The Latest from Iran (5 March): Re-aligning

2030 GMT: Academic Special. We've posted an entry noting how Iran's regime and America's self-proclaimed "Truthful Encyclopedia", Conservapedia, have allied against deviant professors.

NEW University Special: Iran & Conservapedia Ally Against Dangerous Professors
Death, Confusion, and Clerics in Iran: The Case of Mohammad Amin Valian
Iran Film Special: Watching Shrek in Tehran
The Latest from Iran (4 March): A Death Penalty Mystery

2015 GMT: Karroubi Watch. Iranian authorities have prevented the son of Mehdi Karroubi, Professor Mohammad Taghi Karroubi, from flying to Britain. Mohammad Karroubi's passport was seized at the airport.

Mehdi Karroubi's website, Saham News, reported, "[Mohammad Karroubi] was planning to fly to London for university related work, including the re-publication of his book 'Just or Unjust War?' and the completion of another book related to international law."


1915 GMT: The Valian "Mohareb" Case. The US Government, shifting its attention from the nuclear issue, has called on Iran to release Mohammad Amin Valian, allegedly condemned to death for protests between July and December: "We find this disproportionate punishment deplorable and urge his immediate release. If the Iranian government wants the respect of the international community, it must respect the fundamental freedoms of its people."

1905 GMT: Smoke Screen. In a letter to "Western" media, the editors of six Iranian websites associated with "principlist" politicians have complained about the presentation of post-election events, accusing the Western outlets of distorting events in Iran and acting “unprofessionally.”

The operators of Alef, Tabnak, Jahan, Khabar Online, Farda, and Hamshahri Online websites, asking the Western journalists to use “professional conscience" to review events, focus on the case of Neda Agha-Soltan, killed by a Basiji gunman:

Since the Iranian government was struggling to calm the public and the opposition sought to whip up excitement, in your opinion which side could expect to gain from murdering Neda?....How are the inconsistencies in remarks made by Arash Hejazi in the video clip that is available and the BBC interview where he provides details justifiable? And as a more general question, how credible is the story when an assassination on a quiet street prompts passersby to move closer to film the victim up close instead of fleeing the scene? Did you consider such skepticism before you publicized the story? Was your conduct professional?

The letter continues with the report of the rape and murder of Taraneh Mousavi, a claim which proved to be unsubstantied, accuse Western media of reporting on the news by resorting to an “obscure blog.”

1855 GMT: The Clerical Challenge (cont.).  Remember Mr Verde's column yesterday on how the Supreme Leader and the regime may have let themselves in for some religious trouble over the alleged death sentence handed out to 20-year-old Mohammad Amin Valian as "mohareb" (warrior against God)?

Well, Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani has joined Ayatollah Sane'i in criticism of the "justice" in the Valian case: "Mohareb are those who attack people with arms and shed their blood, not protesters."

1630 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Reports claim that the head of Mir-Hossein Mousavi’s presidential campaign in Shahinshahr in Isfahan Province has been in prison since 11 February.

Prominent reformist Behzad Nabavi was released for five days on Wednesday night.

The sentence for journalist and economist Saeed Leylaz has been reduced to three years.

1500 GMT: Well, Here's a Surprise. The pro-Larijani Khabar Online prints a sustained attack on the foreign policy of the Ahmadinejad Government, notably its pursuit of Iran's nuclear case.

1455 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Rah-e-Sabz continues to press the line that Hashemi Rafsanjani is keeping his distance from the Government. The website claims that Rafsanjani, his ally Hassan Rouhani, and former Presidential candidate Ali Akbar Nategh Nouri are staying away from meetings of the Combatant Clergy Association because of their differences with the group.

1445 GMT: Another Warning to Mousavi. Iran's Prosecutor-General Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie has attacked Mir Hossein Mousavi: If a Government cannot pursue someone because of his attachments [Note: Attachments to whom or what?], that is a deviation. People expect Mousavi's public punishment.

0740 GMT: Yesterday's Top Statement. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced:

Our atomic bombs are our youth and athletic heroes. A nation that possesses determination, intellect, culture and civilization doesn't need to make atomic bombs. Those who suffer from inferiority complex and lack a historical background and civilization are the ones that claim they need atomic bombs.

