The Latest from Iran (18 December): Moharram Begins

2310 GMT: A Sad End, Another Day. We took the night off to catch our breath (and catch up with some friends), as Iran winds down after an anti-climactic and possibly damaging day for the regime.

On a day that started with the cyber-drama of the attack on Twitter, probably by a group supporting the Iranian Government, the evening ends with the sad news that the domain of Mowj-e-Sabz, one of the key locations for information in this crisis, has been released for purchase. The activists of the website announced yesterday that they are taking a well-earned break.

But we'll back in a few hours to see what Saturday brings.

NEW Iran on Moharram, Day 1: The Regime Flops?
NEW Latest Iran Video: Mehdi Karroubi Interview with BBC (17 December)
NEW Iran: The Regime Takes On (Hacks?) Twitter for Moharram
Iran Analysis: The Regime’s Sword Wavers
Latest Iran Video: Interview of the “Basij Member” on the Election and Abuses (16 December)
Iran & The Arrest of Majid Tavakoli: “To Men Who Are Not Ashamed of Being a Woman” (Shirin Ebadi)
Latest Iran Video: The Larijani Threat to Arrest Green Leaders (16 December)
The Latest from Iran (17 December): An Uncertain Regime

1810 GMT: Stratospheric Media Speculation of Day. The cyber-attack on Twitter this morning (see separate analysis)? It's all down to the Iranian Government's new strategy in the nuclear negotiations.

That's according to TechCrunch, who get bored with all things computer-y and decide to become political analysts (this morning, they didn't even know that the "Iranian Cyber Army" had been assaulting Green Movement websites):

Other sources told us that the timing of the attack on Twitter is part of a concerted effort across the Iranian government and military to take a stronger diplomatic stance against the United States and European Union in the lead up to negotiations on Iran’s nuclear plans.

Oh, yes, it has to be all about "us" in the West and not about the internal political battle in Iran. That's why the hackers went after the website Mowj-e-Sabz, which as far as I know is not involved in any way with discussions of uranium enrichment. And that's why they invoked Imam Hossein, who may just have something to do with the first day of Moharram, which just happens to be today.

All of this would be end-of-day silliness were it not for the high-profile and normally perceptive blog The Daily Dish, who decided to feature this as the real story behind the Iran Regime v. Twitter fight.

1730 GMT: More "The News is No News". Fars News, spinning a tough line, only offers further testimony to the weakness of the regime's position. It headlines the warning of the Supreme Leader's aide, Mohammad Hassan Rahimian (see 1405 GMT), that those who "continue to intrigue...will encounter the worst possible situation" and the response of those demonstrating, "Green riot leaders should be executed".

At no point, however, does Fars let us know how many actually joined in this heart-warming performance.

1630 GMT: The News is No News. Our interim assessment of the regime's "flop" today is holding up pretty well. Press TV website's story drops the "millions" of its over-excited (or over-scripted) correspondent and of other state media; indeed, it puts no number at all on a rather bland description of the protest for Ayatollah Khomeini.

The non-Iranian media are nowhere to be found. Having chased after the "hacking of Twitter" story, they now have the distraction of some Iranian troops acting up on the border and occupying a (possibly out-of-use) Iraqi oil well. We're monitoring the story, but sources indicate this incident, which appears to the third incursion in recent weeks, is more a political signal by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps --- don't think of attacking Iran --- than the start of a serious conflict.

1440 GMT: Western Mediawatch. Let's give Reuters credit for at least noticing that something happened in Tehran today, as other outlets are blissfully void of news.

That said, Reuters' headline --- "Death to Mousavi" --- succeeds in being both sensationalist and tangential at the same time. It may be that some folks chanted, "Mousavi, this is our last warning. The sedition leaders should be executed," and that --- as we just noted --- the regime put out one representative (Rahimian) to issue that call.

This lifting of a few snippets from Iranian state media, however, says nothing about the size of the rallies or their political impact (or lack of such).

1405 GMT: Shaking the Fist. Actually, in the context of the threats earlier this week, the regime's efforts today were not that intimidating. Ayatollah Emami Kashani, the leader of Friday Prayers in Tehran, does not exactly cut the most menacing figure.

That said, Mohammad Hassan Rahimian, the Supreme Leader’s former representative in the Bonyad-e Shahid (Martyrs' Foundation), tried his best in his speech in front of Tehran university. Arrest the opposition leaders? Too soft, asserted Rahimian: why not execute them?

And here's today's unsubtle connection: Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi has declared that the cases of several people accused of "insulting Imam Khomeini" will go to court next week.

1310 GMT: An Interim Assessment of The Regime's Demonstration on Moharram. We have enough to venture an interim assessment of the significance of today's events for the regime and its attempt to establishment of "legitimacy".

