Iran’s New 13 Aban: An Eyewitness Account “I Have Never Seen as Much Violence”
Posted by Scott Lucas in Middle East & IranIran’s New 13 Aban: A First-Hand Account from the Streets
Iran: Josh Shahryar on the Significance of 13 Aban
Iran Video: The Tribute to 13 Aban’s Protesters
The Latest from Iran (6 November): The Day After The Day After
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From Persian Umpire (compare with the account offered by EA’s Mr Azadi yesterday):
A strange sentiment crept in me today. A man in his late fifties was beaten by a group of people a meter away from me, and I enjoyed it. While I neither had the urge to join in, nor the time to think about it, the delight I took in seeing this man’s fearful face pushed me to encourage his assailants. I am glad I didn’t. In the mayhem, as he was begging them to stop, and kept yelling “why are you beating me?” I only thought to myself “you must be kidding”. He was a member of the Basij.
I had never seen as much violence perpetrated before me in one day. If another day compares to 13 Aban, it would be the 30th of Khordad, the day after Khamenei gave his gangsters the green light to show no merci to Iranians. 13 Aban was worse, maybe because I stayed on longer, or maybe because it was worse indeed. I had not seen so many security forces concentrated in one area before either. I covered 7-Tir Square, Karim Khan Avenue, Vali-Asr Square and the surrounding area today. Thousands of greens showed, mostly without green signs, and were met with thousands of simians, to whom if one grants the label Homo, their qualifications would not allow them to go any higher than Erectus.
The ape forces had one goal in mind, which was to prevent any crowd from forming. Their strategy: indiscriminate violence. At about 10:30 in the morning, before getting to Vali-Asr Square, we passed by the Beheshti metro station. A group of ten anti-riot IRGC members in camouflage uniforms and wielding batons suddenly rushed the station gate, frightening people who were exiting to flee inside. About seven or eight of the security men ran in while the others shut and held the gates behind them. After that, you could only hear the sounds of screams and thuds. Maybe some greens were among them, maybe not. One was carrying a shopping bag.
Something we have learned in the protests is that when the apes charge, you should avoid running, get on the sidewalk close to shop windows and keep walking, or just stand against the walls. They would normally go past you in pursuit of those who run. Today, the apes would get on the sidewalks on bikes, hold out their batons against the walls and drive on. If they were without bikes, they just ran through and waved their clubs, sticks, or chains. It didn’t matter who or what it hit.
I won’t give a moment-by-moment account of the day. Most of it was an uninterrupted sequence of severe beatings, bruises and blood, from which I remember snapshots. I also remember hearing gunshots on a couple of occasions. Arrests seemed to be indiscriminate as well. We saw Basij members picking on the young randomly, forcing them on their knees, handcuffing and blindfolding them, and then taking them away.
On Vali-Asr Avenue, north of the square, a policeman was shouting insults at an old man for having shown up to the demonstration. A young boy went over to the policeman and handed him a flower, to which his response was to slap the boy and throw him on the sidewalk. The boy picked himself up and left.
In the mayhem, we saw security and Basij forces get beaten up or hit by rocks also. On Karim Khan Avenue close to Vali-Asr Square, an eighteen or nineteen-year-old Basiji, wielding a rubber belt, started chasing a man on the street next to the sidewalk. The man was big and the Basiji was short, chubby, and his beard had barely sprouted. For the first time I saw a technique I’ve read about but difficult to perform, in action. Mid chase, the man suddenly stopped dead, turned around, grabbed the Basiji who was stunned, and slammed him against the side of a car. It took him a few seconds to get up. When he saw a group of people who were now rushing him, he ran, but they got to him and started pummeling him. At this moment, a fifty-something-year-old Basiji with short white hair, the man I mentioned above, appeared from behind a bus and ran toward the scuffle, with the same kind of strap in his hand, attempting to beat and scare the others to get the other Basiji out. Another group of people appeared and charged him. He fell to the ground a meter away from me and started receiving kicks and punches. This is when a group of Basiji apes arrived at the scene, surrounded the two other apes and dragged them away.
Later on, at 7-Tir Square, a Basiji, an older man again, was holding his head and was bleeding profusely. Another was propping him up and helping him cross the square to where their camp was set up.
The demonstration never took the magnitude and concentration of Qods Day. It was never allowed. Everyone was fleeing from the security forces, regrouping in the side streets, or recovering from tear gas and beatings. The largest group of people I saw walking on Karim Khan and chanting anti-government slogans reached two or three hundred people at best. There were pro-government demonstrators who appeared from time to time, with loudspeakers and chanting. The largest of those were a few hundred people. I remember one of their new slogans: “Death to the velvet dictator.” Whatever that means.
Before I go and crash, as I am beat, grimy, and tired, let me tie in 13 Aban with Rafsanjani’s Super Duper Plan. Since its inception and the supposed detente between Rafsanjani and Khamenei, the plan has been viewed by many in Iran as false hope and a ruse by the Supreme Leader to buy time and create diversion at best. 13 Aban was another promise broken, another U-turn, another glimmer of hope faded. We are facing a regime in which reform has no practical representative. Neither the leaders of the green movement, nor Rafsanjani or the Marjas, have managed to get meaningful concessions from the Supreme Leader. What I keep hearing is, “What are they going to say now? More of the same?” 13 Aban has left us no doubt about Khamenei’s desire to utterly crush the opposition. Many in Iran view him as a man who does not negotiate, and the perpetrator of all that has happened since the elections.
