Even today the forces of the Revolution are much more highly mobilized and organized than in the recent past. The later Rafsanjani administration and the Khatami administration left the Basij a dry, empty, useless shell which has now been revived by leaders like Jafari, Taeb and Naqdi. Compare Basij week in 2000 with Basij week in 2008.

No the militant “reformist” youth of today will not go along any more than the militant youth of the MoK went along with Khomeini. They must decide whether they will work out their destinies in the West or whether they will pursue armed conflict.

I would not be so quick to call clerics cowards (whatever else you may think of them) since many risked their lives over and over during the war. The SL, then President was a constant presence at the front with the troops. Others, like Rafsanjani, clearly spent many of the war years living the life of luxury and safety.

We saw the “huge revolutionary domestic component” during AN’s visit to Tabriz. A second cultural revolution is certainly intended, but useless. You can not copy 30 year old patterns, especially not in such a predominantly young society, which is fed up with empty slogans. The only means to mobilize the population is cash, but even that did not work in Tabriz…
As to Taeb: Iran’s clerics are rotten (with few exceptions), but also cowards and prefer to sit in their warm maktab to tell their fairy tales. Taeb is a new type of this regime’s overall weapon: military man, cleric, torturer and dealer.

Taeb is a cleric, a former student of the SL, AND he has been with the guards since he was 20 years old. Is he a cleric, or is he a military man? He happens to be both.

On another note the current military excercises in Iran have to be understood as part of the new efforts to mobilize the population as part of the cultural revolution. To be sure there are military issues with regards to air defences etc., that have to be worked out but there is a huge revolutionary domestic component as well at work.

http://www.facebook.com/video/video.php?v=1272906791055

I see your point but the alternative of a military command linked to the “right” clerics is no less, in my opinion, than a coup. That would shred whatever regime legitimacy — consent rather than coercion — remains after 12 June.

S.

There were conflicting reports throughout the day, which is why I held off posting until this AM (and then citing Mowj-e-Sabz). Gist, I think, is that Abtahi can appeal the sentence but still unclear if he can be free while awaiting the outcome.

S.

Peyke Iran reports that Abtahi will be freed after making bond (I am not sure if it is $7000 or $7M).

If I am reading this correctly Revolutionary court has said the 6-year sentence can be appealed. http://www.peykeiran.com/Content.aspx?ID=9701

I wonder if that’s irrelevant at this stage. Why does the president – a single political figure who can be replaced – need to have a secure position when the following is occurring within the power structures of the governing system he is but a part of?

On the one hand: The IRGC’s structure is being reformed and its commanders changed and reshuffled, now with 29 provincial IRGC units, one for each province, plus two additional special units for the city and province of Tehran. The Basij is being merged into into the ground force of the IRGC, and the Basij will begin opening chapters in the lower grades of the educational system. IRGC commander Jafari claimed in a speech last winter that the IRGC’s structural reforms were undertaken to combat “soft warfare” and “domestic threats.” Two weeks ago deputy of the supreme command of the IRGC Masoud Jazaeri announced the creation of two “central” and “supreme” commands to combat “psychological operations of the enemy.” There are reports that the government plans to launch some 100 media outlets to confront the green movement and will be looking at new legislation to tighten controls on the use of the Internet.

On the other hand: There are plans afoot to appoint new Grand Ayatollahs favourable to the current regime. Some members of the Qom Seminary Teachers Association are planning to present a new list of “grand ayatollahs” under the supervision of Mohammad Yazdi, Ahmad Jannati and Mesbah Yazdi. The list will include the names of grand ayatollahs who have been approved by the Islamic government.

(PS I’ve borrowed from news reports and a post by Samuel to put together this information)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m5eibh1-bb4&NR=1