Wednesday
Jan202010
Iran Analysis: "Supreme Leader Warns Rafsanjani" --- The Sequels
Wednesday, January 20, 2010 at 13:54 
A valued EA source takes us through the follow-up to the Supreme Leader's Tuesday speech, which we read initially as a warning to Hashemi Rafansanjani and then as a possible warning to other conservative/principlist critics of the Ahmadinejad Government:1. Ali Larijani backs up Ayatollah Khamenei, but does he also strike at Government "extremists"?:
I know that the Supreme Leader does not like that a group of people under the title of defending the Supreme Leader oppress the people and become hardliners....We can not run the country by socialist economy and the economy (economy activities) should be handed over to people.
Iran Analysis: The Supreme Leader Warns Rafsanjani
The Latest from Iran: If Khamenei’s Other Shoe Drops (20 January)
2. Hojatoleslam Ruhollah Hosseinian, a fervent Ahmadinejad suppporter in Parliament, has gone for an all-out attack: he strikes at Hashemi Rafsanjani, Green movement leaders, the reformist Association of Combatant Clergy, and even Ali Larijani:
This person (Rafsanjani)...is in the government and one of the officials because of the mercy of the leadership, Today he is the lawyer of the reformists and defends them.
We wish that Mr. Hashemi stays loyal to the leader and the revolution, but unfortunately we have to say that he --- in the recent months ---- has been managing the opposition wave. For how long, do you want to speak ambiguously and call the rioters of Ashura "people"?
Majma’ Rohannioon Mobarez (the Association of Combatant Clergys) also issued a statement in support of the opposition protests. I had told one of the members of Association of Combatant Clergy that if I was a judge, I would consider this statement as being "war against God" (mohareb)....
One of the reason why I wanted to resign (as a member of Parliament) is the behaviour and approach of the Parlimant Speaker (Ali Larijani) because we wanted the dismissal of Mr. Mohtashamipour (head of the Palestine Defence Committee), however Mr. Larijani did not pay attention.
3. Hojatoleslam Ibrahimi, of the central council of the Association of Combatant Clergy Association and a member of Parlaiment, offers conciliation. He believes that the deep friendship between the supreme leader and Hashemi Rafsanjani cannot be denied and criticises those who are trying to cause division between them.
4. Alef Newspaper seems to echo Larijani, strongly criticising those who act inappropriately with the excuse of defending the Supreme Leader. It links an "extremism" which tried to assassinate reformist politician Saeed Hajjarian and attacked dormitories on the Tehran University with the crimes of Kahrizak Prison.
As the 40th Day memorial of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri approaches, Alef reminds readers that, even though the Supreme Leader issued a statement upon the demise of Montazeri, some extremists attacked Ayatollah house and broke the windows. Those extremists also treat other Revolution figures (e.g. Rafsanjani) the same way.
http://alef.ir/1388/content/view/62468
Reader Comments (59)
@ Larijani
Perhaps only experts understand, what L. really wants to say, but this translated part reads also in Persian as a warning to radical hardliners. At the beginning of his statement L. tries to convey the image of a concerned and caring SL, just to switch to the usual warnings against "rioters" some paragraphs later, followed by the message "the door is open to all those, who want to correct their behaviour."
Someone should give him a mirror ...
Imho both statements testify to their fear of the people's turnout on 22 Bahman celebrations. They still have not understood that killing and arresting Ashura mourners and dissidents, turning the country into barracks and tireless threats cannot change the people's determination to get rid of them.
The Khamenei warning is probably pointed at the conservative religious figures within the regime.
The way I see it:
There used to be a reformist and a conservative side to IR (prior to 12 June elections). Now as far as Khamenei is concerned, the reformists don’t count as part of the establishment, yet alone “elite”. The reason: almost all the reformists are in jail. The few (Khatami, Mousavi, Karoubi) who are not, are harassed, insulted, attacked and have people close to them killed and you don’t see Khamenei shedding too many tear for them. So he probably sees the reformists as having left the establishment or tricked by others to leave the establishment.
He obviously doesn’t count the people for much either (why else is he using terms like “khavas” and “nokhbegan” all the time?). To him people are those who come out and chant in his support, the rest are either enemy or tricked by the enemy. And those that come out in his support are doing as they are told and as they should. No reason to want them to say something clearly, as they have already carried out their duty quite well.