Something is abuzz in the air in Tehran tonight. It is angry talk about meeting violence with violence. Patience is running out and I am now hearing about switching to the same language as the opponents. How viable that is, or whether we will go down that road will be determined in the future, but 1979 is before our eyes. Take away hope and it won’t be long before reform will give way to overhaul. So far, some are wondering whether reforms have hit a dead end. “Reconciliation” is a funny word now. Maybe it is just a reaction to a brutal day on the streets, or an existential phase, inevitable after six months of going in circles. But one thing is clear. Early on, the movement’s demand was taking back the votes. Today, it is stomping on the Leader for an “Iranian Republic”. He may succeed in crushing the opposition, but may someone save his soul if he fails.
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I agree with much of the sentiment in this article, especially with the radicalization of the movement (that I fear especially, cause I know it will break into a violent sub group soon). Initially I only marched to ensure the younger family members stay peaceful and that they don’t act in a hot headed fashion. Then I continued to march for it was liberating. I was amazed at the youths ability to stay focused and to stay peaceful however now its indiscriminate violence against people by the security apparatus and its going to soon get indiscriminate reply from the radicalized youth against the government.
Today many non violent folks are turning their back to peaceful protest and are questioning everything, which in turn is extremely dangerous for the regime. The label reform is going to be soon too light and people and the green wave for hope and change will have to accept only a comprehensive complete reform from the grounds up, which increasingly looks like revolution. The suppression will bring revolt.
Khamanei could have gone to his grave, in grace 5 months ago. He would have had a big mausoleum erected in his honor and with time much forgotten about his crimes. Today he is going to the gallows and his fate is grime. The question is whether he will be remembered as Stalin is, a criminal mad man, an insane power hungry megalomaniac, or as Mr. Kim of Korea, as an erratic, crazy murderer totally out of tune with reality.
I fear in 2 months time, people will not just demand him to go, but rather demand him to be tried and his blood to be poured. I fear that we will have turbulence post victory cause the enemy hardened our hearts. I wish we can have a compromise plan that gives the people reforms and allows the goons to exit the scene in peace, for it’s the right thing to do.
Very interesting post. Absent some statement from Mousavi, I think many people are re-thinking the purely civil disobedience route after seeing the mindless brutality of the regime on 13 aban.
While I think that completely non-violent action is a great way to get the entire population involved in overthrowing a dictatorship, it is just one option. Further, the option of non-violence depends on the space that the regime leaves for it. Civil means are usually necessary when one is trying to build support within society.
But the Green movement already had almost complete popular support since the day after the June 12 election, so educating the population that the movement exists is not a necessary goal. Looking at Khamenei’s actions against non-violent protesters through beatings, arrests, and torture/rape/murder after arrest, I have to question the strategy of protesting while leaving Khamenei in charge of the judiciary and security forces as a reasonable stale-mate.
I think that the Green Movement needs to move on at this point at least in solidarity with those who are currently in prison. At the very least I think that student and worker strikes and economic sabotage (oil is the regime’s lifeblood) may be a necessary step at this point. Otherwise the regime will just keep arresting and breaking more and more each day as they close in on Mousavi and Karroubi.
Thanks for the post, while the events on the ground are very dynamic, emotional and personal, I think that the Green Movement would have a better chance of giving birth to a healthy democracy, if it continues with its non-violent path.
The movement’s public figures, particularly Mousavi & Sazegara, have repeatedly asked the crowds to restrain themselves and not resort to violence. They were present during the last the revolution, they have seen the outcome of taking the shortcut. This time, they want a foundation which does not stumble over its own values.
The danger of resorting to violence, as said by Sazegara, is that the movement would get divided into subgroups with varying preference for level of violence. A group might be comfortable with only civil disobedient, another with beating Basijes, and another might be willing to kill, and so on. This subgrouping would result in division in the movement and eventual conquer by the regime! To win, we need the masses, the masses need to see their values represented in the movement.
It would be _very_ difficult to continue down the civil disobedient path, but that is the only way to win against thugs. Thugs want to bring the people down to their own level, because they know how to fight in their own domain. The path to victory with the masses on our side is to strain the governments resources, boycott IRGC owned products, and to do general strikes. These are the actions which will bring down the system, not kicking a misguided adolescent Basiji.
Great post Ali,
I only have 2 disagreements with you. 1. The masses already were on Mousavi’s side on June 12, and millions were coming out into the streets in June. By murdering, raping, and pillaging, the regime made most people scared enough to stop joining protests.
2. Once you have the masses on your side you are right that straining the government’s resources and general strikes are extremely effective, so why have these methods not been tried? A national strike and sabotage of the oil industry would probably bring the regime to a screeching halt without resorting to personal violence, I still can’t figure out why this method wasn’t adopted on June 13.
Great post, thanks. I think this regim is going to try and supress as much as they can and they will continue this path as their only way to crush greens. But it might be too late for them to acheive their goal. They can only prolong their existence a little longer, but they will vanish sooner or later. I think karoubi has more courage and more stamena to lead and regim knows that. He is tough and does not back up at all, I remeber Khomeini was the same. People love this in a leader. Khomeini went to Paris, sat under a tree and forced regim change by setting strike after strike after strike until Shah had no choice other than leaving. Today people hate Khamenie more than Shah and I am sure he has no legitimacy of governing both inside and outside Iran, people simply do not want him period. I suggest that Karoubi should leave Iran goes to Paris, sits under the same tree and lead oposition from there exactly the way Khomeini did. People are ready for a big change, they do not want this regim any more. The era of velayat is over. Karoubi can not say this inside Iran, but he can say it outside. If karoubi and Mousavi both stay in Iran the regime will make harder and harder for them to breath and eventually we may loose the both. Karoubi has Khomeini’s charisma as well I do not want to see him to be cornered by these thugs.
