Iran on Moharram, Day 1: The Regime Flops?

It's just before 1300 GMT (1630 Tehran time) and, based on Iranian media coverage and sources from Iran, we are willing to venture the following:

At the start of today, we asked, "How significant will their own effort and that of their supporters be today?" The answer: "Not very".

Apart from Press TV, it didn't appear this mornig that Iranian state media was even trying to put out the story of a mass demonstration for the regime. Fars News is still filled with reports of speeches from Ayatollahs and Hojetoleslams but has nothing beyond these.

The Latest from Iran (18 December): Moharram Begins

From about 1:30 p.m. Tehran time, about 90 minutes after Friday Prayers had finished, Press TV went into hyper-drive with its assertion of "millions" of Iranians campaigning against the insult to Ayatollah Khomeini on 16 Azar (7 December). Just after 4 p.m. Tehran time (1230 GMT), IRNA finally posted an article with the "millions" claim and the photograph shown in our inset.

Apart from a live shot of a crowd in Tehran's Enghelab Square, Press TV had little to back up its correspondent's on-a-sound-loop report of the Iranian nation's mass rebuke to the Green opposition's alleged treatment of Khomeini; the station fell back on photographs which may or may not have been of today's gathering (one showed an awful lot of leaves on trees for December). It has now gone quiet on the story, apart from a boiler-plate 15-second summary each half-hour.

EA sources report the following: after the 12 p.m. Azaan, for which all Iranian channels break, there was no live coverage of any supposed demonstrations. Some images on Iranian television before that had suspect colour schemes of the supposed crowd for the outdoor sermon, packing "too many people in too small a space as usual". Another source says that the regime struggled to even fill Enghelab Square, the focal point of the demonstration.

Beyond the question of whether there was a significant turnout, another point stands out. Press TV's coverage is so concentrated on the insult to Ayatollah Khomeini that it leaves the Supreme Leader, let alone President Ahmadinejad, suspended in a vacuum. That is not exactly a boost for regime "legitimacy" amidst post-election questions.

IRNA has tried to redress this with its article boosting slogans such as "all divisions come to support the Leader" and defending Ahmadinejad. There is also a shot at Mir Hossein Mousavi and claims that the crowd was demanding punishment of opposition leaders.

Right now, however (and accepting that this is only an interim assessment), this appears to be too shrill, too little, and too late. The regime has had one day to itself, and I am not sure it has delivered.

Comments

[The Extended Finger From the M]

[...] The mullahs tried to stage monster rallies in support of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei today, but it fizzled.  This is a remarkable failure, as demonstrators were promised free food and a cash stipend.  [...]