Friday
Jun182010
Iran Analysis: How Europe Can Help (Mamedov)
Friday, June 18, 2010 at 9:36 
Eldar Mamedov, an international-relations analyst based in Brussels, writes for European Voice:If the past is any guide, the UN Security Council's decision to impose new sanctions on Iran is unlikely to radically alter Iran's behaviour and its pursuit of its nuclear programme. Instead, the EU and US should shift their Iran policy toward increasing the prospects for political change in the country.
The emergence of the Green Movement a year ago as a broad-based opposition to what was perceived as an electoral coup in favour of the hard-line president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, provides an opportunity for such a change.
The Latest from Iran (18 June): Threats & Apologies
The movement, informally led by former presidential candidates Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, has proved itself to be resilient in the face of the ferocious repression by the regime during the last year. For example, to the shock of the establishment, Mousavi strongly and publicly condemned the execution in May of five Kurdish dissidents. This shows that he is reaching out to the broadest possible segments of the Iranian society, including the aggrieved ethnic minorities and populations outside the big cities of Teheran, Isfahan and Tabriz.
A few weeks ago, Mousavi blasted Ahmadinejad's erratic economic policies. These policies have led to an unemployment rate of 50% among the educated youth and inflation of over 20%. Both Mousavi and Karroubi called for demonstrations to mark the anniversary of the presidential elections on 12 June.
Even if the regime finally succeeds in crushing the Green Movement, the opposition in Iran will not disappear. Iran's young, well-educated and well-connected society has seen its desire for political and social freedoms and economic prosperity stifled for far too long. The government's fresh offensive to re-impose ultra-conservative social mores, including the restrictive dress code for women, and a massive purge from the universities of professors deemed too "liberal" or "secular", are further alienating the youth. There are deepening cracks within the system itself, with a growing number of conservatives realising that it is untenable in its current shape. Remarkably, the opposition to the regime also has religious legitimisation, since one of its fiercest critics was the late and very popular Grand Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri.
All this makes the option of supporting the Iranian opposition not only morally right, but also politically feasible. The EU can do it in several ways.
First and foremost, it should put human rights at the core of its strategy towards Iran. Individuals and organisations implicated in human rights violations should be subjected to the EU travel ban and freezing of assets. Non-governmental organisations such as Iran Human Rights Documentation Centre have compiled a list of officials directly involved in murders, torture and rape of the protesters. Contrary to widespread belief, the regime does care about such revelations, since some of the accused, particularly members of the Revolutionary Guard, have business interests in Europe and travel to Europe for, for instance, medical treatment. The revelations of the atrocities also fly in the face of the Islamic Republic‘s attempts to promote itself internationally as a unique example of a ‘modern religious democracy'. Sanctions against the perpetrators would send a clear message that there is a cost attached to the repression. It may save lives.
The EU should increase its efforts to protect Iranian dissidents, by, for instance, granting asylum in Europe. Thousands of them are currently waiting in Turkey for their applications to the EU countries to be processed. Meanwhile, they are being harassed and intimidated by Iranian agents. The EU must put pressure on Turkey to rein in the Iranian agents and more EU countries should follow the example of Germany, which already offered asylum to some of the dissidents. This will help the Green movement find a foothold abroad and establish a connection between its leadership and the EU governments.
Second, the EU must do its utmost to facilitate the opposition's access to the internet and other electronic communications in the face of government interference. It should protest loudly any jamming of broadcasts from Europe, such as Iran's attempts to block the BBC's Persian TV, and it should find ways to retaliate. The export of surveillance technology by European companies to Iran, whose government could use it to violate freedom of expression, should be stopped.
Third, the EU can help the disparate groups that have coalesced into the Green movement to resolve their ideological differences and decide what comes next. The religious democrats, including Moussavi and Karroubi, want to work within the system and reform existing laws. By contrast, liberals and social democrats insist that the current constitution and political structure are unreformable and should be replaced by a secular republic. The EU can provide a platform for debate among these groups to work out a common strategy and evolve into an alternative political force capable of ruling Iran. Foundations under European political parties can be instrumental in this effort.
While the nuclear issue will remain on the agenda for the foreseeable future, the EU should see the big picture. For the first time in three decades there is an opportunity for popular-led political change in Iran. It will take time, but it is an opportunity not to be missed.
Reader Comments (17)
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[...] Iran Analysis: How Europe Can Help (Mamedov) | Enduring America [...]
I think Catherine Ashton should read this!
http://eeas.europa.eu/ashton/spokespersons/index_en.htm" rel="nofollow">http://eeas.europa.eu/ashton/spokespersons/inde...
Has anybody stopped to ask the green wave itself if such external "help" is desired? Or is this more along the lines of, "never mind what they say, they can't ask for it, but this is what they privately tell us." How, pray tell, will mighty Europe help resolved alleged internal ideological splits? And what's an Iranian "social democrat?" Would that be an Iranian based in Germany, or Russia?
Hi Ange, I am pleased that you are back again. Regards Gunniy
Hi Gunniy; I have already sent a comment about the link sent by Witteker on "Yaran forces" attacking IRIB on last saturday, asking them to look after our people, their security in order to save their lives but it was not published ! I hope this one will be !