Dear Adam,
Re: 1. First we need to remember that this will take at a minimum 12 to 18 months, I am astounded by the fast progress so far, but we shouldn’t expect a climax anytime soon. We need to remember that Iran has a “working” society and economy. So many people have gone back to work and running after their daily problems. Also this demonstration was on a Wednesday, so the number of people would have been magnitude size bigger if it was on a day off.
Re: 2. There were calls for strikes couple of times, but none were a great success. For example they wanted to shutdown the Grand Bazaar, but the store owners were warned that if they don’t open, their stores would be looted. Also ministries and various government operated departments have Ahmadinejad supporters in high ranking positions, so joining a strike would mean end of employment for individuals!
Factories and manufacturing plants with ties to IRGC have seen strikes but that is because of mismanagement and the fact that salaries were not paid over several months. Union organizers are constantly and violently attacked by government goons, all forms of expressing dissent is society is constantly blocked.
Just keep in mind, the decay has began and there is no going back for the regime. We just have to be patient and pray that no outside interference would galvanize the people behind the regime. (ie an Israeli strike on Iran’s soil would do that!)
PS Saddam’s attack on Iran strengthened the regime and allowed it to implemented many of the religious hard line approaches that we are fighting against today.
My thoughts on everything that has happened in Iran after 12th june is that the regime has opened a door it shoudln’t. Now they’ve given birth to somehting that the can’t surpress or distmantle. They can slow it down but now make it dissapear a bit like gorbatchov did with soviet.
but as we see they reign with terror. the masses are afraid. it was ok when mousavi was out and the crackdowns weren’t in force as 13 aban or as after khamenei’s 19th july speech.
the resistance need straetgy and networking foremost. maybe not killing/hitting basijis…but sabotage..strikes….and civil disobedience. hopefully we can pray for two things
1. no israeli or any other foreign military action
2. a economic downturn in iran…say oilprises or real bad mismanagment.
the second one would lead the middle class out on the streets as they loose jobs or salaries…and they’ve got nothing to loose.
and as time goes by the less remember the 79-revolution and those are the ones most furyiated bout this regime. the ones who revolted last time are the ones trying to hold on to their kids not to go out and spill blod.
but as i see it…the economy is not gonna be better…the younger ones dislikes this regime even more….time is on the greens side. the bets is that now has the true face of this regime come out. its no longer reformist vs hardliners vs pragmatisct vs conservatives….it’s islamic republic vs iranian republic, period. just that is a big step…the same as…critisizing th supreme leader..the mathematician studenten a week ago, riping down hiw posters, stamping on it, bruning an pictures….all these countless uni portests….green day protests…mousavi/khatami/karroubi….IRI-politicians who r tired of being a part of this mockerysystem….its all ravelling so fats now…neither regime or ppl i think are cathcing up yo this. its a new phenomenon in the 30y old thugocracy.
its not about winnig over the 130 000 irgc’s its about making 30% of them afraid of their positions i the next era of iran…then all of it will fall apart.
> its always the most difficult in the beginning
> its the most dark just before sunrise’
> dictators never learn from history
> if they we’re smart they would’t surpress the movement like this, hate brings hate
we will be victorious….my time estimate without any israel military attac or any else would say is 7-9y…when the little brothers or little sisters of these generation grows up already having this as a normal pricture of a regime and not a pretty OK like the ones now have. internet-era is also chaning them.
i knw i write very bad but hpe u had my 5 cents! :)
I hope Green protestors dont turn violent. How can Green ever match the government’s weapons, training, organization and funds? That would play into the gov’ts one and only stregth: brutal force.
.
The MEK with all their organization and dedication were savagely and brutally crushed in the 80s. Green would make a mistake if they follow suit. We would lose large groups of society and our best most dedicated young activists in a bloody war.
.
I agree that these protests will grow in size and scale and eventually evolve into large scale boycot and strikes. The economy is collapsing. Busineses are going under. Many factory workers haven’t been paid in months. And we are seeing bickering and splintering of the hardliners. They operate like Mafia and like Mafia, they will take eachother out.
Greens can just watch them implode and in the meantime, organize in small groups and continue their nonviolent protest on major aniversaries.
The level of violence is very disturbing people are concerned with the plight of female prisoners, just go to the Persian listings of the concerns:
http://balatarin.com/topic/2009/11/5/1003723
There will be reactions to another wave of rapes in prisons. The thugs will, however, do it, and will be told that this is going to rescue the regime and the Leader from demise. How foolish and how barbaric. Did the Fascist atrocities not end, this time around, too, it will end. Plans are for international trials of leaders of the IR for crimes against humanity. This is not a joke.These are our brothers, sisters, fathers, mothers, and sons and daughters. All. Does the Leader and his cronies who lie all the time, e.g. Haddad, Larijani (all 3), etc. take us for fools. Do they think that by inventing an imagined “enemy” we will all submit. Hah. The price of freedom is vigilance.Let us all never stop the vigil till the day of freedom. Till the day prisons will be forced open.Till the day the rapists, the killers, the robbers, and the rest of them are brought to justice. Yes, “we shall overcome” it is the movement of history, its spirit, and its end, the perfection. That day is coming. We are responsible to prevent more rapes and torture and must inform the world.
>plans are for international trials of leaders of the IR for crimes against humanity. This is not a joke.
I like to read that.
