Iran: Rafsanjani Seizes the Initiative

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I got it wrong. Writing on a train to Edinburgh and relying on a shaky translation, I updated yesterday that Hashemi Rafsanjani's address at the Assembly of Experts had been clever but cautious. With an emphasis on unity, an alignment with the Supreme Leader, and a call for resolution within the system, he had not made a direct challenge to the Government.

Wrong.

Fortunately EA's Mr Johnson, with a thorough and incisive translation of the speech, corrected my reading in a later update and identified Rafsanjani's very direct message to President Ahmadinejad and his allies. Put not so cleverly and carefully, it is this. Mr President, it is time for you to compromise, especially with the senior clerics, in a process overseen by the Supreme Leader. Doing so, you will acknowledge where the final authority lies in the Islamic Republic: with Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, backed by his clerical experts, and not with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Doing so, you will acknowledge that your direction and your officials are responsible for post-election abuses which must be punished and redressed.

Several important caveats to this message should be noted. This does not mean that Hashemi Rafsanjani is in step with the Green movement. At no point yesterday, as far as I know, did he acknowledge their presence. The Qods Day demonstrations had been of the Iranian people showing their determined defense of the cause of Palestine. Mehdi Karroubi's letter was never cited as the source of Rafsanjani's knowledge of abuses. Only the Supreme Leader and the marjas (the most senior of clerics) were identified --- Khamenei explicitly, the marjas implicitly --- as the defenders of justice. And Rafsanjani always balanced his charges of crimes and abuses with the general invocation that they had been committed by all sides in the conflict, not just by the security forces and Government officials. Rafsanjani does not walk in step with the Green movement but their paths converge when it comes to the desire to curb Ahmadinejad.



And that leads to the second caveat: although Rafsanjani never said so, the opposition opened up the space and thus made it possible for him to make his challenge. In particular, Rafsanjani needs the demonstration on Qods Day that many Iranian people were not only still angry with the President, still insistent on changes in the system, but also ready to take to the streets to give political substance to their feelings. In retrospect, that seems to be the reason why the former President laid low on Friday, watching, wating, and calculating, and then made his appearance (which, inevitably, would be in the vicinity of President Ahmadinejad but, now it is clear, not alongside him) at the Supreme Leader's end-of-Ramadan speech. Rafsanjani had some security in the criticism of the Government by senior clerics, many of whom were in the Assembly yesterday, but even those individuals might be picked off by the Ahmadinejad forces with their relatives arrested and their reputations slandered. After Friday, however, he had the security of knowing that, if the Government persisted, so would mass opposition by the Green movement. Resistance would not be broken. And he had also had the security of the Supreme Leader's Sunday address. For Khamenei had said to the President and the Revolutionary Guard, in his directive that in-court confessions could not be used against any third party, that Rafsanjani's family were immune from the charges in the Tehran trials.

A third caveat is essential, however. Rafsanjani did not call and will not call, even in code, for the dismissal of Ahmadinejad. That moment, if it ever existed, passed long ago with the affirmation of the Supreme Leader that the 12 June election result would stand.

No, Ahmadinejad can still be top political dog. But Rafsanjani is asking that he be put in the doghouse and on a firm leash.

This leads to an irony which is not an irony. The still-loose President was on his way to New York when Rafsanjani made his speech challenging that President's authority. A far from ironic moment, however, because Rafsanjani had undoubtedly made another calculation. It is not just that Ahmadinejad is out of the country but that his rhetoric will be directed at external issues such as the nuclear programme and Irna's leadership in causes such as the campaign such as Zionism.

Those issues are secondary --- although almost all in the "Western" media will have no comprehension of this --- to the internal matters put forward by Rafsanjani yesterday. So, once more as with the 17 July Friday Prayer address, he has the initiative.

Here is the question. Will the Supreme Leader, who opened up the door to Rafsanjani's political re-entry, now accompany him in that initiative?

Comments

[Bruineyes]

Thanks for this analysis, but is it possible to see the translation of Rafsnajani's speech to English as well?

[Anna]

Thanks for the analysis but I have to ask why is there not 1 quote in this article? I would like to see the translation of the speech too..

[Afshin]

I second that.

[Mike Dunn]

Hi everyone, I don't have Scott's translation but I think this is the original article (in Persian):
http://www.ilna.ir/newsText.aspx?ID=78504

[ChrisE]

Scott was using the Google translate tool- it is testament to his detective skills that he as able to get any kind of analysis from the version I read!

[Janette]

I'm not sure this article is correct. My (Iranian) partner read his speech to me earlier and after reading your analysis I had to go check the story again using google translate (I can speak farsi well but not read farsi)as I couldn't believe you were writing about the same speech my partner read to me earlier. Rafsanjani refered to Leadership but not the Supreme Leader himself. It was an (intentional) snub to the SL. However he did refer the the Marjas throughout the speech. I am at work (and really should be getting back to it)I really wish to explain more to you, maybe if I have time later on but for now I really think you need to revisit his speech because you have lost most of its meaning, this shows in the last line of your analysis 'Will the Supreme Leader, who opened up the door to Rafsanjani’s political re-entry, now accompany him in that initiative?' Rafsanjani said that "The ones who really care for regime & Iran (once agian excluding Khamenei and Ahamdinejad) are writing a declaration that will show the way out this crisis as we speak.” He is doing it with or without Khamanei - he is saying KH and AH do not really care for regime & Iran. You need a real translation you have missed ALL the main points of the speech! such as the declaration to show the way out of the crisis, that 'we must & will confront media slander & those responsible 4 illegal confessions. Won’t allow media to report lies & break laws. Gov & officials should respect & engage protesters within laws instead of persecution. We must reestablish peace of mind & freedom of thoughts & expression. Honesty, fairness/openness & friendship are needed for unity. Lies, deceptions, false accusation have no place. The defense & rights of citizens are essential & have to be guaranteed & respected. “
not to mention what he said about economy and Foreign relations (only ask what we are entitled to)

[Anna]

I agree with Janette. He did say that these things "will not be tolerated anymore" It sounded more like he, together with the support of senior clerics, the elite and founders of the revolution, are seizing control of the situation. They are trying to pull the supreme leader, parliament and guards in line and "supervise them"

[William]

So where is this "thorough and incisive" translation by EA's Mr. Johnson? (I'd prefer "complete and accurate" -- and leave the "incisive" to a separate dispassionate analysis. Scott, I think you're also still misreading what Rafi may be capable of here vis-a-vis the President..... think back to 1981.

