Iran: The Non-Violent "Watershed" of the Mousavi Statement (Shahryar)
Saturday, January 2, 2010 at 12:58 
EA's Josh Shahryar offers his views, complementing but also differing from those of EA's Scott Lucas, on the post-Ashura declaration of Mir Hossein Mousavi:Mir Hossein Mousavi today released a new statement denouncing the regime’s brutal tactics against the Green Movement and outlined peaceful measures the government can take to calm the situation. While the statement is quite similar to other statements he has released in the past, several points on closer inspection stand out. The statement also shows Mousavi’s resolve and his continued willingness to finding a peaceful resolution to the current crisis.
One of the most striking features of the speech is Mousavi omitting any mention of the killing of his nephew Sayyed Ali Mousavi in Tehran on Ashura (27 December). It echoes his response and that of his wife, Zahra Rahnavard, response to the imprisonment of her brother, Shahpour Kazemi, which they kept private or months because they did not want to let personal statements speak for the entire Green Movement.
Iran: A Gut Reaction to Mousavi’s “Martyrdom v. Compromise” Statement
Iran Document: Mousavi’s “5 Stages to Resolution” Statement (1 January)
The Latest from Iran (2 January): The Ripples of the Mousavi Statement
What is more important, however, is that Mousavi for the first time discounts his own influence and that of Mehdi Karroubi. He admits that even though people asked him to call for protests or at least lend his support, he did not do so in the case of Ashura. He also acknowledges the fact that people came out without his call.
The Green Movement has partially spiraled out of the hands of Karroubi and Mousavi. What this could achieve cannot be easily quantified or qualified, but it is important that the movement will continue even if Mousavi and Karroubi are no longer alive. Mousavi acknowledges this by saying that he is ready to die alongside other members of the movement, knowing that the opposition would not disappear.
Beyond this, there are three significant new points First off, Mousavi openly speaks out against the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps. It is no secret that the IRGC has been one of the driving forces behind the suppression of peaceful protesters and the main source of the power of the Supreme Leader and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. . Along the Basij – which falls under its command – they have been responsible for most of the bloodshed on the streets of Iran during protests.
Mousavi ridicules the IRGC, possibly sending a message to his supporters that they can now openly denounce the Revolutionary Guard as well as Basij. As he denounces corruption in his statement, Mousavi says, “We say that a large and influential organization like IRGC cannot defend the country and national interests if it wants to calculate everyday how much the stock market has gone up or down; it will corrupt both itself and the country.”
Secondly, Mousavi again questions the government’s legitimacy. In an earlier statement yesterday, presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei denounced Ashura protests and forwarded the preposterous idea that Mousavi has somehow come to accept Ahmadinejad as Iran’s president. Despite this, and possibly responding to it, Mousavi continues to defy Ahmadinejad. Iranian state media’s propaganda regarding Rezaei’s letter --- that Mousavi has "retreated" and now acknowledges Government legiimtacy --- is promptly disqualified:
Assume that, with all the arrests, brutalities, threats, and shutting the mouths of newspapers and media, you can silence people for a few days. How do you solve the change in people’s view of the establishment? How do you rectify the lack of legitimacy? How do you change the stunned and blaming views of all people of the world over all this brutality of a government against its own people? What do you do with the problems of the country’s economy and living conditions that are getting worse because of extreme weakness of the administration? With what backing of expertise, national unity and effective foreign policy, can you alleviate the shadow of more UN resolutions and international attempts to win more points against our country and our nation?
Mousavi places the calls of pro-regime protesters and Friday Prayer leaders for the killing of Mousavi and Karroubi squarely upon the government:
I clearly and bluntly say that the order of execution, murder, or imprisonment of Karoubi, Mousavi and figures like us will not solve the problem. The announcements made this Wednesday in Enghelab Square (central Tehran) and before that during the last Friday prayer by some figures affiliated with the establishment will make the consequence of any terrorist act the direct liability of the center [of the establishment] and will make the problem of the current crisis unsolvable.
