Friday
Sep252009
Iran: Obama's "Get-Tough" Move for Engagement
Friday, September 25, 2009 at 15:51
The Latest from Iran (25 September): The Nuclear Distraction
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Chris Emery reads behind and beyond the media fury and President Obama's statement on the Iran nuclear programme:
What must be emphasised is that the entire Obama policy in Iran, including the New Years message and the broad engagement strategy, was conceived with the full knowledge that the US could always bring out the "secret nuclear plant". This was the ace in the hole, which Obama always had, if he needed to inject a sense of urgency into the process of engagement.
Today's statement was not necessarily to set up an inevitable process of sanctions. Indeed, despite the strength of the President's words, there remains very little consensus on what sanctions should be adopted and almost no belief that they will be effective. Instead, this high-profile initiative by Obama was designed to get movement on engagement.
The aim is thus to counter Iran's delaying tactics by massively increasing the stakes for cooperation. The Iranians, if they have any ambitions for engagement --- and I believe they probably do --- will have to offer something extremely substantial in October. That may not be a disastrous outcome. The regime is probably not ready to make a grand bargain encompassing all the areas of mutual interest. However, they are in a position to offer a lot more transparency on the nuclear issue in return for economic carrots.
The fact that Obama has been sitting on this revelation for so long also indicates the risks that he was prepared to endure for engagement. Even now, it was left to French President Nicolas Sarkozy to talk of sanctions; Obama consistently emphasised that all offers to Tehran stand.
It will certainly shock opponents of engagement that Obama was prepared to offer so much knowing that the Iranians were building this facility. They will also now assume that all of the current US Government assessments regarding how long it will take for Iran to get the bomb, including the 2007 National Intelligence Estimate, are incorrect. The immediate pressure, however, is on the International Atomic Energy Agency, especially as judgement has already been passed that the configuration of this site, and the nature of its concealment, are not consistent with a peaceful program.
If the Iranians continue to stonewall the nuclear issue then I do envisage sanctions by the United Nations Security Council around Christmas. I suspect that the Russians are now on board with that. This was probably part of the missile defence deal. That leaves the Chinese, who I doubt will apply the veto alone to block sanctions.
Yet, the point is that the engagement strategy remains in tact.
Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis
Chris Emery reads behind and beyond the media fury and President Obama's statement on the Iran nuclear programme:What must be emphasised is that the entire Obama policy in Iran, including the New Years message and the broad engagement strategy, was conceived with the full knowledge that the US could always bring out the "secret nuclear plant". This was the ace in the hole, which Obama always had, if he needed to inject a sense of urgency into the process of engagement.
Today's statement was not necessarily to set up an inevitable process of sanctions. Indeed, despite the strength of the President's words, there remains very little consensus on what sanctions should be adopted and almost no belief that they will be effective. Instead, this high-profile initiative by Obama was designed to get movement on engagement.
The aim is thus to counter Iran's delaying tactics by massively increasing the stakes for cooperation. The Iranians, if they have any ambitions for engagement --- and I believe they probably do --- will have to offer something extremely substantial in October. That may not be a disastrous outcome. The regime is probably not ready to make a grand bargain encompassing all the areas of mutual interest. However, they are in a position to offer a lot more transparency on the nuclear issue in return for economic carrots.
The fact that Obama has been sitting on this revelation for so long also indicates the risks that he was prepared to endure for engagement. Even now, it was left to French President Nicolas Sarkozy to talk of sanctions; Obama consistently emphasised that all offers to Tehran stand.
It will certainly shock opponents of engagement that Obama was prepared to offer so much knowing that the Iranians were building this facility. They will also now assume that all of the current US Government assessments regarding how long it will take for Iran to get the bomb, including the 2007 National Intelligence Estimate, are incorrect. The immediate pressure, however, is on the International Atomic Energy Agency, especially as judgement has already been passed that the configuration of this site, and the nature of its concealment, are not consistent with a peaceful program.
If the Iranians continue to stonewall the nuclear issue then I do envisage sanctions by the United Nations Security Council around Christmas. I suspect that the Russians are now on board with that. This was probably part of the missile defence deal. That leaves the Chinese, who I doubt will apply the veto alone to block sanctions.
Yet, the point is that the engagement strategy remains in tact.
Reader Comments (3)
Excellent analysis, Chris
Here's the http://c-span.org/Watch/Media/2009/09/25/HP/R/23574/Pres+Obama+Reveals+covert+Iranian+Nuclear+facility.aspx" rel="nofollow">C-SPAN video of the briefing by President Obama, Prime Minister Brown and President Sarkozy
I agree that this getting tough is part of the strengthening of the US hand prior to the start of the engagement. First the scrapping of the nuclear missiles with Russia and Russian softening towards sanctions, second release of the report on the not so secret (secret) site, and then additional allied support, and wait for some softening even on China. All this with light of the secrete letter to AN offering planes in return for the frozen assets.
It seems Obama is very smart, and has done all to make the most of his weak hand prior to engagement. Still US is slightly weaker than in 2003, but much stronger than 2008.
Also great analysis to see that AN and SL must deliver some tangible immediate results, both internally and externally. If no progress is reported, the SL only problem will not be Obama, but expect to see Rafsanjani clobber the SL for the failure also. Given the internal weakness and the external pressure, its either a quick economical deal in return for additional inspections, or its go it alone hermit kingdom and North Korea path...... The regime is not strong today to stand tough both externally and internally. Obama must be a great poker player. He has pounced on the enemy's weakness with a mediocre hand to get a good win.
I think that sanctions could badly hurt Ahmadinejad.
I know the consensus here has been that sanctions will only help the regime. Sanctions won't hurt the blackmarket business of the Republican Guard and will give the regime a threat from outside that they can blame the country's problems on. I used to agree strongly with these arguments.
But the timing of this has robbed Ahmadinejad of the initiative. Caught with a secret nuclear facility right after his big international trip, canceling his big press conference, he doesn't seem defiant so much as daft. It's becoming obvious that Ahmadinejad is bringing the sanctions onto himself, in a way that makes it hard to claim the West is out to get him. And if months pass and Ahmadinejad keeps very publicly doing everything in his power to make sanctions happen, then I think people will blame Ahmadinejad, not rally around the regime.