Not convinced,
If you listen to VOA, and Radio Farda, people of Iran are :
- for "sanctions", even tougher than what was voted in UN and
- the support of foreign countries;
As my friend Megan said several times, they said during their demonstrations " in the past :" OBAMA YA BA OUNA YA BA MA" ; Now, all the countries support them, they are reckoned as heroes in the world !
Generally each person likes to be supported by the others, even you, is it not true ?? .It's very good to be able to have a TV channel for iranian opposition abroad, in each country in the world, where all people could debate freely so that iranian people, inside and outside the country hear different thoughts and ideologies, in order to organize and plan the political future of Iran; it's not at all an interference in the manner of how is run the country; if we had those facilities and freedom to express freely ourselves inside the country, we would not be obliged to turn to this kind of means which will help to instaure the democracy in Iran! thus, people of Iran will understand each other, with mutual respect and esteem, and "tomorrow" we will have several parties , different thoughts and a democratic country.
@ not convinced..
Well, what and who is 'the green wave' ? How can you ask a multi form movement what they all think. Even the leaders have said it is a civic or civilian movement, it's not one political party.
I have seen many comments about 'foreign meddling' since last June. Then also we see pleas for help. In fact, I have come to the conclusion that foreigners have been very muted and discrete, at least on the surface.
This article gives pratical simple suggestions, as have others.
Why shouldn't european countries forbid criminals from entering or doing trade with them ? Not that they don't, after all, european countries are made up of individuals who also cheat the system or laws.
I may be naive, but at least I would like to think that european countries try to agree to collective moral and humane decisions concerning various rogue nations. These suggestions are quite possible and don't need alot of time or complicated agreements.
As Ange Paris says, creating platforms for exiles to discuss future developments is normal. After all, Khomeini did his stuff from Paris too ! Does that make France the creator of the Islamic régime ? In fact France, land of assylum, has allowed some of the best, and the worst on its soil.
So why shouldn't european countries allow satelite tv and assylum to exiles so they can rest and organize themselves ? I hope they do so and quickly. In fact I wouldnt be surprised if even the leaders will be landing there soon, otherwise those thugs and gangs will be not just vandalising offices, homes and cars, but much worse. For me it is coming to a turning point.
Ange
I think it`s important and necessary that iranians are going to use the infrastructure in countries wherever they live. Ange - do you know arte - tv ? They are broadcasting in a very good quality - and often they have news about Iran, too. So far I know it`s the only one who is broadcasting in France and Germany together. Two weeks ago arte tv was broadcasting " offside" - the latest movie made by Panahi. I enjoyed it. After the movie they dispatched an Interview with him and he talked about his experiences he made inside Evin.
Maybe we should organise an " movie - watch" or news watch for ate tv and
3sat.
Sundeye
When Khomenie lived in France for preparing his comeback to Iran nobody
knows what will happen when he returned. It`s Interesting - he used all the big European newspapers for interviews like a politician.
Gunniy
Yes we see Arte. I don't know if we have the same programs though (germany and France). I missed that film, pity.
For medias, radio France Culture did a whole week on Iran, (7- 11 june), with various themes and witnesses who were imprisoned and some who have fled. Also two days with Clotilde Reiss. They were very interesting. http://www.franceculture.com/emission-les-pieds-sur-terre.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.franceculture.com/emission-les-pieds... if you understand french.
'sundeye' was an old pseudo when I logged in with Yahoo, and couldn't change it.
damn, it still posts as old name, I'm 'pessimist', hmm, will check that out tomorrow.
Ange,
You broke down and just had to get your "fix" in to avoid the withdrawal symptoms!!! :) HA HA Glad your back!
Thx
Bill
Gunniy and Pessimist
Arte has only programs about Iran and there is no debates with different people coming on the stage and debating ( like VOA) each other; I have printed the article of Mamedov and next monday, I will send it to Mr sarkozy, perhaps he will be able to manage something for iranian opposition.
Megan and all of you in USA , you can do it with Mr Obama; Gunniy and Arshama in Germany and Mrs Angela Merkel and so on; perhaps with our voices, we could do a useful miracle.
Bienrevenue Ange!
(I don't know if that's an actual word but you'll understand) ;-)
Anyway, I'v sent the article to Catherine Ashton's spokesperson from a government e-mail address. I hope she "gets the message" both literally and figuratively.
Dear Bill
We can't withdraw forever because we love our country and anger disappears with time; but people behind the trap have to help our voices to be heard in time fishing the comments quickly !
Bonjour Catherine
We say " bienvenue" without "R"; Merci beaucoup , despite all thoses difficulties, I will try, but it will be lesser ; the conditions greeting the guests are not easy and the guests are not " les bienvenus" ! pity !
Ange,
Welcome back! khosh amadid :-)
Green forces are nearly complete again...
Arshama
Megan,
Thank you so much for posting this news. Apparently you heard it on VoA, during his discussion on 12 June. 31 years later all those belittled rumours about general Huyser coming to Tehran and fixing the "deal" with the armed forces chiefs appear to turn out true: http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/41947/john-c-campbell/mission-to-tehran" rel="nofollow">http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/41947/jo... Strange things are happening...
Now we have a serious problem: again it wasn't the British who interfered in Iranian politics, but the Americans. High time to replace "Uncle Napoleon" by "Uncle Washington"...
Nagoftam? Hameash zire sare Amrikayiha ast ;-)
Arshama