But, but, where are the great statements of Moussavi, Karroubi ? Why haven’t they got behind a webcam and made solemn statements condemning the violence ? It’s three days !
oops, I meant ‘in front of a webcam’… :-)
“I hope Green protestors dont turn violent. How can Green ever match the government’s weapons, training, organization and funds? That would play into the gov’ts one and only stregth: brutal force.
.
The MEK with all their organization and dedication were savagely and brutally crushed in the 80s. Green would make a mistake if they follow suit. We would lose large groups of society and our best most dedicated young activists in a bloody war.”
Smart comment. For those very same reasons I do hope that the Greenies follow the path of violence. It will make it so much easier to crush them. The Greenies are being very unintelligent right now. Resorting to violence and appealing to foreigners like Master Obama shows their desperation. How I hope they try to hijack Basij Week.
“Death to the Velvet Dictator”??? The Greenies can’t even come up with smart slogans these days.
You forgot to address
>The economy is collapsing. Busineses are going under. Many factory workers haven’t been paid in months.
Have you got a slick reply to those concerns, I’m just curious, why according to you, they haven’t been paid ? What’s your regime’s (your) answer, please ?
The most laughable attacks against the government are the ones on the economy. It’s silly because folks don’t shout “Death to Khamenei” or “Death to the Velvet Dictator” (My favorite Greenie slogan of all time since, like them, it is so nonsensical) because they differ over economic policy.
The battle over the Revolution has to do with permanent values and only a simpleton would try to reduce it to an argument over this or that economic policy. As Imam Khomeini once put it perfectly: “REVOLUTION is not about the price of watermelons”.
This will come as a shock to many but the economy was in pretty bad shape under the Greenie Khatami and before that under Rafsanjani the thief. If corruption was the true concern of the Greenies they would not be salivating everytime they think Rafsanjani is going to act on their behalf. Rafsanjani is the most corrupt politician of all and yet the Greenies would stumble over themselves trying to kiss his feet.
But I know what you are thinking. Under the Greenies Master Obama would come in and save the Iranian economy. Maybe they could get as much economic aid as the Israelis.
@Adam,
If you are going to keep referring to a “national strike” at the very least acquaint yourself with the writings of Georges Sorel. It will make your arguments more compelling and less simplistic.
@Iranyar
Thanks for trying, it was good and I understood prety well. I agree with you in most of whwt you say, but I do not give this regime as many years as you are giving them. I will give them at most a couple of years. Khamenei has totally destroyed the “Velayat-e Faghieh” concept for ever. Did you beleive 6 months ago that we could be here today? He passed the red line and showed the people the reality of wht is behind “Velyat-e Faghih”. This by itself is a revolution. I have no doubt in my mind that democracy movement will win this battle. History says that all over the world. To make it to happen faster we need to have strong leaders that are smart, brave, well organized and strong. I see these in Karoubi more than Mousavi (I am not trying to put mousavi down). If I were Mousavi on the 40th day of Neda’s death and the basijis were trying to force me out in front of thousands of witnesses, I would resist and Mousavi dis not. Nothing against him. Mousavi should learn to resist both idealogically and phisycally and I am sure he will, that is how leaders become leaders. Khamenei has the power now (he thinks) but you know what he can not govern. He has no legitimacy and he knows that too (everybody knows that now). So no matter what we have already won the battle no matter what.
To peissmist: I really do not understand your question. Would you please elaborate on that? thanks
“I hope Green protestors dont turn violent. How can Green ever match the government’s weapons, training, organization and funds? That would play into the gov’ts one and only stregth: brutal force.”
All Iranians have to do military service (unless you can buy you way out of it). The regime trains us from when we are young. I learnt to use AK-47 in primary school camp to basij training camp. We are much smarter then those animals. Just because we know how to be violent doesn’t make us so. If the people turn violent we will not run up and down the street thoughlessly hitting every security force in site. We can get weapons, money & organising into small cells to take care of a certian “turf” is much easier than trying to control a whole city. The sec forces run away when unarmed people take one of them, imagine if we actually really hurt any of them – I doubt they will stay around to fight back.
However saying this, I am still not sure that it is the right path just yet but eventually I think resistance fighters will be needed to take control of the security forces because they will not walk away without a fight! For now we need to stay calm they are destoying themselves, the time will come for us to get rid of the security forces.
@Kamran
Yes it has really been remarkable progress since the pres.elections but why i say 7-9 years is that it can go faster or slower depending on different factors….and i would rank them as follow
1. military option (israel) very negative
2. oliprice…if it goes down! this friday it was 80$ a barrell! i can tell u, if it was like 20$ for a year my prediction would be much less
3. blunders by the regime, lets say a statement as “khash-o-khashak” by AN, khazirak incident, TM wearing green, draws in PP-SS derby, uni attack.
4. convincing a part of the 15m (my prediction) pro IRI (regime) supporters…radical or moderate…these who some of them will understand that the country isn’t goverened the way the ought to and will ev. reject them.
And as time goes by we will have a younger and less afraid population which is more dedicated to freedom cause they live in such a hypocrite society.
But having Karroubi as a future leader/president for the next era of Iran, that I really doubt.
Even though he seems to be a great man I still doubt due to his IRI-past/connections and age.
But I think as time goes the movements goals and strategy will become clearer and eventually more easier to head for.
> But in a new iran…should MKK and the monarchist be let in? Imagine the vaccum if the green movement isnt strong enuff.
