Friday
Jun112010
Iran Analysis: The Green Movement and The Lesson of 51 Pegasi B (Shahryar)
Friday, June 11, 2010 at 12:00 
As June 12 arrives, there has been a growing sense of hopefulness among activists and sympathizers that the Green Movement in Iran might hold a protest to commemorate last year’s elections. At the same time, however, there’s a sense of fear and anxiety that this might not happen --- and the odds are this might be the case. There are many reasons for this, but mainly, there is no overwhelming campaign being led by the Green Movement to put millions or even thousands in Tehran’s streets.If this is indeed the case and there is no protest, many will take this as a sign that the Green Movement has dissipated. It will also dishearten activists abroad --- one recently went as far as to tell me that this might be the end. This is mostly because out here in the West, the only indication to most observers that Iran is struggling is people on the streets, chanting slogans.
Iran Reaction: Mysteries Beyond the Mousavi-Karroubi Statement
Iran Feature: Why the Green Movement is Important (Dissected News)
Thanks to the media blockade by the Iranian government --- which of course continues to shout daily that the uprising has been quelled and it has no supporters --- we already have little means to figure out what the Green Movement is doing in Iran. In such circumstances, it is only natural to get disheartened and think that the movement is dead, simply because we can’t directly see it.
"51 Pegasi b", however, has a thing or two to teach us about that.
Almost 50 light years away from our solar system, 51 Pegasi b --- or Bellerophon as it is known affectionately by astronomers --- is a planet, circling a lonely star in the constellation Pegasus. While the star is barely visible with the naked eye,our extremely large telescopes can take pictures of it, magnifying its size. However, the luminosity of the star is so great that anything else near it is almost completely washed out by its shine.
Yet in 1995, astronomers were able to discover the planet 51 Pegasi b circling its star, using a very elegant method. True, we cannot see the planet directly, but astronomers have another trick up their sleeves. It’s called the radial velocity method. Stars – like planets and moons – rotate along their own access. The technique is quite simple – observe a star for long periods of time and detect wobbles in its rotation. These wobbles are caused by planets that are in orbit around the star. If the star doesn’t wobble at all, then it likely has no planets.
You can test this method on yourself to understand it better. Simply stand up and spin round in circles holding your arms tight against your sides. After 5-10 spins stop. This time, hold one arm out and spin again. The weight of your arm will pull your body out making your rotation less convenient. Now if someone can’t see your arm, they can still tell you’re holding it out and that it is the cause of your unsteady spin.
This is an ideal analogy for the health of the Green Movement. Even though it is difficult for us to see the Green Movement, we can observe that it is making the Iranian government wobble constantly. The government is steadily arresting activists, denouncing what it calls "enemies of the state", and sentencing activists, journalists and ordinary citizens to lengthy prison terms to quell the uprising.
In other signs of wobble, former president Hashemi Rafsanjani recently released a statement condemning the treatment by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Co. of the people, especially of the families of former government officials and religious leaders. Some even interpret Rafsanjani's declaration as an implicit of Ali Khamenei for his silence over Ahmadinejad’s actions.
And if this were not enough, even though both Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, the supposed leaders of the Green Movement, have called on their supporters not to show up on 12 June, the government has ramped up security across the country. Reports indicate that Tehran’s police have enough help to withstand hundreds of thousands of protesters. Now why would the Iranian government do that if it knew the Green Movement to be dead?
The answer is pretty simple. The Green Movement is ever present in Iran’s daily life. The Iranian government wishes it were not, but it is. It is alive even if, for the moment, it seems to have decided not to give into government intimidation but also not to blindly march without support from the entirety of Iran’s population.
Every passing day, the Green Movement becomes stronger as it manages to survive and cause headaches for the government. It continues to stand as an alternative to unquestioning support for a suspect government. Protest or no protest, the struggle continues. It may be months, it may be years, but the Green Movement is going to remove the Islamic regime.