1125 GMT: Hmmm..... IRNA now has a story about today's events, but it is a dry recitation of a "Friday Prayers" resolution condemning the insult to Ayatollah Khomeini, accompanied by a photograph of a group of protesters (see inset).

1100 GMT: The Regime's Day. Press TV has now got its lines straight, "Iran Outrage", with shots of thousands in Enghelab Square in Tehran and large posters of Ayatollah Khomeini (but note: few prominent images of the Supreme Leader). Correspondent Saman Kojouri is reciting the same litany he used 30 minutes ago.

Fars and IRNA still have no visible coverage on their websites. (This has now changed with IRNA --- see our interim assessment.)

1030 GMT: Let's Try This Again. OK, now this is more like it. Here's Press TV's live coverage from "the streets of Tehran" with correspondent Saman Kojouri:

Thousands of Iranians, millions of Iranians all across the nation have taken to the streets, especially here in the capital Tehran. The people have flooded the streets after Friday prayers to show their anger over what happened a few days on December 7th, when an insult occurred against the portrait of Imam Khomeini, the Father and Founder of the Islamic Revolution.

From that day on, the Student Day on, the public outrage went high across the country and many people took to the streets, from different walks of life.

Kojouri repeats this for about four minutes. The widest shots offered by Press TV are of thousands at the venue outside Tehran Friday Prayers.

1015 GMT: Really, That's All You've Got? So far, the story has been lack of attention byIranian state media to the ceremonies for the first day of Moharram. The Islamic Republic News Agency's lead story is on 250 new suppliers of "hot meat" in Tehran.

Press TV has the Copenhagen Summit at #1, then it's Iran's nuclear programme at #2, and only then do Tehran's Friday Prayers sneak in. The spin is unsurprising: Ayatollah Mohammad Emami Kashani, leading the prayers, has criticised the defacing of the image of Imam Khomeini. He then "called on Iranians to be aware of enemy plots to take advantage of objections against the June Presidential election....The protests that started in the wake of the vote will eventually benefit the enemies."

And Kashani's reference to the political challenge from Hashemi Rafsanjani, Mir Hossein Mousavi, the Green Movement? "Officials should try to prevent radical moves that...merely triggered  new triggers in the country....All political groups should stick to the guidelines of the Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, to resolve disputes and promote unity."

0933 GMT: Pushing "Regime Change". The Wall Street Journal, a firm advocate of the toppling of not only the Ahmadinejad Government but the Islamic Republic, features an editorial by Heshmat Tabarzadi, leader of the Iran Democratic Front:

Dec. 7 [the protests of 16 Azar] proved that the movement for a free, democratic Iran is robust and only growing in strength. If the government continues to opt for violence, there very well may be another revolution in Iran. One side has to step down. And that side is the government—not the people.

Here's the interesting points, especially in light of the continuing debates over the aims of the Green Movement. Tabarzadi never uses the words "regime change" --- those belong to the Journal's headline writers --- but he does feature university protests "openly denouncing the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, challenging the entirety of the ruling establishment, and demanding the separation of religion and state".

So does this constitute the demise of the Islamic Republic?

0930 GMT: Karroubi Reaches the West. We've posted the video of the BBC's (rather disappointing) interview with Mehdi Karroubi.

0750 GMT: Iran Mediawatch (2). After early-morning silence on Moharram from regime outlets, Fars News is now headlining today's commemorations, claiming ownership of Ayatollah Khomenei amidst the recent "burning picture" controversy: "United Iran will declare its love for the Imam".

0740 GMT: Cyber-wars for Moharram. Here's an entry we didn't expect to write today: an Iranian group, which also took over the Mowj-e-Sabz website this week, has claimed to have hacked Twitter, which has been running slowly since 1200 GMT on Thursday. We've got the latest.

0655 GMT: Iran Mediawatch. Right now, the state media --- at least on the Web --- are more concerned with "bigging up" President Ahmadinejad and his speech in Copenhagen ("capitalism and materialism are to blame for environmental crisis", "profit-making approach to the world resources must be avoided,", ""greenhouse gas emission has dealt a blow to the planet earth") than they are with today's events. The Islamic Republic News Agency confines itself to a statement from the head of the Islamic Propaganda Organization that Moharram commemorations will be even bigger and better than last year.

0630 GMT: Eleven days after the protests of National Students Day on 16 Azar, the holy month of Moharram begins today. In contrast to the period between previous important public occasions since July, there has been no significant pause in protest, demonstration, and political manoeuvre. University campuses have continued to simmer, the regime has raised the threat level with its dark hints of arrests and trials, and opposition political figures have been more forthcoming in their statements despite (and indeed because of) those threats.

