Epersianradio.com. The 11:00 PM (Pacific Standard Time) program with Saeed Ghaam Maghami. This program is about two hours. In the second hour he opens the phone lines and callers are from Europe, North America, and Iran. When there is a major event like Quads day, you can listen to the protest live. I tune in every night because I would like to hear the news from Iranians in Iran uncensored and unedited.

I do not think Montazeri‘s call to Army to stay out of politics has to do with Khamenei flat-lining or being on ice already. I think his call is mainly to keep the movement alive.

If Khamenei flat lines, there will be power struggle inside Iran. Unlike Pedestrian, I believe AoE and Velayt feghih will be null and void after Khamenei’s death. I think IRG/ Pasdaran/ Basijii will be fighting it out. It is inconceivable that Khatami and Rafsanjani having served as president do not have supporters or loyalist in IRG and military. I, therefore, believe even if there is a military coup it will not be a quite or bloodless one. The international intelligence communities know that and are watching events diligently. They may feed us the progress or lack thereof on Nuke negotiation but behind the scene they are monitoring the storm. The International community does not want triger for more instability in that region so if there is one brewing because of Khamenei NO MORE they will get in position. I, therefore, will look for movement in Persian Gulf by US Navy, Iran Navy, and other countries who have warships in that area. Other signs, I look for is troop build –up along borders with neighboring countries, especially on the Iran Northern border. I also look for unexpected events in Iran like arrest or unexpected death of some key players. At this time we do not see any evidence of such events so Khamenei is still ticking.

I have no doubt the man is ill and will die soon. I think his death will not be a quite one. I, however, consider his death a blessing for all Iranians. With his death Iranians can write the last chapter in Iran theocracy or shall we say thugcracy. An added blessing is that the thugs will kill each other in a bloody power struggle. Like many, I have family there too but trading your rights for superficial peace and quiet is not a fair trade to me. Freedom is never free and we need to accept that or stop talking about it.

I do agree with you that those of us in the U.S. need to put pressure on our elected officials. I have contacted my Senator who sits on Intelligence committee. I do send her e-mail summarizing opinion or remarks of those who call the mentioned radio station from Iran and comment on U.S. policy toward Iran.

To know how many people share some of the views expressed by Mr. Tabarzandi, we need to hear from a larger pool of Iranians in Iran. It is unfortunate that either due to financial hardship or fear of calls being traced or government eavesdrops; Iranians in Iran do not call as often as Iranians abroad. The other night, for example, one of the people who called from Iran was calling from a public phone on a busy highway in Tehran (you could hear the traffic noise in the background). He said he could use other phones. I wish broadcasters had the means of provide an 800 line.

As for what comes after – I’m going to set aside the possibility of an outright coup. Therefore, by law, the AoE will be responsible for selecting a new leader. The AoE has 86 members, names and biographies available on their site, here:

http: // www. majlese khobregan .ir/ index. php?option= com_content&task= category&sectionid=8&id=41&Itemid=39

(I’ve deliberately made the spaces so it would not show up as a link in their website’s feed)

If you look through the list, you will see that only a handful are reasonable-minded people. The rest are loyal Ahmadinejadists, or are associated with MAD, Ahmadi’s boss.

They will select a new leader, but one far more dependent on the guns – more than KII even.

I don’t see how that is helpful.

It would seem to me that once the SL is really in a life threatening situation the system would do so again. Why would they eventually surprise everyone with news of his death? Why not use his illness to shut everyone up?

OF course, the surprise would have that extra shocking effect.

And I’m not so sure what makes you all so happy. If anything happens to the S.L., this will just mean more confusion and more chaos. Nothing more.

K. is part of the old guard. He still has allegiances with Rafsanjani, and the old crowd, no matter how much he trumps them. If any change is going to be brought about at all, no one says that under a different leader, it will be easier or more likely.

The progression will continue: each new leader will rely less and less on popular support and more and more on military might.

True. Tehran Times (http://www.tehrantimes.com/) has not published an item since Tuesday. The “hard-line” daily Keyhan has not published since Monday.

Scott

Also, wow, that Allahpundit piece is horrible. One, Raf, for many reasons detailed here, was NEVER going to become SOLE SL. Ever. BUT he’ll have a major say as to who WILL be the SL (more than one, perhaps?), so Mesbah-Yazdi is DOA.

That said, his completing the coup theory is troublingly plausible.

When they actually make a remark to a rumour like this it actually usually means there is something…. Its always like that even in sports, Usually a few weeks later it is when the coach gets fired… looool.

Not saying the Khamenei is really dying, collapsed or anything but in general these sorta things (Public Denials) are a reason for concern. So who knows..