0725 GMT: Washington Endorses A Nuclear Deal? Perhaps the most significant Iran-related signal that will be missed today....

US Deputy Secretary of State Jim Steinberg met Japanese Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada yesterday on the Iran issue. Steinberg's media statement was bland:

Japan plays a very critical role on this question. It's a leader and a very strong voice in supporting a non-proliferation regime with a very strong commitment to dealing with the challenge of nuclear weapons.

But for those who can de-code diplomatic statements, the Deputy Secretary offered an important signal: "(Japan) is very influential with Iranians and can have a very big impact....(I am) grateful for the strong statements they made during a recent visit by Iranian officials here."

The significance is missed by Agence France Presse, which reports the statement. That "visit by Iranian officials" was the occasion for Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani to embrace a "third-party" deal in which Japan would enrich Iran's uranium stock to 20 percent.

So now what do you think Steinberg was discussing with Foreign Minister Okada?

0640 GMT: The Sanctions Dance. Outside Iran, a lot of attention will be expended on the continuing discussion of tougher sanctions on Tehran. Brazil's pointed rejection, made during US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's visit, has checked the momentum --- whipped up in the media --- for an American resolution in the UN Security Council. The Council on Foreign Relations has a useful analysis.

Clinton is now talking about "months", rather than "weeks", for a US initiative. That may not be a bad thing for Obama, who reportedly is sceptical of the impact of further economic measures, but the battle will now move to the US Congress, which continues to press for sweeping rather than gradual sanctions.

0625 GMT: And so the end of another week in Iran. Beyond the bluster of the regime, most of the daily news has concerned political prisoners: some released, usually on bail and commanded to silence or face a return to jail, others swept up and detained.  A case we had not noted before: Radio Farda reports that student Ali Kanturi has been sentenced to 15 years for "abduction" and "extortion".

The regime's heavy hand, despite all the tensions and confusions within the Government, does seem to have quelled public protest. Perhaps most notable is that there do not appear to be the university demonstrations that marked the period between 13 Aban (4 November) and Ashura (27 December). With the regime also continues to try and choke off the opposition media, the public face of resistance now comes primarily through the statements and interviews of figures like Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi.

Of course, that does not mean that resistance has been quelled. It is more a case that, in this period between 22 Bahman and the Iranian New Year, it lies smoldering. Another crisis or mis-step by the Government could bring it to the fore; more likely, however, is that the challenge to President Ahmadinejad and, indeed, to the Iranian system will come through erosion.
Not an erosion of legitimacy --- the point that should not be forgotten is that legitimacy has been beyond this Government for many Iranians --- but an erosion of authority as the economy stumbles and there is no visible sign of the "unity" that the regime trumpets again and again in its pronouncements.

That is why the curious "death penalty" case of student Mohammad Amin Valian raises interest. As the affair unfolds, with no confirmation that the Ashura protester has actually been condemned to die, the disquiet and now open opposition of clerics indicates that the Government will continue to face problems --- and the Supreme Leader will be pressured --- over the notion of "justice".

Comments

[Catherine]

Things may be quieting down also just because the Nowruz holidays are here:
Check out these photos of holiday shopping
http://www.payvand.com/news/10/mar/1035.html

[Catherine]

More re-aligning:

Rafsanjani Makes First Public Appearance with Ahmadinejad
High-ranking Iranian officials and a number of foreign diplomats met with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei March 4 in a ceremony held to celebrate the birth of Prophet Mohammad. For the first time since the disputed June 12 election, both Ayatollah Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani, the chairman of the Expediency Council, and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad appeared under one roof.
http://www.insideiran.org/media-analysis/rafsanjani-makes-first-public-appearance-with-ahmadinejad-to-demonstrate-renewed-political-power/

[Bill]

Catherine,

I would have loved to have been a fly on the wall when Ahmandinejad and Rafs were togehter. I bet you could have seen sparks fly when they got near each other!!

