Tuesday
Mar022010
Iran Analysis: The Mousavi Strategy "We Are Still Standing"
Tuesday, March 2, 2010 at 7:08 
My initial reaction, on reading the full text of Mir Hossein Mousavi's Saturday interview on the immediate past and immediate future of the Green Movement, was feeling let down. Mousavi had offered a lengthy dissection of the regime's "success" on 22 Bahman (11 February), mobilising the rally in Azadi Square and blocking any mass Green display. He had stated his determination, shared by others, to "express our emotions, aspirations, and concern as a nation".Mousavi had declared, "The Green Movement has stood firm in its civil demands. The more people’s awareness of their rights increases, the bigger will be the force behind those demands."
Yes, I thought, but what would those demands be beyond the general assertion of freedom, justice, and rights? What endpoint for this people's force? In the end, was Mousavi's "Being green is a matter of behavior and morals" an evasion rather than a confrontation of the next phase of the post-election crisis?
Others shared this perception. Borzou Daragahi, one of the sharpest observers of the Iran situation, wrote over the weekend that not only Mousavi but Karroubi offered no measures for the way forward. Daragahi repeated this when he put forth Mohammad Khatami's Monday statement, "We should not retreat from our demands." Mahmood Delkhasteh writes in The Huffington Post of the "schizophrenic Green Movement".
But as Sunday gave way to Monday and then Tuesday, I looked back over the Mousavi statement and the Khatami declaration and, before them, Mehdi Karroubi's interviews with his website and with an Italian newspapers. I read them as I watched the regime scramble, perhaps coherently, perhaps not, between prisoner releases, suspension of newspapers, and propaganda.
And I realised I was very wrong.
My mistake, which I think is common, was to think in terms of a "grand strategy". Mousavi would lay out the Green Path not just as one of hope but as a well-marked political landscape on the future of the Supreme Leader, the institutions in the Islamic Republic, and indeed the Republic itself. He would offer a new set of tactics to replace the attempts at mobilisation on national holidays --- the opposition would not hijack the regime's occasions but come up with those which were solely Green. Mousavi's would liberate the detainees, free the press, silence the purveyors of untruths, remove Ahmadinejad and his cronies, and show Khameini that he was not above the Iranian system but one part of it.
My mistake was to forget that sometimes the way forward is just to ensure someone sees you are still standing.
On 1 January, Mousavi had put out a 5-point programme which is as close as he has come to a "grand strategy": Government accountability, free press, freed political prisoners, free assembly, new election laws. If the Government could not deliver this, it would be replaced. If the Supreme Leader could not assure this, his position would be questioned.
But conditions change, events intervene. 22 Bahman was a major disappointment for those in the opposition who thought it would mark the end --- maybe not on that day but soon, very soon --- of the regime. The Green movement had been present on that day but, with the confusion in tactics and facing the massed forces of the State, it had not been seen.
So Mousavi, while he referred to his 1 January in his interview, had more immediate tasks. He first took apart the idea of a "natural", overwhelming support for the regime, represented by the 22 Bahman turnout: these were "engineered rallies".
Where on the day, beyond Tehran, was the supposed effusive endorsement of the Government? Where, in the following three weeks, has that support been? Where, once the mobilisation for a few hours is over, is the "63%" that supposedly re-elected President Ahmadinejad last June?
Mousavi's harder job, however, was to assess his own camp, to find the rays of light amidst the "difficult conditions" and "damage" inflicted by the regime through detentions, violence, suppression, and abuse of laws? Re-presenting the tablets of his five points on 1 January would only bring the response: yes, and how exactly is this to occur?
So Mousavi's effort was not to elucidate the "civil demands", not at this moment, but to give the assurance that the the demands would continue to be made. Shut down the Green Movement's newspapers and journals, and we will work through social media. Berate us with propaganda, but we will persist in our "spread of awareness". Threaten us, jail us, bribe us with release for our silence, but we will not disappear.
And that is not just Mousavi's statement. It was Karroubi's last week, and Khatami's yesterday. Away from the headlines offered by those men, it is the message every hour of every day from those who continue to get word out that matters are not settled inside Iran.