I really tend to go out of line when writing ..but i just wanna write down everything that goes in my mind. I really follow Iran and like geopolitics.
and one last thing…all this is down to the darn oil…every greedy bastard wants it, no matter saudi, iraq, venezuela, russia…i hope for the day when oilprices fall and other subsitutes will take over…then we will flurish as a great prosperous nation. not sitting and depending us on the black venom!
Samuel,
“If you are going to keep referring to a “national strike” at the very least acquaint yourself with the writings of Georges Sorel. It will make your arguments more compelling and less simplistic.”
I am in shock. You have actually said something relevant and added something to the debate instead of just trying to get people angry by saying idiotic things to the effect of “I’m glad the Basij are beating up these silly protesters”.
Thanks for the advice re: Sorel. After doing a little background research though it seems like radical trade unionism was his ideology and an end in and of itself. That is not in like with what I am talking about.
My argument was supposed to be simplistic. It has nothing to do with labor rights or a broader trade union movement. My point was that the second the regime stole the election, bringing millions out into the streets of Tehran, the leadership of any opposition should have realized that the economy of the country could be immediately brought to a complete halt. Nobody does an ounce of work until the regime caves in. And since Khamenei’s regime in particular is dependent almost entirely on oil revenues, disrupting the oil fields/pipelines until it is intolerable.
I believe that would have exposed cracks in the regime much more quickly than marching peacefully and going home, and probably could have avoided many of these killings and other atrocities by the regime.
Adam,
National strike is tricky, after the election was too soon, you need massive public support – yes there were millions marching in those days but not many of those would be willing to give up their jobsbusiness = food, clothing, homes and business without knowing that it would be a sure thing. Don’t forget that the majority after the election were only asking “where is my vote”, this was not enough to lose your way of life over. As outright hatred for the regime takes over the time is near that strike can work, now there is no going back for the SL and IR and everyone knows it, this is what is needed to sustain massive strikes IMHO.
Note we are observing some major cracks in the regime. Many government media, or best named “propaganda machines” are now saying that the 13 Aban demonstration was very small, that the videos are from previous times (so in previous times they were large?!) and are all made up by the “enemy”; even that the shipment of arms sent from IR to Hezbollah is just a made up story to discredit the real 13 Aban events. I fail to see the logic even by the standard of their lies. They are confused and are thrashing about. This “enemy” stuff is no longer news.Freedom is near, nearer than man think. We must continue and be strong. The IR can only lie and only cheat and only torture. And that is a dead end.
I hope you are right. I feel like it would have been easier to organize a National strike when the nation’s capital was overwhelmed by millions of protesters in the main square. I feel like much of the population is probably not on the same page organizationally anymore because of the crackdown. I pray you are right though.
Hossein,
You are right that the regime’s propaganda has gotten more and more outlandish, but that has been the trend for years now. You are right that the Green movement proves almost daily that they are good and the regime is evil, but how does that necessarily lead to regime change if Khamenei’s hold over the security forces and the economy are not challenged? All while brave protesters, journalists, and activists are being tortured in prison?
I agree that the regime is getting itself into danger, but I tend to be skeptical of the prospects for overthrowing a dictator just by protests that the regime can choose to ignore to the extent that they can’t simply kill or arrest the protesters. I disagree with the common belief that the overthrow of communism in 1989 was inevitable. Much of that had to do with decisions at the top that they weren’t willing to kill for this anymore, and Khamenei hasn’t made that decision yet it seems. I personally think that the regime’s total reliance on oil revenues is Khamenei’s achilles heel. Without oil export revenues he can’t pay the security forces and can’t maintain the basic functions of the state. THAT would make it inevitable (I suspect that is why the regime is in such a hurry to stop subsidizing fuel for Iranians).
@Samuel
“Death to the Velvet Dictator??? The Greenies can’t even come up with smart slogans these days.”
“Death to the Velvet Dictator (My favorite Greenie slogan of all time since, like them, it is so nonsensical)”
Idiotic and brainless, isn’t it? :) Just wanted to point out to you it was coming from the “pro-government” demonstrators, not the greens.
Say Ali, you referenced Mousavi and Sazegara as “leaders” of the Green movement. That’s very interesting. Did I miss an announcement somewhere? When did Sazegara become so designated? I remember his leadership of the Referendum Movement — before he became a fellow at WINEP. Anybody know if he still has his gig with Voice of America? And wouldn’t that be a curious (ok, problematic) platform from which to be a leader of the Green Wave?
Last I heard, Khomeini was still dead. ;-}
And about Obama dealing with Ahmadinejad/Khamenehi, oh the ironies here. So what would this curious Bush-like sentiment (yer either with us or agnst us) counsel Obama to do?
If Obama now cuts off negotiations with A/N’s representatives, (as if they somehow don’t represent Iran) what then?
If I read them right, Musavi, the Larijanis & various other figures appear to be criticizing of the IAEA deal on nationalist grounds, that is, that too much “trust” is being put in the untrustworthy west…. (one could be forgiven for a hard-headed political analysis — and suspecting they are also loathe to see A/N get credit for the breakthrough — understandable)
So imagine then. Obama is being asked to give up pressing for a very promising deal via interlocutors at least nominally tied to A/N so that he can hope that others come to the table… who (for domestic political rivalry reasons) may well be even less likely to accept the IAEA deal.
Somebody care to explain how this would be a gain.?
@Roe Lassie
Yeah I agree that it’s really some progress this 6months but the thing is that has surfaced now is that the regime wont succumd, they wont give in a inch. That’s what we know from the IRI by now. We didn’t know that when 2-3 million iranians were out in the capital. We thought that raf/khat/marjas would be backing them up.
some thoughts
> dont u think the regime almost wants to infuriate the world and have israel striking against them?