I think when he is asking the “khavas” (elite) to be more clear in their support for the regime (by which I think he means support for him) he is talking to the conservative clerics with acceptable religious credentials (Grand Ayatollahs and other high ranking clergy). These people have been benefiting from the IR system and SL’s generosity (in making payments to them or allowing their relatives to pursue profitable business) and kindness (by leaving them alone). And Khamenei is now saying that it is payback time (bit like the Godfather), you have benefited from me and the system and the system and I need you, so stop playing around that condemn the protestors. He knows that with strong backing for him and strong condemnation of the protestors he will have a better chance of using violence against the protest. At the moment the violence that has been used has cost IR and SL a lot (more than anything else). SL is dangerously close to looking like Yazid 1400 years ago. He wants the backing to gain a little religious legitimacy.
Rafsanjani is probably included in the “khavas” that Khamenei is talking about, but it is not about him. It is about all the conservative clerics. These people have either been quiet over the past 7-8 months or have made ambiguous statements (supporting the regime, followed by a but.... what about the people, or the violence is not good, etc). He seems to be telling them that the regime’s authority may be undermined on 22 Bahman if they do not step up now. And he is also threatening them and giving them until then to make their statements.
I think Khamenei knows that as time passes more of these “khavas” will desert him. There will come a time that if they were to take sides, most will end up lining up against Khamenei. He is calling in the favors while there is chance that he’ll get good reviews from the “khavas”.
Mind his recent speech does not do his authority much good. If he is the valiyeh faghih (in essence the most senior of all Islamic figures in the world) and if the protests are nothing more than a few misguided people making minor trouble and if the election is over (as he has claimed many times since June) then why does he need to recommendation from these lesser people?
Meanwhile, in the real world
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100120/wl_mideast_afp/iraneconomymoneyrial
Barry
Greeny
I love your analysis ! and what do you think ? will these "khavas" people accept to follow him ?? and then he will continue the massacre in the name of god ?? !! oh my god, I hope that your response is "no", they won't ! in the name of God they won't.
No 2. The Persian cannot insult Islam with Velayate Fagih-this is crypto-Persian nonsense-not even the minority of Arab Shiites believe in this concept that is steeped in Persian pre-Islamic Authoritarianism. Maybe No 4 is right-and that the Persians will no longer listen to their "Supreme leader" ?
Plastic Bertrand
You are new here - and I am trying to figure out just what your belief is?
It sounds to me like you are Arab - possibly Sunni?
You seem to me to use the word "Persian" as some kind of "insult"?
You appear to be anti-Iran Regime - but also anti-Iranian people??
I may be wrong in all my assessments so far - so please further enlighten us.
Barry ( who is neither Christian, Muslim, Persian, Arab, American, English or Eskimo)
Barry-I am only trying to focus on the reality-1. The Persian is facing payback-divine come uppance for all the mischiif it has caused on the Arab family since the 1970 s. I can list all the countries where it has tried like mosquitos to create disease-without success.2. Persian is not an insult-it is the name of the people. 3. I am not anti-regime -I do not care for any of them-but anti- Persian meddling in Arab affairs that do not concern them. 4. I am interested in the events that are occuring in the Persian heartland now for all the above.
ange paris,
I think they will try to suppress people by violent means. They really don’t have much of a choice. If you were to put yourself in SL’s place, what else would you be able to do?
For 20 years he has been saying that we have the best and most powerful regime in the world.
And for 8 months now he has been saying that election is over (so far Khamenei has spent 16% of the time of the tenth government saying that the election is over) and he is forced to repeat this over and over again.
And back on 29 Khordad he told the people that they will be dealt with severely and Mousavi will be blamed for it (we’re not even going to talk about the election fraud, the financial fraud of the past 20 years, the chain murders, 18 Tir, etc) .
Then his forces killed, raped, tortured and beat people and jailed thousands. And still he has not been able to stamp his authority.
And in the meantime he has burnt a lot of bridges.
He is unable to force his way forward and has left no room for himself to move back. He keeps on saying that he won’t budge, while he has nowhere to budge to.
In this process he has gathered around him people who only know how to use violence and insults. They have no other skills.
And he has pushed away others who might have been able to help him manage the situation through other means.
All this has created a situation that even a slight opening will be taken by the people and his own supporters as the beginning of capitulation (look at the way people are talking about the recent discussions on IRIB TV).