So Mousavi and Karroubi made specific if not-so-limited demands to represent that persistence. You have crushed us? Then give us our freedom of assembly, since we are not that many. You have defeated us? Then give us a referendum on your supposedly respected institutions, let's say, the Guardian Council.
In his interview, Mousavi placed the key sentence, "If this crisis is not resolved, the legitimacy of the ruling establishment will plummet even faster."
At some point, having assured its survival, the opposition will need to make its resolutions over a strategy that goes beyond "We are still standing." But the lack of resolution at this moment and for the foreseeable future, is not "victory" for the regime. To the contrary, it is testimony that legitimacy has not been secured.
Just because the end of the path is not seen, does not mean that it has been obliterated....
Reader Comments (16)
Impressive work. Not only did you agree to disagree with your first reactions on Mousavi's statements - which is unbelievably rare in the journo-scene. But you also provided well-thought reasons to do so. Thanks for your constantly high quality contributions.
Exactly, AsdollahMirza (#1). Enduring America has turned out to be a flagship of incisive logic, rare integrity and unusual insight. So, it's quite easy to agree with your statement 100%.
Again, Enduring America, thank you for your efforts. You make all the difference when it comes to covering Iran.
Ta se nasheh, bazi nasheh (All good things go by threes)
Joining Asdollah Mirza (moment!) and Observer, I would like to thank Enduring America for daily updated analyses of Iran news, press watch, in-depths comments, and supporting the Greens with a critical eye ...
ba sepas faravan
Arshama
Scott,
As always, thank you for your thoughts.
The shortcoming I see with Mousavi is not only his inability to sketch a blueprint or a roadmap for achieving goals but it is his lack of vision. I sense certain indecisiveness, certain laziness or perhaps risk averseness that stops him from demanding the platform people have afforded him. His name has become a battle cry for freedom yet he is tangled up in the past, the past people are prepared to forgo. He seems unwilling or unable to wipe the fog of his own elusion from his goggle and truly see the people. I see the same with Karroubi and Khatami.
People have started wondering and you hear the whisper and doubt that could be followed by people’s apathy and consequently the demise of Green Movement. Mousavi’s and Karroubi’s are only viable if people continue to stand with them and for that they need to truly hear people, envision beyond today and truly lead. They should stop fearing the regime they should fear losing people.
I agree. Considering the level of support he has had since the election, Mousavi's tactics have been mind-bogglingly modest. He is acting like an isolated dissident instead of realizing that millions of people have been willing to risk their lives under his leadership.
Agree with all the comments above. Your humility is appreciated as is you keen obervations and ability to analyse this situation while considering multiple views while avoiding the tunnel vision that is so rampant in western media.
@Megan -
Interesting comments..thank you for sharing. While I do see your point on lack of vision, I, like Scott mentioned above, am waiting for the "leaders" to move past the strategic and rhetorical discussion into tactical language..e.g. not the what, but the how. Perhaps, it is a matter of time, however, my concern is this is the piece of his leadership profile that may be missing. I agree as Scott also points out it is important to make the position known..this has been affirmed time and again but it is time to move into action. Visions are great to have, it sets the overall tone for the group, organization, etc however without a plan to execute, we are left with nothing but words and ideas.
Regards,
very good article. it is VERY important to realize this....to be able to take a step back and look at things objectively. We, the greens, shouldn't be so quick to feel down or let down (although this is very natural) we must look at the long-run....cause that's how we will be successful and how we can ensure the health and purity of the movement.
Corrected copy of post at 11: 49
Scott,
As always, thank you for your thoughts.
The shortcoming I see with Mousavi is not only his inability to sketch a blueprint or a roadmap for achieving goals but it is his lack of vision. I sense certain indecisiveness, certain laziness or perhaps risk averseness that stops him from demanding the platform people have afforded him. His name has become a battle cry for freedom yet he is tangled up in the past, the past people are prepared to forgo. He seems unwilling or unable to wipe the fog of his own elusion from his goggle and truly see the people. I see the same with Karroubi and Khatami.
People have started wondering and you hear the whisper and doubt that could be followed by people’s apathy and consequently the demise of Green Movement. Mousavi and Karroubi are only viable if people continue to stand with them and for that they need to truly hear people, envision beyond today and truly lead. They should stop fearing the regime they should fear losing people.