> obama has 3y more left. what will happen with a republican comes to power?
> what is beingf wanted by the majority of the greens? and what is wanted by karroubi and mousavi? i dont think they want the same future for iran. the latter dont want an secualr republic like most of the greens.
> how should you deal with a regime that doesn’t care and almost doesnt need a majority of its population? they know that they sit on the oil and may give their irgc thugs some nice salary and the oil-workers. they dont care so much bout the rest.
> If khamenei dies I think irgc will put one of their mullahs in place…jannati/yazdi. But I think his death will only rep things up even more…because then it’s an allout new-coup d-etah regime throughout. and that the vaccum that khamenei leaves wont be filled with any prestige such as if montazeri would be it, which i hiiiihgly doubt. Like just imagine the 3rd supreme leader being on every poster, picture, billboard and welcomeplate in every office, street, momument, shop in iran. highly unlikely.
But the positive part is that the regime is soon about to exploit its roughest tactic on the ppl which soon aint gonna leave them to much more options or force than it has done which makes them volnerable. Imagine urself having a bad dream and u hit the bad guy so much and for so long but he still keeps smiling, then u really get afraid and may think of retreating or runaway. Look at the uni’s some dabestans too, common day-2-day life anger, sportsvevents, hijacking IRI holidays, all this wont ever dissapear. and every1 that they beat/arrest/rape has say at least 5-6 close relatives or feinds and 15-20 ppl that they know good….which they all make much more angry by doin this…hate gives birth to hate as they say. But Im really surprised by the tolerance of the greenies to not being violent.
The pinnacle is when the majority of the poeple are like the ones who are out now…they have to feel like they have nothing to lose and never opt for anything else.
btw the idea of having karrubi starting a new tvchannel from dubai or what it was would be a huge blow for IRI if they wouldnt be able to stop it because the iranians feel like this is from one of the insiders doing this and not MKK or monarchist. but i heard he lacks the fund.
“The battle over the Revolution has to do with permanent values and only a simpleton would try to reduce it to an argument over this or that economic policy. As Imam Khomeini once put it perfectly: “REVOLUTION is not about the price of watermelons”.”
The idea of a battle over “permanent values” is a contradiction in terms. By definition, that which is permanent is unchangeable — it endures regardless of conditions.
If the “permanent” value requires outside support, or maintenance through coercion or force, by definition it isn’t permanent. It’s mutable (changing).
Political transformation is almost always proceeded by economic transformation.
The French revolution, for example, may not have been just about the price of bread, but the price of bread was a catalyst for political transformation. In a market economy, economic power is political power. Dramatic changes in the alignment of economic power often result in corresponding changes in the political structure (and visa versa).
In reference to the current situation in Iran, I have no idea how things will ultimately unfold. If people strive for a more representative system, it is hard to see how that can be achieved through a resort to violence. Economic pressure and solidarity are tools that require time and patience, but they are more compatible with the end of a free society.
@Moandor,
You are right regarding the slogan. I misread the original story.
If the velvet dictator slogan was by pro-governtment folks it is still an idiotic slogan.
“The idea of a battle over “permanent values” is a contradiction in terms. By definition, that which is permanent is unchangeable — it endures regardless of conditions.”
No it is not. That is only true if you view the world in a rigid, unthinking way. A Revolution like the Iranian one or the Russian one or the Chinese one contain permanent values. (In Soviet Society it might have been belief in anti-imperialist militancy, collectivization of production and indeed society, solidarity with the international proletariat etc.,). Within a broad set of beliefs policies are changed or MODIFIED according to current conditions.
In order to stay dry one does not walk around with an open umbrella all the time regardless of whether it is raining or not.
Samuel,
In terms of the broad sweep, I guess I’m more cynical about these kind of things. Ultimately revolutions are about power and the way the power is organized and distributed. At the core that’s about the only common, enduring element in revolutions.
In politics there are no “permanent values” — every arrangement is provisional and contingent. Reality is dynamic and things change. A system of political organization which may be well-suited to one moment, might be ill-suited at another time (e.g. centralization can be positive in some circumstances — such as times of crisis; but over an extended period of time it can also stifle innovation and create its own set of crises).
Soviet leaders may have talked about the international proletarian revolution, and perhaps many of the leaders believed it. At the end though Stalin, et al, simply replaced one form of authoritarian rule with another form. In some respects there were differences with respect to increases in say literacy, but in others it was a case of “meet the new boss, same as the old boss”.
@Me
“I learnt to use AK-47…”
I’m very encouraged by all this talk of violent counterrevolution from the pro-Greenies. I would not mind it at all if those Greenies started to clean their AK-47’s right about now. Actually it’s a Kalashnikov with that heavy piston it does not have to be cleaned all that much.
Just be aware that once the Greenies do that the Basij will also bring out an AK or two as the picture below clearly shows. For those interested those are Romanian AK’s in the picture. Iran makes its own AK’s these days–and a fine version it is.
http://english.khamenei.ir//components/com_mhasgallery/img_pictures/originals/20080526_1439601590_17.jpg
JP,
But look at China. Some Revolutionary values have changed, even radically since the time of Mao. Yet China today is one of the two superpowers in the world and it will be THE superpower if the Americans continue these losing wars against Muslims.
China has dramatically changed its economy from Mao’s period but it has not adopted western values either. If not for the Chinese Revolution and everything that followed China would have remained a miserable, pathetic, undeveloped, western exploited non-entity. Think of the Opium Wars.