For if the regime has paid killers, Chinese trucks, and Nokia deep-packet inspection devices, the Movement gives Iranians what they so deserve: respect and dignity as human beings.
Reader Comments (12)
[...] proberen zich op het web moed in te spreken. Zo vergelijkt journalist en mensenrechtenactivist Josh Sharyhar de ‘groene beweging’ met de planeet 51 Pegasi b. Beiden zijn lastig te zien maar hun [...]
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THANK YOU Josh. You know, I have a job, a band, a company and a life. The only reason I keep blogging about Iran is that the Green Movement is real, and is righteous.
I'll admit my own shortcomings here, as I used to believe that the movement was about the impending doom of the IRI, or the masses on the streets. I took a time out, and basically stopped Tweeting last summer.
Then Qods day happened, and I realized that a movement that I thought had faded had just moved to the shadows.
In America, we could protest every day without getting shot at. Just because people aren't on the street doesn't mean that they stop believing in what they believe.
I also believe, though, that this movement is still an infant. It's going to have to grow, to take stronger root in the rural areas, before it will triumph. But I believe that democracy in Iran, real democracy, is an inevitability.
Your analogy is spot on, friend. Keep up the good work.
Josh,
Thank you so much for your inspiring article!
I was just trying to put together a rejection of all those allegations that Mousavi and Karroubi are traitors, that the GM is gone, if it does not show up in the streets, that the people won't come out with a permission etc.
51 Pegasi b is a wonderful metaphor for foreign observers, but Iranians, who read dozens of Persian articles per day (at least I do), would be even more explicit: For months we have heard of "crippling sanctions" against the IR, obviously in the nuclear case. But who has ever mentioned those "crippling sanctions" inside the country?
If the head of a trade association publicly declares that no Iranian investor is ready to finance new projects, isn't that a sanction?
If the Majlis accepted AN's new cabinet only after the SL's decree aren't that sanctions?
If IRIB viewers drop by 40 % and people boycott products, promoted by IRIB, aren't that sanctions?
If all major state-run festivals and cultural events (e.g. Fajr Festival) are boycotted by the artists and the public, aren't that sanctions?
By unleashing Chinese imports, AN has already done everything to ruin the domestic economy, but until 22 Khordad people were just trying to cope with.
A year later they have adopted an active role, rejecting his efforts to change Iran into a state of paupers, run by the paramilitary-religious complex (an awkward adaption of the Chinese model) by passivity.
The current situation in Iran reminds me of this famous slogan of German labour unions "Alle Räder stehen still, wenn dein starker Arm es will" (all economic wheels are stopped, if you decide it with your strong arms).
Street protests marked Phase 1 of the Green Movement's struggle -- it's time to start Phase 2 :-)
Arshama
Great article. - You painted a wonderful picture. Hoping too that the "Green Movement" will quickly grow.
Thanks Josh, great article!
Thanks Eric. I read the new piece. Let me sum it up for the EA regulars:
blah blah blah...same stuff we've been posting since the election... blah blah blah... new title and a cute cartoon.
Where is the analysis of recent news? Where is the discussion about internal politics in Iran? Pre-anniversary security build up? News of any kind?
Oh, I forgot. All that stuff, news and analysis and the like, is on Enduring America.
James,
Thanks for your useful summary.
Obviously Mr Eric A Brill is now presenting himself only in abridgement, for fear of being ignored by EA readers ;-)
It fits well this new "abridged" (read censored) piece, meant to impress those, who cannot bear the Islamic Republic's unwelcome realities.
Arshama
EAB, the old Eric,
Thanks but no thanks. We have read enough of our nonsense. Go away and find another gig to make a living.
[...] Iran Analysis: The Green Movement and The Lesson of 51 Pegasi B … [...]
Corrected, comments at 4:31 AM
EAB, the old Eric,
Thanks but no thanks. We have read enough of YOUR nonsense. Go away and find another gig to make a living.
[...] Iran Analysis: The Green Movement and The Lesson of 51 Pegasi B … [...]