Thx
Bill

[Catherine]

Or wiffed the subtle stench of BS..... :-)

[Catherine]

This is totally unrelated to anything in the thread so far, but may be of interest: the continuing story of how/if Nokia helped Iranian authorities to hunt down protesters.

How Nokia helped Iran "persecute and arrest" dissidents

Journalist Hanna Nikkanen quotes Nokia's Lauri Kivinen saying that "there's been this perception internationally that we've supplied them [Iran] with internet surveillance equipment, but this is not true. The statement was made on February 20, 2010, but Nikkanen obtained leaked manuals to the equipment in question and concluded, " The surveillance made possible by the Nokia Lawful Interception Gateway (LIG) extends to mobile internet usage. Either Kivinen was lying or his knowledge of his company's core competence field isn't quite adequate."

Do the deals made in Espoo lead directly to arrests in Tehran?

http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/news/2010/03/how-nokia-helped-iran-persecute-and-arrest-dissidents.ars?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss

[WitteKr]

@Catherine no. 2.
MikVerbrugge (http://mikverbrugge.tumblr.com/) has an interesting analysis of what happened yesterday with Rafsanjani. "Adding up these points he made yesterday, and his speech at Khomeini Shrine while sitting on Khamenei’s right side, Ahmadinejad & Sepah’s heads who have focused most of their efforts in trying to exclude Rafsanjani from Khamenei’s court & downplay his role within the Regime, must be alarmed. Rafsanjani’s role & responsibilities have grown beyond defending his own interests or the Traditionalist Conservatives’. Most agree that if AN manages to sideline Rafsanjani, hell will break loose. Without Rafsanjani’s influence & counteractions, there would be nothing that could stop Coup from “cleansing” Iran.
(...)
But, as Rafsanjani says : There’s only one man who can pave the road out of the crisis & that is Khamenei himself. He is very much firm on his statement that, not only crisis isn’t over, but if something isn’t done soon, it will bring down the regime. His solution to the crisis has remained same as stated in his last Friday Prayer sermon.
Rafsanjani is of the opinion that it’s better to keep Khamenei close at hand & disallow the crazies to keep him away. Whenever Rafsanjani & Khamenei get closer things loosen up a little & some sort of progress is achieved. Whenever Rafsanjani distances himself, Khamenei becomes a simple tool of Hojjatieh."

Hojjatieh being the operative word: it struck me that there are different translations of Mousavi's latest declaration. In one translation he speaks of this present government being a 'clique', in another 'a cult' - referring to Hojjatieh?.

My contacts in Iran tell me Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei is of much greater importance then the President himself now. Mashaei, they say, is the ultimate leader behind the scenes. And according to some he is very much into Hojjatieh (from Wikipedia: "an underground messianic sect which hopes to quicken the coming of the apocalypse in order to hasten the return of the Mahdi, the prophesied future redeemer of Islam.")

[WitteKr]

06.40 The Sanctions Dance.
Since Scott is not here to guide us, have a look at the recommendable Op-Ed of Roger Cohen in today's New York Times:
"Sanctions will not alter Iran’s policy, and will further enrich the Revolutionary Guards who control sanction-circumventing channels from Dubai, but they will buy some time for further probing of engagement.
I’m told that’s how Obama, who remains intellectually committed to the idea of an Iran breakthrough, views them: a necessity in the light of Congressional and Israeli pressure, but not a likely means to get sanctions-inured Iran to change course.
It’s interesting that Clinton is now talking of sanctions in the “next several months” rather than 30 to 60 days. That’s encouraging. New sanctions, to which China will pay no more than lip service, equal old failure."

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/05/opinion/05iht-edcohen.html

[WitteKr]

06.40 GMT: The Sanctions Dance
Since Scott is not here to guide us, this is what Roger Cohen writes in his Op-Ed in todays New York Times:
"Sanctions will not alter Iran’s policy, and will further enrich the Revolutionary Guards who control sanction-circumventing channels from Dubai, but they will buy some time for further probing of engagement.
I’m told that’s how Obama, who remains intellectually committed to the idea of an Iran breakthrough, views them: a necessity in the light of Congressional and Israeli pressure, but not a likely means to get sanctions-inured Iran to change course.
It’s interesting that Clinton is now talking of sanctions in the “next several months” rather than 30 to 60 days. That’s encouraging. New sanctions, to which China will pay no more than lip service, equal old failure.Sanctions will not alter Iran’s policy, and will further enrich the Revolutionary Guards who control sanction-circumventing channels from Dubai, but they will buy some time for further probing of engagement."

