Monday
Nov302009
Iran: How Washington Views the Green Opposition --- The Next Chapter
Monday, November 30, 2009 at 9:24 
Carefully tracking US policy towards Iran, we've noticed since October that many inside and outside the Obama Administration have either stigmatised or dismissed opposition movements. This reduction has both stemmed from and reinforced the Administration's quest for "engagement" and a nuclear deal.The latest chapter in this belittling of the opposition comes from Mahiar Bahari, the Iranian-Canadian journalist who has been writing and speaking about his post-election detention. We noted last week his curious, rather muddled attitude in a Washington Post opinion piece towards protest and the Iranian people. Now this comes out of the second part of his CNN interview, filmed almost two weeks ago but aired yesterday:
Latest Iran Video: The Bahari Interview on CNN (Part 2)
Iran MediaWatch: Has “Green Reform” Disappeared in Washington?
Iran Video: Maziar Bahari Tells CBS of His Detention and Post-Election Conflict
Iran Video & Text: Maziar Bahari on His 118 Days in Detention
Unfortunately...we cannot really talk about an opposition movement in Iran because the Green Movement in Iran is just a collection of different groups coming together against the Government. Some of them are monarchists, some of them are Communists, some of them are terrorists.
The majority of course wanted a peaceful reform in the Government, but since the Government crackdown which started in June, people just started questioning themselves, "What should be the next step?" At the moment, the slogans are political and cultural, but soon these slogans will be economic. Factory workers [who] were not paid will...join the opposition movement. Farmers who cannot sell their crop will join the opposition movement and then we will see a serious change in Iran....
Soon there will be a more united opposition movement. The danger really is both the opposition and the Government is becoming more militarised. The terrorists both within the regime and the opposition are taking over. As we saw in Baluchistan, there was a suicide attack....I'm sure we'll see more of it....
I think Obama is on the right track right now. I think the world community has to stop a nuclear Iran by any means possible, but most importantly through smart sanctions. But the Obama Administration also has to respect the Iranian people, I think, through smart sanctions and through keeping the dialogue open with the Iranian Government but at the same time talking about human rights abuses in Iran, helping the human rights organisations in Iran, talking about freedom of expression, helping the alternative media.
So, to break this down 1) the US Government cannot really put any faith in the current Iranian opposition; 2) at some point in the (distant?) future Washington can look upon a "more united" movement; 3) in the meantime, the fear of disorder outweighs the hope for change; 4) which, put on top of a nuclear-first policy, means a priority on dialogue with the Ahmadinejad Government while maintaining some supportive general rhetoric about the "Iranian people".
Engagement with the internal situation in Iran, as opposed to engagement with the Iranian Government, will consist of some steps to target elements in the regime through sanctions and to assist dissenting groups with communications.
I suspect readers will raise eyebrows and possibly voices over some of Bahari's analysis. In particular, he not only portrays "terrorism" in the opposition movement but somehow connects post-election protest to the activities of the Baluch insurgent group Jundallah and suicide bombings. His contrasting hope seems to be that a mass repository of factory workers and farmers will save the movement from itself, offering the cohesion that is now lacking.
That's not the immediate point, however. Bahari is very well-connected and well-respected in Washington and that significance has been elevated by his recent detention. So I would think that his line of reasoning will resonate with, and possibly be shared by, key members of the Obama Administration.
The problem for the US Government is that, combined with the difficulties in the nuclear talks, that --- in contrast to Bahari's articulate description of his detention --- that doesn't lead to clarity but even more muddle.
Reader Comments (34)
The Iranian people massively support their nuclear program, a point apparenlty lost on Maziar Bahari and his rush to please the US policy makers.
Bahari was released on condition that he spreads the misleading advertising about green mouvement !! once again, somebody who was paid by this regime; also to find a job !! and the greatest one, he wants to please the Obama administration !! I am fed up with this kind of individual !! too cheap to be bought and what's more, brown nose or arse licker as said our British friends !!
I watched this on the GPS programme yesterday and was amazed when he limited himself to monarchists, Communists and terrorists as examples of the many different components of the opposition. Given that he did this interview 2 weeks ago, maybe he was still a bit dazed from his 118 days in Evin and was still trying to absorb and properly filter the mix of information and terminology he's been exposed to during and after his imprisonment.
It seems that Maziar is turning capo on his own people, rather like Rahm Emanuel is doing to Jews/Israelis.