So he has no option but to try to use force and to threaten more violence.
I think there are problems with this plan:
Well violence has not stopped people from protesting and has in fact helped push more people from the conservative side of the regime to the reformist side and has caused a lot of people to become anti regime.
Who will be carrying out all the new violence? The police who seemed to have given up soon after the protest started and actually capitulated completely in parts of Tehran on Ashura? Sepah? With what forces? Basij? Which seems to have melted away in the recent months. Or the hired thugs?
Also back on 19 June when he threatened people with violence, he said that if anyone were to be hurt, it would be Mousavi’s fault. So he is scared of the consequences of using violence (he did the same thing after 18 Tir when he cried on TV and said that all students are like his own children and should not be harmed; then as now he was worried about taking responsibility for the violence we was ordering).
I am starting to think that he might be worried about the next Majles Khobregan meeting in March and probably worried that some Sepah commanders might be starting to think that it might be better if they pushed him aside and tried to make peace with the people themselves.
I don’t know if the khavas will say anything. But even if they do, the fact that he has had to almost beg them and at the same time threaten them to get the recoms, he will not be able use any of it to his advantage.
Plastic Bertrand
OK. There are some things that we can agree upon - I agree with you that the Islamic Republic of Iran is and has been a negative influence on the whole world since 1979. You will notice that I use the name of the State, and not the word "Persian". There are some Arab States that I believe are also responsible for some bad things - but if I were to name them, then I would tell you the name of the State and not just say "the Arabs"
I know people who have been to Egypt for holidays and they came back and commented greatly on the friendliness of the people - I also know some Iranian people who live in my country and they also are very nice people.
Probably most peoples in the world are quite nice - and some are very lucky to be able to choose their own Government to represent them and look after them. However the people of some other countries eg some Arab countries and Iran do not have this good fortune. It is hardly fair then to blame the people of those countries for the decisions of their Governments.
Also, the country of Iran are not on "Persians" - there are a number of minority ethnic groups living in Iran.
Barry
It would also help if the US became a democracy and not some scared third rate paraoid warmonger in irreversible decline. How about commenting on Islamophobia, racism and police state in AmeriKKKa. I think taking care of business closer to home is better than commenting on Iran a country which most of your readers could not even find on a map. How about China's rise as the only superpower ands holding $3 trillion in Forex reserves while the US warmongers spend $600,000 a minute on lost wars. How about 30-50 million unemployed and underemployed, how about 66 million lacking even basic health care, how about commenting on 10 million hungry children, 3 million home foreclosues. How about rising racism and anti-immigration violence. Didn't an incident take place in Binghamton just a few months ago. Spending so much time and wasted effort on Iran while US itself goes down the tubes is quite delusional. How about Zionist atrocities in Gaza including organ harvesting of children. Reality is very sad indeed.
Reality Check
Nobody said that the US is perfect! :)
Besides - we don't really need to try to get regime change in the US because they do that themselves. It was a big shock about that Republican Senator's victory in Massachusetts, wasn't it! Don't you just love Democracy! :)
No - it is much more of a challenge to get Regime change in Iran, and more worthwhile too.
Barry
I have to agree with you on that. Last night's Democratic defeat in Mass is good omen of regime change to come. Health reform is dead, the foreign policy is stuck in Bush mode and the world is moving on. I think Iran will reform from within and not without. Cheers Barry you are civilized guy unlike many who just get excited.
Barry ref comment 9 the persians have been meddling with the Arab World since the 1970s with Pahlavi. They are all the same and cannot be trusted with their delusional ideas. They should feed their people first beyond Teheran and Isfahan-they have over reached themselves and should stop meddling with the Arab Nation-but then maybe the Baaths need persuading by their fellow Arabs to put a halt to this Persian nonsense cloaked in superstition and apostate beliefs such as using portraits(forbidden in Islam) of Ali.
Plastic Bertrand
Thanks for your thoughts. I am afraid that most of what you have just said is beyond my experience and knowledge - so I cannot comment further, except that I think I hear Sunni/Shia differences/hatred.
For me, I despair at all institutionalized religions. Once upon a time, many many thousands of year ago, men/women looked to the skies and wondered what it was all about. Shortly after that, the Shamans/Medicine men/Priests/Mullahs got involved, realized how powerful and rich this basic instinct of humankind could make them, institutionalized some rituals and thereafter prostituted the original and natural spirituality of humankind.