Thirdly, and perhaps most important, Mousavi acknowledges the opposition taking action against security forces during the demonstrations while putting the blame for violence against security forces on the government. He neither endorses these actions, nor asks for further actions in future protests; instead, he also notes that people were compassionate to security forces and tried to save them from angrier protesters.
The passage is significant because it indicates that Mousavi continues to wish for a peaceful political resolution and does not want the government to be violently overthrown:
Watching the shocking footage of Ashura shows that if sometimes slogans and actions moved toward unacceptable radicalism, it is because of throwing innocent people off bridges and heights, shooting them, running them over by cars and assassinations. It is interesting that in some of this footage, people were seeing their [religious] brothers behind the faces of the oppressive police and Basij forces, and in that critical situation and on that deafening and hateful day they were trying to protect them from any harm. If the state-run television and radio had the slightest bit of fairness,to calm the atmosphere and bring people closer together, it would have shown a little of these scenes. But no way! The progress of events after Ashura and the extent of arrests and other Government actions show that the authorities are repeating the same past mistakes this time in a greater scale and think that the policy of terror is their only solution.
Mousavi again calmly asks the government to take steps to resolve the current crisis. This might seem repetitive; however, it comes as no surprise. The Green Movement has repeatedly shown that they are open to talks and that they are not in favor of violence, unless it is required in self-defense and then only in extreme cases. Finally, the movement still hopes for a peaceful and non-violent resolution to the current conflict. Mousavi outlines these points in his five-point proposal:
1. The administration should be held liable in front of the people, the parliament and the judiciary system so that there would be no unusual supports for the administration in response to its incompetence and ineffectiveness and the administration be held accountable for all the problems it created for the country. For sure if the administration is competent and right it would be able to respond to the people and the parliament, and if it is incompetent and inept, the parliament and the judiciary system would confront it based on the constitution.
2. Legislating new and clear election laws in a way that it would regain people’s trust in the free and fair elections without meddling and interference. This law should ensure the participation of all the people despite their differences in opinions and views and should prohibit the biased and partisan interference of the authorities in all levels. The primary parties in early days of the revolution can be considered as a model.
3. The release of all political prisoners and restoring their dignity and honour. I am sure that this move would be interpreted as a strong point for the establishment rather than a weakness and we know that the defeated political movements are against this solution.
4. One of the necessities of the improvement is the release of the banned press and media and letting the shut down newspapers to publish again. The fear of free media should be eliminated and the international experience in this matter should be considered. The expansion of the satellite channels and their growing importance and the decisive influence of this media clearly show the inadequacy of the traditional methods and limitations of National TV and radio channels. Signal jamming methods and internet censorship can only be effective for a short time. The only solution is having various free and informed media inside the country. Isn’t it time to turn eyes back from beyond our borders to domestic political, cultural and social prosperity by a courageous act and based on trusting the intellectual and innovative forces of the society?
5. Recognizing people’s rights for having legal demonstrations and forming parties and groups and abiding to the 27th principle of the constitution. Acting in this matter that can be done with the wisdom and collaboration of all of the country’s enthusiasts can replace the battle between the Basij and security forces and people or people and people with an atmosphere of friendship and national affection.
After all is said and done, Mousavi’s statement can be seen as a watershed. After the bloody events of Ashura, many expected Mousavi to give some consideration to more violent means to change the political situation. In this statement, he could have at warned the government or, at least the IRGC or the Basij, of violent confrontations. Instead, he offered his own life instead of endorsing retaliation.
This is perhaps the last chance for the Government of Iran to act peacefully if it wants to resolve the current crisis. Tensions run high. Arrests are becoming rampant. Violence has increased. Mousavi and Karroubi no longer look as safe as they did a few months ago. In such a climate, Mousavi’s conciliatory statement is a breath of fresh air. Whether the government is going to make use of the time that is running out or not remains to be seen.