"Smart sanctions"
I have seen this expression used frequently - I have an idea of what it could mean, but looking for specific examples of what could be done.
There appears to me to be similarities between Iran, China and North Korea - in that, in these countries, the Armies ( for Iran, read Guards) have integrated themselves deeply into the economics of the country, with military actually owning the means of production. North Korea has gone much further with an official policy of "Army First"
Hilary Clinton did use the term "crippling sanctions" -- was that just over-enthusiasm? or meaningless rhetoric. I often hear it said , that because of China and Russia( and even to an extent, Europe) , the US could not apply meaningful further sanctions - but I am not so sure.
Barry
"Unfortunately…we cannot really talk about an opposition movement in Iran because the Green Movement in Iran is just a collection of different groups coming together against the Government. Some of them are monarchists, some of them are Communists, some of them are terrorists."
He limits himself to monarchists, Communists and terrorists as examples of the many different components of the opposition. He was at Evin prison during those times and doesnt have first hand experience during the days of protest. He didnt see many people from all walks of life joined the protest (students, women, children, workers, executives, elders, etc. etc..). He didnt see the actual beating of women, children and elder people. He didnt see the actual shooting, beating, and dragging of students and protesters like an animal in the streets by the police/basiji's. His frame of mind about the opposition movement was limited from pre-protest era until his arrest.
Cecil,
Mr. Bahari was arrested on June 21.
Part of what landed Mr. Bahari in prison was his filming of the attack on the basij office and recording how a basiji on the rooftop shot a protester. He not only witnesses the actual shootings and the dead, he recorded it, and spent 4 months in prison for it.
An EA reader has e-mailed me:
"I was kind of taken aback by your analysis of Maziar Bahari's Washington Post oped. Your site has engaged in much needed level headed analysis in the past of the situation in Iran and I guess I was surprised because of the way in which this particular entry seems to almost be offended that anyone would dare question the efficacy of "the green movement." I may have mis-read your entry and so I wanted to share my thoughts with you.
Mr. Bahari is not saying anything that many of us who have followed the events of post-election Iran don't know. He is just pointing out that the emperor has no clothes: In its current shape, without a sense of unity and without clear leadership or even goals, this is not a movement that can change anything. If you read even the analyses that come out of Iran on various blogs, it's clear that one large problem is that this is a movement that doesn't even know what it wants. If I asked you what are the goals of this movement, what would you say? Change the elections? Overthrow the system? If so, where and how were these goals articulated? There's nothing wrong with a movement not knowing what it wants. What is wrong is when in the name of analysis we ignore this simple fact and cling to wishful thinking instead.
There is nothing muddling about someone pointing out the obvious: Any movement, no matter how lofty its goals and how despicable its target is a collection of various groups with different goals. Saying that separatist groups who employ violence against the state (terrorists), people who want to restore the monarchy, and older leftist communists are part of this amorphous thing we call the green movement, is not muddling. It's just stating the facts. Does it mean it is not or cannot be an important opposition group? I don't think so. Does it mean it should not come into our calculations about Iran? Again, I don't think so. Does it mean knowing the various groups aligned together against a common foe can help us figure out what is going on? Of course.
Mr. Bahari is as connected to Washington as a good journalist should be. Perhaps these days he even has access to people in power that he didn't have before. That he is using his position not to say easy things but to show the complications of the issue at hand is to me commendable. I can easily imagine after 118 days of torture and isolation, he could've come out and given a black and white picture of the situation. He didn't.
At the end of the day, perhaps his analysis seems muddling because it really highlights how unclear the situation is right now."
S.
Mr Bahari is the ONLY high profile post-election detainee to be set free and allowed out of Iran. Did anyone really believe the regime's explanation that he was allowed out of the country because his wife was due to give birth (the same regime that murders children without impunity)? You do not need to be a conspiracy theorist to realize that Mr Bahari may have had to agree to paying a great price for his freedom, as IRI's ambassaador. And to those who say Mr Bahari is merely verbalizing what we all know, with due respect, I must say I had no idea the most exemplary elements of the Green Movement are monarchist, communists and terrorists. I wonder which of those groups Neda belonged to.
Dear reader, on behalf of whom Scott writes,
When you are candidate runnig for the presidency in a country , you speak in public, you try to set out your ideas trying to attract people and moussavi had done it !
Because of the rigged election, millions of them were in the street to claim their rights !