China certainly was not a case of “meet the new boss, same as the old boss”.
It is said power corrupts. It seems to corrupt the clergy most. Throughout history they have used religion to their advantage, to empower themselves meanwhile suppressing brutally those who dare oppose them. An ancient, cultured people in desperate need of good government. Unfortunately that has rarely been the case throughout Iranian history.
Samuel,
China is an interesting case.
In terms of industrialization, China today is no longer a feudal economy thanks in part to economic liberalization begun under Deng Xiaoping. In respect to the way that economic power is distributed, the current period has some resemblances to the one party rule of the KMT under Chiang in the 1930s and 1940s (e.g. a small coterie is reaping extreme economic benefits — concentrations of wealth are also located heavily in cities along the eastern coast with tension growing in the interior and west). In some respects the revolution has come full circle. History never fully repeats itself, but the current period bears some resemblances to the pre-revolution period in terms of economic structures — a kind of crony capitalism — than it did under Mao.
The economic development in China is also creating political pressures that in time may yield to greater liberalization (e.g. the creation and growth of a middle class tends to result in political demands in time; the only way to reverse those demands is to stifle entrepreneurial innovation, shut the country off from the world again, and in turn reverse economic gains).
China today may still be an authoritarian state, but with economic growth, I would not be surprised to see greater political liberalization. The pursuit of materialism in modern China is something that people in the West understand quite well. These were not values held during Mao’s period — in fact, he would likely frown upon many of the changes that have taken place today.
There are some resemblances between China today and the U.S. during the period of industrialization during the “Gilded Age” (when our own crony capitalists exerted disproportionate control over our political system). This is a stark contrast from China under Mao. Political power in China is still more centralized today than it was in the U.S. during Gilded Age; although, the parallels with that period are greater now than they were under Mao.
Economic structures and political structures are related. If the goal is to create static political structures, it is necessary to do as the Spartans and Mao did (and as the North Koreans do to this day) — and still, in time, the reality of an ever-changing world tends to wear down even the most closed society.
As the cliche goes, the only thing that is constant is change.
Values change in response to internal and external changes.
In theology there may be “permanent values”; in politics, the world is always in flux. Closed political systems can maintain an illusion of static, permanent values, but this illusion is maintained through artificial constraints at a heavy price. Closed political systems are like a form of inbreeding. In time, they are not good for the health of a nation.
JP,
I do not believe for a second that that permanent values of the Iranian Islamic Revolution of the Ayatollah Khomeini means that one has a rigid, static society. As I’ve pointed out before the Revolution has gone through periods of greater and lesser liberalizations. I’m repeating myself but the reformists were in control of the Presidency for eight years and before that there was President Rafansjani, today the idol of reformists.
This is not the Soviet Union of Gorbachev where glasnost and perestroika were totally unprecedented.
Let me give you an example outside Iran but closely related to the Revolution. In my opinion there is no one more loyal to the values, the aspirations, the dreams of the Iranian Revolution in its totality than Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah in Lebanon. Although obviously not an Iranian this man studied in Qom and spent many years in Iran. It has even been said that Nasrallah is like a son to the SL which I find to be completely believable.
Today Hezbollah controls vast areas of Shiite Lebanon, areas where no one even comes closing to forcing women to wear the Hijab. This is but one example that can be cited. I know some will say that Nasrallah is simply waiting for the day he finally takes over all of Lebanon to end the current pragmatism.
The truth is that Hezbollah, the great champions of the Islamic Revolution have been pragmatic, flexible, adaptable to meet the realities around them while remaining loyal to the Khomeini vision.
Speaking of flexibility the Iranian Govt. under Imam Khomeini did not hesitate to deal with the Great Satan at the time of the Iran-Contra controversy because such dealings were for the benefit of the Iranian Revolution.
This notion of the Iranian Revolution being rigid, static, or “frozen in time” is nothing more than a caricature dreamed up by reformist propaganda.
Samuel,
I don’t think that the Iranian Revolution is rigid or static — clearly the Iranian system has some dynamism. It is also true that the revolution has come full circle in many ways.
Iran is more self-reliant in many ways than it was before the revolution. Some good was accomplished in the years before the present time. Ahmadinejad inherited a pretty good foundation. Although, in four years he appears to have squandered much. He is to Iran what George W. Bush was to the U.S.
Nominally the state maintains its Islamic roots; however, in practice its ruling elite today seem to enjoy the fruits of earthly power in a manner that is clearly not disinterested.
In terms of governance, the political elites seem to have been seduced more by secular crony capitalism (they seem more like adherents of Putin or the Shah than adherents of the Imam). Their words and deeds are not in harmony.
Of course they will deny this, but the truth is what it is. A leader does not amass an earthly fortune of hundreds of millions, or billions of dollars while in political power, if that leader puts the interests of the people before his own. This was true in the time of the Shah; this is no less true today. Imam Khomenei enjoyed public confidence in part because he exercised power with an eye towards national interests — he did not use political power simply as a means to enrich himself.
If economic gains were more widely shared; unemployment was low; and inflation was largely in check, I suspect more people would be supportive of the current political arrangement. The cronyism which exists within the current regime and the mismanagement of economic affairs by cronies weakens the overall health of the Iranian state.
To the degree that the economy is well-managed, the regime will enjoy some degree of internal confidence. To the degree that political leaders mismanage the economy, it loses confidence — especially when the political leaders profit when others do not. Political and economic power are inter-related.