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/05/opinion/05iht-edcohen.html

[WitteKr]

06.40 GMT: The Sanctions Dance...

Since Scott is not here to guide us, have a look at Roger Cohens' Op-Ed in today's New York Times:

Sanctions will not alter Iran’s policy, and will further enrich the Revolutionary Guards who control sanction-circumventing channels from Dubai, but they will buy some time for further probing of engagement.
I’m told that’s how Obama, who remains intellectually committed to the idea of an Iran breakthrough, views them: a necessity in the light of Congressional and Israeli pressure, but not a likely means to get sanctions-inured Iran to change course.
It’s interesting that Clinton is now talking of sanctions in the “next several months” rather than 30 to 60 days. That’s encouraging. New sanctions, to which China will pay no more than lip service, equal old failure.Sanctions will not alter Iran’s policy, and will further enrich the Revolutionary Guards who control sanction-circumventing channels from Dubai, but they will buy some time for further probing of engagement.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/05/opinion/05iht-edcohen.html

[ange paris]

Wittekr
Thank you for your comment and explaination; it's sais in mikverbrugge infos that " Rafsanjani, Rohani & Rezaei are pushing for urgent adoption of reforms by Majlis to change laws before next round of elections "; it means that iranian people have to put up with "AN" & co until next elections ?? it's too hard to believe that it would be possible after what has happened in the country ! could you give me your opinion please , thank you .

[WitteKr]

Dear Angel from Paris, I wish I knew how to answer you...

Maybe we shouldn't take the proposals too seriously, in the sense that they will actually be accepted by the SL. That depends on the outcome of the struggle between the cult government, the clerics (no matter their political views) and the opposition movement.
I cannot imagine AN will be able to move on if these proposals would be accepted: that in itself would be a revolution!

The most important fact - I think - is that these proposals were made at all.

[WitteKr]

On another note...
06.40 GMT: The Sanctions Dance...

Since Scott is not here to guide us, have a look at Roger Cohens' Op-Ed in today's New York Times:

Sanctions will not alter Iran’s policy, and will further enrich the Revolutionary Guards who control sanction-circumventing channels from Dubai, but they will buy some time for further probing of engagement.
I’m told that’s how Obama, who remains intellectually committed to the idea of an Iran breakthrough, views them: a necessity in the light of Congressional and Israeli pressure, but not a likely means to get sanctions-inured Iran to change course.
It’s interesting that Clinton is now talking of sanctions in the “next several months” rather than 30 to 60 days. That’s encouraging. New sanctions, to which China will pay no more than lip service, equal old failure.Sanctions will not alter Iran’s policy, and will further enrich the Revolutionary Guards who control sanction-circumventing channels from Dubai, but they will buy some time for further probing of engagement.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/05/opinion/05iht-edcohen.html

[WitteKr]

Sorry for all my postings on the Sanctions Dance... I tried to post it several times, but it didn't show. Until now :-)
Could someone please remove them? And this one as well?
Thanks!

[ange paris]

Thank you WitteKr.

[Bijan]

For Scott when he returns, other EA staff monitoring the site or any readers of todays posts, am curious to know thoughts on this article from Tehran Bureua (via Pedestrian):

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/2010/03/different-shades-of-green.html

Regards,

[Thomas]

Interesting write-up on Qods Force commander Qassem Suleimani.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/234493

It says he was for Mousavi.

[Thomas]

Regarding the Hojjatieh, our friends in Iran mentioned last fall the Mesbah-Yazdi is the cult's leader.

By the way, anyone else notice they haven't posted here since 22 Bahman?