Reader Comments (12)
Thank you very much, Josh, for this Iranian interpretation of Moussavi's speech!
Yesterday commentators on VOA stressed the fact that he is talking from a position of strength, while the regime's continued menaces testify to its inability to realise what is really going on in the country.
Today students of Tehran's Polytechnique boycotted final exams, protesting against the arrests of their fellows (as announced by Sazegara two or three days ago). Likewise Amir Kabir students have announced to boycott classes and exams in solidarity with killed and arrested fellows. Obviously the movement develops new methods to put more pressure on the regime day by day, and obviously it is as self-organized as indicated by Katzmann and others in yesterday's Washington Times.
The only response to this is more terror. After the show trials in recent months the revolutionary court has announced trials against "violators of revolutionary ideals", starting on Sunday: http://www.rahesabz.net/story/6937/#When:00:10:26Z
Another sign of weakness is depriving dissident cleric ayatollah Sanei from being a "marja" in Qom: http://www.peykeiran.com/Content.aspx?ID=11618
Moussavi's commitment to non-violence becomes even more momentous, when a cleric propagates the killing of opposition protesters on state TV: http://www.payvand.com/news/10/jan/1006.html
I believe that knowing the state of mind of SL and the Pasdaran, and knowing that AN is an argumentative, conversationalist and a pathological lier and the Basiji are sadistic murderers, Mousavi made this statement.
It will frame the battles to come in the following form
1) Clearly shows that Mousavi and Karroubi are pro reform of the system rather than its annihilation.
2) It separates Mousavi from the more radical branch of the Green Movement that will in the coming months split and take up arms against the IRGC
3) It lays a 5 point path to reconciliation, however note that even accepting one of the five points is tantamount to suicide for the SL / Pasdaran alliance.
4) It clearly grabs the high moral ground from the government and frames Mousavi and Karoubi in a positive light (Externally this is very important, as it makes Mousavi and his five point demands now immediately palatable to the west)
5) It confronts the violence of the regime to come with non violence
and so on....... It is brilliant statement and at the same time it is not going to change anything. Look at the trends, and since the start of the crisis, every time after a big big protest we have had the unity plan revived, be it through Rafsanjani, the ulema, then the conservatives in the Majlis and then rezai and now Mousavi etc... It always has failed. You have to realize that the SL is now in the second seat, Pasdaran are driving. AN was always just a Pasdaran doll and he is now pulled back. Before we were talking of the SL throwing AN overboard to survive, now we have to talk of the Pasdaran throwing SL over to survive. The game has changed. We need to continue to go to the streets in million man marches. The battle and victory is not even at grasp. I fear the western media called the end of the regime too closely. It will at least take another 6 months, maybe more, but expect more messages like this from Mousavi and Karoubi in the coming months. It is all part of the strategy of dividing the enemy. SL / Pasdaran shall dispense more violence for now, but I am sure many of the Pasdaran rank and file are thinking of what it will take to save their own skin now.
in original text there is no speaking of ALL political prisoners
if i read the original text i would think he means the post election political prisoners
you can read the original (farsi) and english translation here :
http://www.facebook.com/note.php?note_id=231350482605&id=45061919453&ref=mf
Is that a mistake in translation?
what you think??
"it makes Mousavi and his five point demands now immediately palatable to the west"
I think only an end to the whole Khomeinist anti-Western theocracy and its current imperialist agenda will be palatable.
I believe that it's all part of the fight for the moral high ground with Moussavi pursuing a "democratic & constitutional" path and the regime a "religious & traditional" one. And I agree with others that this is all positioning and won't change the confrontation course. The regime will continue doing more of the same and the opposition will continue to demonstrate. The key is the economy with a few important questions. (1) will the bazar or key sectors (oil. Banking, etc) call for strikes? (2) will AN implement an end to subsidies and what would that do to the lower middle class' opinion and involvement? (3) will a rift develop within the IRGC? Without major change driven by some of the above, the status quo could last a very long time.