The goals of the mouvement are what iranian people had heard during the campaign, hence their choice ! more democracy, more freedom especially for the women, the journalists , the artists, people who need freedom to do their job expressing themself freely ! I think either you didn't understand what were these elections in Iran or you are an alien coming from "Mars planet"; I don't care about Mr Bahari and what he has said because , as soon as, he will be countered ( thanks to new system of communication of the green mouvement ); I know he had very bad days in prison and it was a nightmare but he's wrong to exploit this sadness for the sake of himself ! he's wrong to break my people's dream !! a deam for which they have lost their life !! oh my god !! I feel sick !
NS,
I know when Mr. Bahari was arrested and I know he was there in the protest right after the election of June 12 filming and documenting what was happening on that day and I'm very sorry that he was arrested for that. During that protest, they are only shouting "where is my vote" but after that, it is completely different. They are now asking democracy, freedom, justice and their sacred rights after this regime shows brutality in their peaceful protest. They are now completely awaken from 30 years of oppression by this rouge regime. Mr. Bahari was not there when the basiji/police attacks the people who just gather to mourn the dead (Neda). He was not there when this thugs(police/basiji) beat a helpless woman who just happened to pass by. He was not there when the basiji's attack the students dorm and ransacked their rooms and beat, arrests and killed students and many more... They are not terrorist or monarchist or communist? It is wrong for Mr. Bahari to tag this movement as a collection of terrorist, monarchist and communist. Its a big insult for the movement who already lost precious lives whose only asking for their rights and freedom. But after all this brutality and repression, I dont think asking for their rights and freedom is enough for the movement now. They want a complete regime change and its coming soon...
"The problem for the US Government is that, combined with the difficulties in the nuclear talks, that — in contrast to Bahari’s articulate description of his detention — that doesn’t lead to clarity but even more muddle."
Agreed. 1000%. Well said, too.
Mr Obama
You have to aknowledge that if " the iranian internal problem " were resolved, all the other problems, from nuclear issue to terrorism all over the world, should be too ! don't care about what the people like Mr Bahari, coming from Iran and being emprisonned there, could say; they are under pressure or bought by this iranian terrorist regime to spread this kind of informations for the " sake of the regime "; you have to lesson to the people who dare to demonstrate in spite of the " huge " repression in the country, shouting for their freedom; you have to lesson to what the iranian opposition have said to be so successful by iranian people :
1- We are not the ennemy of Israel
2- We don't want nuclear bomb
3- We don't want to send our money to terrorists and will use it for the sake of the country
4- All the people will be free to express themself without any pressure or repression
5- We want the democracy
I don't know if you have seen the " official " representants of the green mouvement , I don't mean people like "Bahari " or " Parsi " but the iranian "intellectuals" who share in the daily debates, every day, on VOA, I think it's nothing to try it, perhaps all this muddled situation will be clearer in your head.
Thank you.
Hugs.
Best Wishes
Think I know what I'm gonna write about.
Wow, this was disturbing, not to mention a bit surprising, to wake up at 3:30 AM and read. Bahari dismissing the green movement as "monarchists, Communists, and terrorists"?
I particularly wonder what interests Bahari has that could have been threatened by the regime to alter what he might say after release, as well as what he may not be realizing by having been in prison for most of the post-election period. Yes, I agree that the Green movement does have some significant problems, not the least of which is that it is a collection of individuals who dont agree on everything and don't always have a plan, but this depiction is still startlingly negative.
In particular, I'd like to know who are the "terrorists within the opposition" who are allegedly taking over?
I am yet to see a single person who has been captured and kept hostage at Evin prison, who has been forced to confess to crimes he/she had not committed, who has either paid ransom (bail) and set free or who has done his or her time at Evin to act, talk and live as a free person. Once you have become a hostage/prisoner of this regime you are a hostage/prisoner for life. Whether it s the psychological trauma or concerns for their family members (to become the next target) they turn into a sympathetic voice for the regime. I have listen to many who have been in Evin prison and to me what they say is nothing but a Forced Concession.
The sad part about Maziar Bahari’s take on Green Movement is that he is well connected and respected in Washington circle. Iran regime knew that too and used it to its advantage.
To EA reader who had sent e-mail to Scott,
1. Maziar Bahari had NOT been asked to report as a correspondent. He had been asked to speak about his ordeal as a political prisoner who had been released on bail.