Bijan,
I agree that vision without concrete steps in realizing it is futile. I, however, believe before you chart a map (tactical plan), you must have a clear destination (the goal) insight. You also must envision all the road blocks (regime, events beyond your control, etc.) and assess your assets (people, key players, events, etc.) to devise a strategy how to combat and maneuver around obstacles. And more importantly you must dare to dream big and be able to inspire others to do the same. You must be motivated and believe in yourself that you have the courage to endure and instill that in your followers. You must be alert, flexible, and prepared for unexpected. A good leader is a person who not only sees the future before others (vision) but is one who inspires and motivates others to see what he/she sees and follow him/her.
I see no such qualities in any of the people, reformists or otherwise, we have come to know as leader since June 2009. They impress me as master of obvious; they repeat what people already know and that is how undemocratic the current system is. They impress me as followers not leaders. They impress me as out of touch with time and the evolving Iranian society. I find them acting like preachers, grandfathers out of touch with their Blackberry, iTunes, Rapping, and Tweeting grandchildren. I find them as hinder in the movement when over and over they admonish people not to nullify their 1979 revolution. I do not see any of the so-called leaders equipped or prepared for a massive movement we have come to know as Green Pro-democracy Movement. Furthermore, these guys are weak politically and by that I mean they have been unable to muster any sizeable locality in IRG or Basiji and militia organizations even though they were all key players in IR political system. That tells me they will not last at the top too long even if they get there.
My sense is that all reformist leaders were looking for was a seat at the table of power. They had no clue they were about to ignite a dormant volcano. Neither these guys nor the regime was expecting or prepared for a volcanic eruption and that is why they remain clueless how to benefit from it or contain it.
Bijan, I am critical of those in the front line for their inability to capitalize and seal the deal when the time was right (June 12- June 20) and when enemy (regime) was unprepared. I am critical of them because they were weak and clueless. I am critical because if the mass killing of the 80’s is repeated and this criminal regime might just do that, Iranians will retreat as they have done several times in the past 31 years and that would have devastating consequences for our countrymen and women, for our homeland, for the region and for the world as a whole. All and all I am not optimistic about a quick and peaceful fix to current political and economical crises in Iran.
I meant to say:
All and all I am not optimistic about a quick and peaceful fix to current political and economical crises in Iran in the absence of strong and effective leader.
I wonder about the appropriateness of asking Mousavi, Karroubi and Khatami to lay out specific strategies. Maybe all Mousavi should be doing is providing a figurehead that people can unite around. Then various strategies can be tried and can fail without him taking any blame. Especially in a conflict that "is a marathon, not a sprint", expected to go through many rounds, isn't it better to stand firm on a consistent and simple message without elaborating with details that would only raise divisions?
bravo. well said.
Well done. It is persistance/continuation of a movement which will bear fruit. Obviously, the people goals and aspirations in their very fundamental form must be defined and conveyed constantly. The leaders emerge base on the firmness exhibieted while the movement is progressing. I hope Mr. Mousavi, Karroubi, and Khatami insist on such a strategy/principle, in particular with Mr. Khatami's past experience and lessons learned.
I'm a little confused. Why does everyone here assume that Mousavi wants real change, or has an incentive to lay out a roadmap of "action"? Anyone consider that he is intentionally treading water here - intentionally keeping social forces paddling around in circles, waiting for their energies to dissipate, for the resistance ultimately to drown out at sea?
Recall who chose him as an acceptable candidate to run for office. I won't discuss his contributions to the slaughtered thousands of this regime.
It was obvious by the end of June 2009 that Mousavi's role was to collect, and then subdue, the energies of the people. He has consistently pursued this strategy since the people took to the streets. His current "failure" to provide any plan of action is not a failure at all, but represents the success of the regime's strategy.
He was the one who called the people to the streets on 22 Bahman, but told them to be present "silently." And afterwards everyone is wondering why everyone was so quiet on the day. Let's ask Mousavi.
Maria,
I do not, please see my comments above. I do not trust Mousavi or any other person who has served in this regime. I do not understand why Iranians in Iran still chant Mousavi's name.