A pox on all their houses!!! Christian - Islamic - etc!
Barry
Barry it is not sunni/shiite hatred-it is being fed up of Persian meddling . The shiites of the Arab world are Arab first-so this goes beyond religion. The Persians since Pahlavi have caused nothing but trouble in the Arabian Gulf,Palestine,Lebanon, Oman,Eastern provinces of the Kingdom, Yemen and Iraq. Time for them to crawl back to before Pahalvi's era when they did not bother us.
...I also forget Bahrain a,Qatar, and our Islands in the Gulf which they are still occupying.They need to feed their people before meddling.
I must have snoozed through the diem! WHEN DID THE PERSIAN GULF BECOME ARABIAN GULF?
Go to any Arab country and it will be called ARABIAN GULF-We are dealing with today s correct geographic name not on some PERSIAN notion form 2,500 years ago. There are more Arab countries that are in the gulf than Perisan(only 1 ).
I was not aware that you were now personally nominated as the Persian Gulf name changer. Besides your other ignorance, Persian Gulf, Arab petro-pimpdoms combined have a population less than GREATER TEHRAN. Most have large South Asian, European and other expat and labor communities. Even the corrupt puppet House of Saud has less than 6 million native Bedouins. Dubai alone has over 500,000 Iranians. I believe thou post too much crap for the naive and gulliable American audience. You are not one of my failing Arab students on a state subsidized "scholarship" are you?
[...] America, January 21 Iran Analysis: “Supreme Leader Warns Rafsanjani” — The Sequels Alef Newspaper seems to echo Larijani, strongly criticising those who act inappropriately with the [...]
Carpe Diem-At least we can afford to pay for expats. The Arab World combined is i excess of 150 million from Morrocco to Iraq. Dubai does NOT have 500,000 Persian residents more like 300,00 and without the re-export due to your inefficient economy-bring nothing but trouble for the Emirates-drugs,smuggling and Prostitution-the jails are full of Iranians. With any luck Abu Dhabi will try and impose far less leinent policy towards Persians residet or visiting Dubai. So before your feeble attempt and insulting my bretherns in the Gulf-who cares about Teheran ! Dirty,Polluted,Over Populated,miserable and ugly-the ENTIRE ARAB POPULATION EXCEEDS BY A VAST MARGIN OF ALMOST 3-1 OVER THE PERSIANS.So thanks to our prestige,clout,international standing it is and will remain the ARABIAN GULF. If you were a "teacher" I feel that I would have to guide you to the harsh reality instead of your cooked up, out of touch histronics about all things Persian.
Looks like Mr. Bertrand here has grown some nazi-like hate feelings. Blaming all the arab problems on the Iranian people as an excuse to belittle them and call them names.
"So thanks to our prestige,clout,international standing it is and will remain the ARABIAN GULF."
So just because there's more of you, doesn't mean it has to be named after you. You yourself invalidated your earlier point with this previous comment. There may be more arab countries on the gulf, but Iran has the largest amount of coastline on the gulf. That's more reason to name it after a country.
I am sorry but you are a total failure and a drama queen to boot. The "Arab world" hates the Khaleeji pimps who are lazy, corrupt and uneducated like yourself. They hire foreighers to do all the work. The Pakistanis even fly the junk jets the Al-Nahyan pimps have bought from the US. They import Asian children as camel jockeys and abuse the foreign workers. Without US support the rest of the abused Arabs, Egyptians, Palestinians, Lebanese etc would throw these corrupt Persian Gulf pimpdoms into the sea. The "150 million Arabs" you are talking about (the real number is over 300 million as Egypt alone is 85 million, and then Algeria etc) hate each other. What have the Arabs done for the Palestinians as the Zionists kill them in Gaza everyday. You are no Arab youself and just an idiotic imposter trying to get attention without knowing even basic facts. Now go enrol in a Mid-East for dummies class.
OH dear - look what we have started!!! :)
Anyway, you all probably didn't notice - but a few days ago, I renamed the Gulf as the US 5th Fleet Gulf. I named it after the most powerful force in the region.
Google hasn't gotten around to changing the name on their maps yet. :)
Barry
Thank you for putting him/her in his/her place Carpe Diem.
This thread is for Iranians abroad who are concerned about the state of their nation, we really don't care for nor have the time to deal with pointless bickering with someone who is no better than a "shitdisturber".