AN defied (FOR A VERY SHORT TIME) the SL over the appointment of a first Vice President it was the Student Basij which raised its voice the loudest in condemning such a position and demanding that the will of the Islamic Jurisprudent be followed.

[Rev. Magdalen]

What Samuel forgets about the true "leverage" or value of having a protest where millions of people stand shoulder to shoulder and sing and chant or even all stay silent at once, the purpose of doing that is to remind the dictators that those people don't HAVE to stand dignified and calm like that.

They COULD, for example, overwhelm the pathetic security forces and tear Evin prison brick from brick. But they won't. Because they're not bullies or thugs, they're civilized people who just want to be free, and they're very patient. If I was Khamenei, though, I'd accept their decision and walk away now before he makes them any angrier. People can only stand so much.

[Peter]

Despite the fact it might make us feel better in the short term, I'm not convinced that its in the best interest of the reform movement for it to gel too quickly since the other side has all the guns. The fact that the movement is so organic and lacks a single head currently makes it extremely difficult for the Pasdaran to either discredit or surgically uproot. The longer the pot continues to simmer, the more blatantly illegal shenanigans the government will attempt to pull to maintain its power. The more blatantly illegal shenanigans the government pulls, the bigger the wedge that will be driven between the government and the people, the more the marja taqlids will be alienated by the decidedly unjust measures the government utilizes to maintain power, and the more dissatisfied those conservatives in power who still have principles will become with the Supreme Leader's willingness to turn a blind eye to injustice in order to salvage his own reputation. Eventually critical mass will be reached and significant portions of the principle-ists & the security forces themselves will begin to peel away, but only if things simmer long enough and enough people become angry enough. On the other hand if things peak too quickly the opposition won't have enough support and the government, instead of continuing to flail about wildly as it's currently doing, will have something concrete to decisively target, discredit, and crush.

Unfortunately it's hard to tell how close we are to that defining moment until it actually happens. But I don't think it's necessary for the opposition to have specific goals at this point beyond being able to hold on in the face of a government that unashamedly breaks the law continually to silence those who disagree. What they do need is a critical mass of people who passionately oppose this government. And they need that critical mass to include a significant number of people in the security apparatus. Thankfully, the Ahmadi government is both corrupt enough and inept enough that it's helping to create that critical mass by alienating virtually every segment of society, including the very pillars of the Revolution from which the government derives its legitimacy.

Friday will be a significant test for the opposition to demonstrate its ability to mobilize and show that it has not been cowed. If it can survive that test then the government will be in a real pickle. If the government does nothing then it will be toppled. If it cracks down harshly it will only create more martyrs, and thus stoke anti-government hatred to greater and greater heights.

[Afshin]

“What do you think the Green Movement consider to be their achievable aims on Friday and, more generally, beyond that? What would be their ideal result?

Everyone has talked about the letimacy of the President but have forgotten that tommorow may infact be a legitamacy of the Reformists. A big turn up will say a few very important things;

1) Re-stating the legitamicy of the Reformists
2) Confirmation that this battle is long not over
3) First major defeat/loss for the guards

To understand things better I had in the past done an analyses of the Battles being fought on diffrent levels, a second analyses looked at the position of Hashemi and his Arsenal of weapons. Yesterday I did the same for the S.L. I have left the Guards analyses for after tommorow and the coming days will tell us a lot about that. To give you a teaser allready looking at the Arsenal of the Guards the first thing that comes into mind is;

1) FEAR
First and foremost this has been the Guards choice of Weponary and they have infact used it so very succesfully. Fear is indeed a highly effective weapon it almost always delivers. The problem with this weapon is that once the subject passes the fear line the weapon becomes USELESS.

In the last few days we have seen this weapon fail somewhat (scare tactics have not made the opposition quite or made to backdown) Tommorow when the Basij and Guards again attack the crowds and again try to knock down the protests they may encounter a large group, this time maybe more angry, more hatefull, more frustrated which could lead to people stepping over their fear. this could lead to the hunter becoming the hunter.

Lets not in anyway underestimate the importance of tommorow for the Green's. It is a major day for them. Their futur and legitimacy may lie in the outcome of this day.

[Tony in London]

Samuel

There's actually quite a few unhappy basijis out there including the one highlighted by homylafayette in her blog

http://homylafayette.blogspot.com/2009/09/slap-heard-around-cyberworld-fact-and.html

His might be a peculiar case but I've read enough elsewhere not tobuy the united Basij line at all.

In addition, a simply question. If the hardliners have the guns, why on earth haven't they used them before now to end this nonsense? They've made enough hue and cry about it, yet when push comes to shove, for some reason they have shied away.

And why do the reformists and marjas sound more emboldened by the day in slagging off Khamenei himself? Seems to me they think this can only end one way.

[Thomas]

Off the wall wild card/joker. Alot of medical professionals were assailed in the previous bouts. So the Islamic republic's Senate (Assembly of Experts) meets next week and surprise they recieved a copy of the SL's health record. What is their consitutional responsibilty? Are they brave enough to fulfill it? Did not Rafi postpone the meeting until next week, which would be when a coup leader is out of town?

[Bendix]

I'm with Peter. I believe that by continuing to exist, the reform movement will eventually wreck the regime: That's because the Supreme Leader and Ahmadinejad aren't static, they are trying to create a military dictatorship. So far, they are doing a terrible job.

By the standard of a military dictatorship, the regime seems very weak. Why can't they arrest Karroubi, Mousavi, and Rafsanjani? Something is holding them back — and since, in a military dictatorship all that really matters is force, what could that something be but the armed forces? The regime doesn't care about regular voters, they can boss around the Parliament, and the clerics of Qom are already criticizing the regime in the strongest terms I can think of.

There's no real proof that the army is wavering — but the continued freedom of reform leaders is powerful circumstantial evidence.

And even if the army wasn't already wavering, the weakness of the regime is probably enough to get the wavering started. If Ahmadinehad and the Supreme Leader are so easily humiliated, why not support the opposition instead? Or to take this in a darker direction, an Iranian general might also ask why, since the President and the Supreme Leader seem so weak and confused, not seize power for himself and remind the country what a strong dictatorship looks like? It probably wouldn't work, the coup would end in chaos and civil war, but would that stop a general from trying?

[Afshin]

@ Bendix

In Iran you have the IRGC and the Army, The Guards have abount 125.000 soldiers plus alot of Militia loyal to them. The real power is with them and not the army. If they pose a real threat again after Qods day, there is no gurantee they will not be arrested still.

Untill now it would not have been to their best interests. Perhaps the arrest did not happen because;

1) They were posing no real threat
2) Their ally is not behind the idea (S.L), as that would not be to his best interest

They were winning the war on almost all grounds, why anger the public and unite them even more. Why alianate your Allies at this point even more.

Please note that this is not a 2way war, there are more parties involved with each their own agenda's. It is for example in the S.L best interest that the Guards not win this war completly, he needs to have some sort of a balans of power or his own role will be in danger.

Iran is indeed headed for a military dictatorship, but this is not a sudden coup but one that has started years ago and is just now rushing for the finishline. They are getting there bit by bit.

Still I am hopefull that the will not make the finishline and that the people will stop this from happening.