[Yseut]

@Anna, Chris, Janette

The yesterday's page in the 'Responses'/forum of this blog provides lots
analysis about Rafsanjani' speech at Ass. of Experts (before duringand after it
was released. Afshin in particular already gave various precisions, nuances and
lines of thought in regard to its content/form). The rough translation of the speech
was on Mivkerbrugge's blog in the few hours following R.'s intervention (and
seems in any case much more reliable than any google farsi-english translation !)

[whereismyvote]

I would recommend we all not get too wound up on this one item. No matter which version of the speech you read, google translate, the Mivkerburgge translation, or the original Farsi translation (Not yet released in full, but a summarized form released) it leaves far too much open. One fact remains, as a master of double talk Rafsanjani's speech was open and may be interpreted many ways. Compared to his Friday prey sermon in July, this speech was open. He did lay down some actions and some threats etc. however to expect an exact analysis is not possible, cause the intent of the speech was to leave the door open to different interpretations. Those Marja who were looking for protection from persecution by Pasdaran will quote what they want, while the supporters of AN will quote his linking the speech to SL and his authority. Us change wanters, will quote his call for action and a plan to solve all issues, while others whatever they wish... I expect this to be the first of a multiple of moves by the AoE before we see whats going on. Rafsanjani has asked and demanded compromise, however Pasdaran will have to deliver the answer, and if they said no compromise, what remains is what will Rafsanjani do to them? He can hurt the supreme leader, but so far he can not hurt the Pasdaran directly and the Assembly does not have the mandate to do anything other than assess the performance of the leader. Its now back to the AN / Pasdaran for a response. we have to wait and see. If the trials continue full speed and they continue to attack, then Rafsanjani was turned down (with all the supporting Marjah and AoE members) and its a long winter war.

[kevina]

I want to second Janette (and Anna) here, Scott. To be fair, this is a translation issue. I've seen two (or interpretations thereof) translations. In one, Raf refers to the "leadership," w/o saying "Supreme Leader." In the other, he explicitly refers to Khamenei (Supreme Leader). If it's the former, then it is one of many shots at Khamenei.

Regardless, the "declaration" passage, in either translation is vital (see Afshin's thoughts yesterday). He calls it, I think, a crisis ("Take that Mr. 'No crisis' Leader") and in describing this declaration process, gave NO indication that Khamenei is involved actively in this. Raf is attempting to essentially usurp power away from Khamenei ("I'll solve this, Mr. Leader"). And he's (selectively) using the SL's own words to justify it.

And don't overlook the part on the Marjas. If push comes to shove (down the road), I read it as a veiled warning to Khamenei: "Don't make me choose between you/the system or the Marjas."

I also second whereismyvote.

[William]

What really irritating me here is EA referencing a translation that supposedly someone here did -- but then doesn't post it. I can't even find any links to yesterday's commentary. Maybe it's in there... but I'm not finding it! Anybody else here have it? Alas, EA doesn't permit posting of links in comments. Ya might want to change that policy.

[Amy]

William
Here's yesterday's commentary
http://enduringamerica.com/2009/09/22/the-latest-from-iran-22-september-a-trip-to-new-york/" rel="nofollow">The Latest from Iran (22 September): A Trip to New York

You can paste a web address into a comment. In a minute, I'll do a comment showing the code you can use to embed the link like above, if desired

[Amy]

Here's the code for embedding a link into a comment. Since the code will not appear "as is", take the following exactly as shown and replace the 2 left parentheses ( with the "less than" symbol <. Replace the 2 right parentheses ) with the "greater than" symbol >

(a href="HPPT")TITLE(/a)

Replace HTTP with the web address and replace TITLE with the name of the article (or whatever)

voila :)

If you fix the parentheses, you can keep the little template handy in Notepad & paste it into comments when needed. Just replace the HTTP & TITLE and it's good to go

[Transcript: Obama’s address to]

[...] « Iran: Rafsanjani Seizes the Initiative The Latest from Iran (23 September): New York Sideshow, Tehran Main Event » Sep 23 2009 [...]

[Afshin]

@whereismyvote

The Response came today by the head of the Guards, and it is a rather intresting one.

[Amy]

Here are some protest videos I tried to post in the main thread, but the comment kept disappearing (???)

Protest Videos:

http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/09/23/video-of-protests-outside-the-united-nations/" rel="nofollow">Iranians Protest Outside the United Nations

http://qik.com/thelede" rel="nofollow">More video here

I wonder how this one turned out;

8:31 p.m. A witness outside the New York restaurant where Mr. Ahmadinejad is said to be dining this evening reports that a number of protesters got wind of the location and showed up there to jeer the Iranian president and his guests from the street outside.

[Bruineyes]

@ Afshin
Yes indeed, a direct warnning to Khamenie that if we go down we are going to take you down with us!

http://www.salaamnews.com/ShowNews.php?8496