WIMV,
During the Iran-Iraq war, critics of the IRGC leadership said that they improperly plan, overestimate their abilty and believe their own hype. It seems they don't learn.
One thing the Greens on the street could do for the rank and file is assure them that when the crisis is resolved their will be an amnesty council.
The focus should be on the Revolutionary Coup leaders being held fully accountable. My view still is Mesbah-Yazdi is the one grabbing for the throne. His own words state that he believes in poltical mass murder and he has a contingent of followers to enforce it. As dicussed earlier, some felt he could not be elected SL, but he has his own yes vote and 85 locked and loaded rifles of his minions get the remaining votes or abstentions.
Good luck in keeping up the Fight.
Those calling for a total overthrow or collapse of the system need to keep in mind that a regime doesn't "literally" collapse just through peaceful protests. When a regime "collapses" it doesn't generally mean they simply withered away when enough people took to the streets wearing velvet. What it generally means is that public pressure and disobedience reached a level where either:
1. The regime decides it cannot hold on to power through feasible methods and relents to public calls for serious democratic reform (as happened in Poland/Czechoslovakia in 1989; and that is the route that Mousavi is going for here)
or
2. Seeing that the regime can no longer hold power through feasible methods indefinitely, some faction of the governing establishment/security forces decides to make a forceful coup to better manage the transition (which is what happened to Causescu).
I don't see option number 2 happening as long as the government can fund its inherently repressive nature (ever expanding its security forces and bribing larger portions of society) simply through oil revenues that do not require public participation or obedience to continue. This will end soon but it will probably take a few years still.
So for the time being Mousavi is going for option #1 since the pressure is primarily public protest and civil disobedience rather than primarily economic or structural (although that is in the mail in the years to come). However in order to accept this option, Khamenei needs to accept that some sort of transition is inevitable and it does not look like he's come to that point. The only way I can see to speed up that process is to stop the oil industry either by oil sector strike or some form of industrial sabotage.
Please correct me if my memory is wrong - but remember that it was the IRGC that publicly stated (WELL BEFORE THE ELECTION) that a "velvet revolution" (meaning conducted via the coming election) would not be allowed. As far as I can recall, it was basically only the IRGC that went this far - to make this statement openly and publicly and BEFORE the election.
Barry
Barry,
Yes, Jafari made that a key point on becoming commander.
Seems to me that the situation is much more fluid than Mousavi and the Mullahs/IRGC are willing to admit. Why publish such a document on the eve what my be the end of the regime? With the planned burning of hijabs next week, I think this act alone will drive a permanent wedge between the people and its enemies-the establishment (regime). This document just gives the opposition politicians; Mousavi and co. "I told you so" rights. The demands of the Green Movement are very clear, a secular democracy, complete separation of church and state, and restoration of equal rights for all. I have yet to find anything from the protesters stating that they will accept any part of this regime anymore. The Ashura protests was just a prelude for what's to come. The situation now gives me the same eerie feeling one gets when you walk across the field at Gettysburg where Pickett's charge marched in on Angle. The grove of trees are in sight and the high water mark is near. I'd wager it will be in March for the Persian Nowruz celebrations. I will be with my family and our Haft-seen, and nervously staying tuned to Iran...
"With the planned burning of hijabs"
Mike
I had heard about some kind of Hijab "unveiling/disrobing" - but not burning. Certainly burning is more symbolic and more confrontational.
Barr
I certainly hope so.
hijab should be a choice as faeze hashemi said it sometimes ago.
rafsanjani hinting to the same thing in this video :
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-LrwJeUIhQc&feature=related
rough translation:
girl asks what hashemi thinks of fashion, color and type of clothing
hashemi replies by saying : it depends on the taste of the person and her family.
the man interrupts and asks : any kind of clothing is allowed?
hashemi replies by saying : as long as there is some clothing , "jokingly saying" no clothing is not allowed.