So we begin this morning watching for two signs of the political situation. The easier reading will probably be of the opposition. The indecision over whether to march today, diluting if not seizing the Government's control of the commemoration of Moharram, is likely to end in 1) a declaration from Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi that they regret that their request for a permit has been denied by the regime; and 2) an acceptance by most of the Green movement that it is best to lie low. A scattering of opposition demonstrators are likely to turn out, but this will not be an organised response.

So that leaves the public arena open to the regime for the first time in six months and raises the more difficult question: how significant will their own effort and that of their supporters be today? As an EA reader noted yesterday, the answer does not rest solely or even primarily on the number who appear at Friday Prayers and the subsequent rally: there are enough core elements such as the Basiji movement and enough people who will be brought into the demonstration to fill a television screen or the front page of a newspaper. How many others will not only turn out but will be vocal in their acclamation for not only Imam Khomeini but also the Supreme Leader? And perhaps more significantly in the short-term, how many will be raising their voices not only for Ayatollah Khamenei but also Mahmoud Ahmadinejad?

Comments

[Megan]

Ahmadi gets tongue-tight in Copenhagen: http://www.peykeiran.com/Content.aspx?ID=10875
He also is not on the Queen guest list for dinner. Who can blame the Queen!

[Catherine]

Someone joked on Twitter than AN was going to hire the Salahi couple to help him get in.....

[Megan]

Catherine,

LOL, that is funny. I do not think Salahi(s) cannot help Ahmadi(s). Mrs. Ahmadi's fashion, black chador (hejaab), makes it difficult to sneak her in.

[Babak Khorramdin]

Just watched PressTV. I find it strange that they have close-up live broadcasting showing the pro-gov demo, but when they show the crowds, they use photos. Do they have something to hide?

[Scott Lucas]

Babak,

I just noticed the same thing with the photos, one of which I am pretty sure is from the summer (note leaves on the trees). The live shot from Enghelab Square showing thousands there appears authentic.

S.

[Babak Khorramdin]

Scott

Thanks for pointing out that (significant) detail! I didn't notice that.

I agree with you regarding the live shot, but I have a feeling that the regime is not impressed by the turnout.

[Scott Lucas]

Babak,

Press TV is still trying hard to play up how big the rally is, but no more correspondent reports and the supporting images don't really establish the claim.

Interesting that nothing significant on IRNA's website.

S.

[Scott Lucas]

Arshama,

Thanks for all of these useful updates.

S.

[Arshama]

Rouydad News reports on a rather cold reception of the regime's Khomeini-Show by the people today: http://www.rouydadnews.com/pages/774.php
Throughout the country pupils in uniforms were carried to the protests. In Tehran the whole area around Enghelab square was filled with busses carrying soldiers, old people from rest homes and underaged pupils to fill the streets. http://www.peykeiran.com/Content.aspx?ID=10908
Reminds me very much of the Nazis' last days.
And then... Danish Queen's homepage was hacked as well:
http://gameron.files.wordpress.com/2009/12/queen-of-denmark.jpg

[sheyma]

Just saw this. Iranian women's karate teams takes of veils in competition in germany!

http://ipna.ir/gallery.aspx?newsid=24546

[ange paris]

The computer syst. of the american fighters ( aeroplane) in Irak were hacked too, it's why global media are focused on it !! it's said that an iranian and pakistanais team were involved in this event !

[Kasra]

Hi Scott,
I still can’t bring myself to terms with the shutting down of Mowjcamp. Very disappointed.
I really hope you guys, with your absolutely beautiful daily analyses, stay with us right to the end.
V
Kasra

[Bijan]

I took a look at the article posted above regarding the hacking of twitter. To be fair, the writers actual start off in the right direction and then take a major wrong turn but changing the analysis in favor of the theory that the hacking was in response to the nuclear issue. I have suggested any readers of the site who are more interested in this event beyond tech talk to visit this site.

As always cheers to the EA team for their efforts.

[whereismyvote]

The protests today by the government were a dud. There was more posters, portraits, organizers and loud speakers than there was actual people protesting... It says it all that will all this hupla, even the 8 million people that actually voted for AN are now deep in closet. To be an AN supporter is like being a SWASTIKA wearing skinhead in the west. You are socially unacceptable.

Well that said, the best snub of the day award should go to queen of Denmark. I understand that Mr. AN is the only major world leader that did not receive an invite. What great company he may be keeping.

Also of note, is that we have heard Iranian diaspora from Europe have been seen tracking it to Denmark and protesting AN's presence. If confirmed, it is appreciated by all Iranians as it is hard to travel in this Christmas period, and their support gives everyone strength.