2. People goal is clear. They want no dictatorship, no king in turban and robe (the SL concept), no tainted election (they have not had a single clean election for the past 30 years), an end to government corruption, an end to looting by Islamic Republic, a constitution that is worth the paper it is written on, a constitution that gives them the right of self determination, freedom of expression and assembly. Do they have clear strategic and tactical plans to achieve their goals? How could they when they do not have the right to freely assemble and organize?
good josh shahryar, go on !
While I only partly understand your worries about the effect Bahari's take on the opposition might have in Washington, I think it is unfair to question his integrity just on the basis of these few, in fact "muddled", sentences. Consider: 1) more than 100 days of pressure and brainwashing in Evin 2) pressure on family and friends in Iran 3) the editing done by the tv-show: it is obvious from the video that he said more on the opposition AND that he was not very precise (which might be further proof for the balancing act he has to do considering his mother in Iran), so editing might accentuate some of his opinions more than he actually meant. 4) More general: The fear of radicalization of the green movement, regional disintegration (Balutchestan) and a weakening of the central power are quite common in Iran (e.g. Shamsolvaezin in this interview http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,4864437,00.html) and somehow express the shared historical experience of a constant change between social unrest/anarchy and autocratic rule - a vicious circle that Iran has yet to break (cf. Homa Katouzian's Arbitrary Rule and Society).
So don't overestimate these few phrases of an individual who has just escaped confinement in Iran and who has other things to do than lobbying against the Green movement, that is to say enjoying freedom and family. Rather, the focus should be on how the movement could overcome its apparent weaknesses (strategic and content wise) and for instance counter any media spinning that pictures it as effectless and/or radical.
Mac
Do you think it's fair to compare the demonstrators to the terrorists ? As has said one reader, Neda or Sohrab or others killed or raped ( destroyed for the rest of their life ), belonged to which of the three groups cited by Mr " Bahari " ?
ange paris
No I don't think at all that it is fair to compare the victims of these repressions to terrorists and it is right to be estranged by this. But I also think that our focus (as bystanders, participants, sympathizers, analysts etc. of the green movement) should not be on the words of one individual leading to strange suspicions and internal dispute. Bahari obviously had not or could not express a clear opinion on the movement, that's it. And he will be as interested as the rest of us to see a democratic Iran. How to get there and how to arrive at a strong united movement with an effective framing of its goals ...that should be the main concern.
Here's the transcript of Maziar Bahari's interview with Charlie Rose. Apparently Bahari is/was doing the rounds of all the "thoughtful" interviewers while in the US. In this one he speaks quite a bit about terrorism and terrorist groups, but does not identify them with the opposition.
http://www.charlierose.com/download/transcript/10731
His interrogator did consider Bahari himself to be a terrorist, though:
"As you know, Ayatollah Khamenei started talking about this soft war
against Iran by the West. And by soft war he means the war that is staged
by the Western media. And he actually, my interrogator called me a
peaceful terrorist. And he told me that, Mr. Bahari, you are a peaceful
terrorist. And because of that, you are more dangerous than anyone who
kills and assassinates people. Because those people, they just kill one
person or destroy one individual. But you, you corrupt minds. And it is
just that they didn’t know what to do with maybe half of the population who
rose against Ahmadinejad and vicariously against Khamenei’s rule".
There is no "terrorists" in green mouvement; he has used " deliberately " a term that scare the "West "; the problems of Balouchistan and jundallah are different and it's a problem between the regime and this erea for long time; he has to assess the words in his mouth before coming out with !!
Thanks to all for a very useful discussion.
Mac, I appreciate your thoughts and wanted to pick up on your point re "the words of one individual". I don't think I would have been concerned, and thus posted this prominently, had it not been for my impression that Bahari's words carry weight in Washington. He is a very talented journalist and observer of Iranian politics, so I suspect his views will resonate with policymakers. (The National Iranian American Council has come out with an effusive endorsement of his proposal for "smart sanctions" as backing for its own position.)
Of course, in his discussions with those policymakers, Bahari may have expressed himself a bit differently --- given editing and pressure of the television interviews as well as the context of writing for Washington Post --- than he did in the video and opinion piece.
S.
@ Ange de Paris
If you read the Charlie Rose interview you'll see he limits his use of "terrorists" to MEK and separatist groups like Jundullah..... except of course for the story I quoted above in which his interrogator called *him* a "peaceful terrorist" :-).