[Scott Lucas]

Bijan,

I have to be honest --- this Tehran Bureau piece made me very uncomfortable. It felt more like a settling of scores amongst expatriate Iranians after the disappointment of 22 Bahman than a constructive examination of the issues.

I appreciate that the author is also motivated by a dislike of sanctions as a strategy, but the article would have been far more productive, in my opinion, if it had led with this approach rather than the attacks on others who oppose the Iranian regime.

"Iranian people are fully capable of advancing their own democratic cause." Absolutely --- so why deflect from that fundamental tenet with this intellectual bun-fight?

S.

[Pedestrian]

Scott, I respectfully disagree. Sahimi was stating what a lot of us have been screaming/thinking in the past few months. 22 Bahman was when the proverbial shit hit the fan, but it wasn't any defining moment besides that.

It's quite ironic, but the heavier and harder the crackdown on journalists and news sources in Iran, the more powerful the VOA has become. Sometimes, it ends up as the ONLY source of news especially when the internet too is dysfunctional. Through it, Sazegara has been able to gather an unprecedented audience, and it's very important that the audience at least know where his funding comes from and what his agenda is.

Until these figures are raising awareness in their own societies and working to disseminate information inside Iran, that's a different story. But when they are giving STRATEGY and tactics, especially when they are the only sources heard in Iran ... that's a great dilemma. Not to mention that the position of some of these folks is actually hurting the movement inside Iran. That's one of the first things Somayeh Tohidlou blogged about when she was released from prison.

I think as time progresses and we move farther away from the election, some lines are being drawn: in this case between those who oppose any sort of sanction or military intervention, or even external support ... and those who are for any number of those things. These are divides and frictions which are going to grow and expand and become apparent as time goes on.

[pessimist]

I've just read that article and it too made me feel unconfortable. I found I agreed with both sides in the comments. In fact there are quite a lot of twists and turns in the whole issue. One thing I thought was that maybe folks should lighten up about it (if it wasn't such a serious issue..) in that it is all only free speech, and individuals practising it.

What pedestrian says is also a 'slap in the face' of the regime, because if they had more free speech they wouldn't just have VOA.

What's the saying ? What goes round comes around ? Or something like that.

[pessimist]

re : Qassem Suleimani.

Shudder, shudder, and he preferred Moussavi ? What does that say ?
What would be nice to know is exactly what he has organized since June in Iran.

A question though, to what extent do Iraqis really like the idea of Iran invading them 'softly' ? Even Shias ? Will this really happen ?

[Scott Lucas]

Pedestrian,

Thank you very much for this comment.

Please don't get me wrong --- the points you have made here on the tensions and weaknesses of external actors as the prime source for strategy and tactics are vital. If the Tehran Bureau author (whose opinions I usually find constructive) had focused on this in his article, I think his comments would have been a valuable contribution. However, the personalised nature of his approach, first picking out a series of individuals, turned this into a bit of chest-poking rather than the necessary critique.

S.

[M. Ali]

The letter from the iranian papers made alot of good points

[ange paris]

Pedestrian
I don't like what you say,and it's because of this kind of comment that Regime says " they are smoking in the kitchen" laughing; why, when everything is OK, people claim victory and when something is wrong, they make a scene shouting " it's the fault of anybody, except us obviousely" ! it was the fault of nobody and only, we were not lucky, that's all . If VOA is the only tool that iranians have to be up to date et you can't communicate easily inside the country, you have to send your ideas and explain them so that they spread the informations inside the country; don't worry we need this kind of experience to become stronger and stronger day after day; believe in our aim because it's not possible not to win; this Regime is doomed to failure from internal and external pont of vue;
We have to keep our Solidarity and Unity and swallow defeats in a short time so that our brains work in positif path; keep cool my friend , Allah Akar .

[Publicola]

an assessment:
Having followed Pedestrian's blog (sidewalklyrics) for quite a while,
I have found that Pedestrian is one of the politically most mature and a highly rational, highly moderate and even one of the most friendly bloggers on our planet earth, a blogger, whose voice commentators are/would be wise to listen to.
http://www.sidewalklyrics.com/

Having said that, I of course absolute agree with "Enduring America" that in general differing views should openly be discussed!