In reference to Hezbollah, it co-exists right now within a relatively open society inside Lebanon (albeit tenuously). If Iran enjoyed the same electoral and press freedoms that currently exist in Lebanon, there would be more transparency and greater accountability — the political system would have a means for removing incompetent members of the government; people would have a stake in the political process, because the political process would offer a means for accommodating legitimate grievances (especially as they relate to the conduct of earthly affairs). As it stands now, there is no check against earthly incompetence in the Iranian political system. That is part of the problem. Using violence and coercion do not remedy the underlying problem.
In reference to Hezbollah, it is also too bad that Iranian hardliners have not taken the lessons of the Doha compromise into account. Whether the compromise holds is an open question, but the willingness of the parties in the conflict to seek mediation and avoid another civil war demonstrates the kind of pragmatism that you highlight.
“No it is not. That is only true if you view the world in a rigid, unthinking way. A Revolution like the Iranian one or the Russian one or the Chinese one contain permanent values. (In Soviet Society it might have been belief in anti-imperialist militancy, collectivization of production and indeed society, solidarity with the international proletariat etc.,).”
Samuel, did it ever occur to you that countries will, almost inevitably, outlive some of the values of Revolutions? Like, oh the Bolshevik Revolution?
Your countrymen seem to be saying that many of the ideals of ‘79 no longer apply. I would agree.
JP,
I don’t disagree with you that the Govt. must pursue more effective economic policies. And please there is plenty of debate about that in parliament and other venues. Look at how many of AN’s nominees for the Cabinet have been rejected over the years.
Of course unlike other countries in the Region Iran does not receive 5+ Billion dollars every year from a superpower. We should also note that Khatami and Rafsanjani have zero credibility when it comes to the issue of corruption.
I have said that while AN is not personally corrupt he does depend too much on yes men and has opposed some very capable individuals, Naqdi the current head of the Basij for one, simply because they haven’t fallen into that category.
I don’t agree that western style democracy necessarily leads to better economic policy. Lee Kuan Yew, the famous former leader and founding father of Singapore (one of Asia’s economic miracles) has spoken on this issue much more eloquently than I ever could.
@simple mind
Re:”Say Ali, you referenced Mousavi and Sazegara as “leaders” of the Green movement. That’s very interesting. Did I miss an announcement somewhere? When did Sazegara become so designated?”
This is a dynamic grassroots movement, in my opinion, leaders of such a movement are not designated and/or assigned. Everyone will do what they can, people will leadership and management skills will do what they do best, as well. Now if they do it well enough, and consistently enough, then they’ll become leaders. Also the movement is not tied to a particular person, and this is what makes it strong, because not single point of attack for enemies.
Sazegara has been doing 10 minute youtube broadcasts everyday since this all began. I have listened to a few, and they are good. He gives instructions for civil disobedience, gives tips on staying safe, and how to organize groups of Greens in schools or places of work. He provides consistent messaging such as the need for staying non-violent, and tips about other movement and counter-movement tactics. I haven’t confirmed this, but his broadcasts are disseminated in Iran through various medias.
Google Trend will show you this effect: http://www.google.com/trends?q=sazegara and most of the queries are from inside Iran.
Also if he wasn’t such a torn in the coup government’s eye, they wouldn’t have broadcasts this video on state TV: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X4yS5_cJXjc
“I remember his leadership of the Referendum Movement — before he became a fellow at WINEP. Anybody know if he still has his gig with Voice of America? And wouldn’t that be a curious (ok, problematic) platform from which to be a leader of the Green Wave?”
I see your point, but in my opinion this movement’s leader is not its decision maker, at least not yet! The people make the decisions, and leaders provide general advice and guidelines. People cheer and follow their champions, and as soon as they sense mistrust, they would shift direction. Just look at how Rafsanjani was cautiously cheered during his Friday sermons and then when people saw that he is not aligned with them, he was put away. So if Sazegara steps out of line, he would be put away as well.
Again in my opinion, you can look at Sazegara as the leader of the troops and a catalyst for the movement. Giving it a hand to achieve its goal, but not setting its goals.
Samuel,
Rafsanjani is clearly personally corrupt. His personal fortune stands as a testament to that reality. Ahmadinejad is still a relative newcomer, but give him time. The IRGC component is additionally problematic (e.g. the IRGC side makes the system look more Russian-mafia style “Kleptocracy” than a technocratic, authoritarian regime like China). Iran has tremendous innate potential based on its human capital, its geographical location, and its natural resources — but its political structure tends to squander many of these strengths.
As far as subsidies go; the U.S. may not provide a direct subsidy to Iran, but the indirect subsidy that it provided via oil consumption from 2005-2008 was much more than $5 billion a year. Neither Rafsanjani nor Khatami oversaw the economy at a time like 2005-2008 when oil revenue was through the sky.
In terms of economic policy and public corruption, there’s not much question that western democracies outperform more closed political systems over the long-term.
Democracies are built on the premise that there is no perfect political system, because men are not angels by nature.
There is also an understanding that two heads are smarter than one. As Abraham Lincoln once said: “You can fool some of the people all of the time; and you can fool all of the people some of the time; but you can’t fool all of the people all of the time. It is even harder to do this when you have to fool a lot of people.”
The advantage that a China, or Singapore has is that it can pivot much more quickly and enact “best economic practices” without needing to explain or justify their decisions to an electorate that’s made up of non-specialists.
The centralization of decision making though is a mixed blessing — especially when the decision makers are insulated from the consequences of their decisions. The virtues may be amplified, but so are the vices. A democratic system tends to spread risk and benefits of risk much more widely. It’s unwieldiness and seeming chaos is part of its virtue.