On the Hejab issue, it is also for the first time on Ms. Rahnavard's facebook site photos promoting Hejab as optional. This means Hejab will become a new issue for the women cause in Iran next year, and why not? Hejab is only meaningful when selected by the women, and not when enforced by the barrel of a gun.

[Scott Lucas]

Kasra,

Thanks to you and to others for kind words --- it is thanks to you that we persist.

S.

[Megan]

Re: 0933 GMT

Scott,

I listened to Tabarzadi on December 16 and I posted some of his remarks on your blog under “Iran Analysis: The Regime’s Sword Wavers”.

In short, Tabarzadi said people were done with Islamic Republic and they would not back down. He said it was much too late for any reconciliation. He felt any such effort would simply fail because neither the regime nor the people would accept tweaking of the current system. He said student carrying picture of Khomeini in their follow up protests after picture burning hoopla was a political strategy. He, however, was not certain if reformist leaders’ public stance and declaration on the same picture incident was a political ploy or represented their real beliefs. He stated in the case of latter, reformist leaders would lose support of majority of people in the movement.

I have listened to Tabarzadi in two other occasions in the past few months and I do not recall him being so bold, so resolute and so crystal clear on how he saw the movement and what it stood for. So I found that interesting given the fact that he might be arrested any day. He said regime was continuing to harass his wife and added he was accustomed to being in and out of prison. The fact that he was giving that bold interview knowing that the regime intelligence arms monitor that radio station tells me things are coming to a head and the movement is in a home stretch one way or another.

[Scott Lucas]

Megan,

Thank you for this --- I should have recalled your very helpful comment, and this is a helpful extension of the analysis.

S.

[Max Anderson]

Thnx

12. ange paris says:
18 December 2009 at 19:28
The computer syst. of the american fighters ( aeroplane) in Irak were hacked too, it’s why global media are focused on it !! it’s said that an iranian and pakistanais team were involved in this event !

[kevina]

Regarding Karroubi with the BBC, it might have been somewhat disappointing, but that misses the forest from the trees. The Beeb is right. The fact he gave an interview to THE BBC (not even BBC Persian) is huge.

The BBC! An institution this regime has hated since it's inception and Karroubi talked with them? That's what matters.

[Scott Lucas]

Kevin,

I take that point but I would flip it: the regime's permission for the BBC (English) to interview Karroubi is an indication that they are not that worried about his message getting to the "outside world". It would be far more significant if BBC Persian had been given direct access.

(Although it would seem logical that BBC Persian would be able to run the interview on its services in Iran --- does anyone know if that is the case?)

S.

[Catherine]

@ WIMV (post 15) "On the Hejab issue, it is also for the first time on Ms. Rahnavard’s facebook site photos promoting Hejab as optional. "

Very interesting! Could you post a link to the page w/photos? I just looked all over her FB site and couldn't find them.

[Catherine]

@ Sheyma (post 11) re "Just saw this. Iranian women’s karate teams takes of veils in competition in germany!"

He-he. Check this out then - photos of this year's Tehran Police Festival. I thought unrelated men and women weren't supposed to touch each other..... hmmmm :-). And check out the female karate feats on display here! I read on a blog that these female officers come from financially underprivileged families, which would mean these girls are tough, having dealt with lots of shit just growing up.
http://www.ayandenews.com/news/13714/

[Catherine]

@ Megan (post 17) - Do you mean the Heshmatollah Tabarzadi on this video from 29 November, in which he reads aloud a letter (with English subtitles lower right) describing attempts of the Information Ministry to summon his son-in-law, of the judiciary to abduct his daughter, a phone call from a rape victim in Turkey and his announcement that on 16 Azar he will be on the street together with thousands of our students at Tehran University? If so, he is incredibly outspoken.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2I0rzAr0y1c (with EN subtitles)
Transcript in En: http://txtb.in/6K2

[Megan]

Catherine,

Thanks for the Link. I had seen the video before but I watched it again today to compare and contrast with Tabarzadi remarks on December 16.

The video that is prepared on Azar7 (November 28) is gutsy, and he was even more direct in challenging the regime on December 16. One undeniable fact for me is the contrast between Tabarzadi’s carefully measured remarks of last summer and his direct challenge of the regime in the video and the interview of December 16. I wish I had the two previous interviews and we could get other people’s read on that.

The more important point on his December 16 interview was Tabarzadi's doubts regarding reformist leaders and their commitment to people’s will. He was pointing to their nostalgia for Khomeini era and their call to supporters to distance themselves from picture burning controversy. You do not hear such doubts on this November 28 video. If anything, he is calling people to gather in support of reformist leaders on 16 Azar. He no longer was making such call on 12/16. If anything he was asking for other leaders to step forward and lead the movement.