Sunday
Aug082010
The Latest from Iran (8 August): Small Breakthroughs?
Sunday, August 8, 2010 at 10:05 
1510 GMT: The Campaign Against the President's Man. Prominent "hard-line" cleric Mohammad Yazdi has joined the campaign against Ahmadinejad Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai for his remarks on Iran and Islam.
Ayatollah Yazdi told Fars News: "Esfandiar Rahim-Masha'i must not enter debates in which he knows nothing....One must not undermine the dignity of Islam simply to please others."
1310 GMT: Execution Watch. In her latest interview, Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani, sentenced to death for adultery, has criticised the conduct of the Iranian judiciary.
1300 GMT: German Sanctions-Busting? Der Spiegel claims the customs officers at Frankurt Airport seized Siemens switches destined for Iran's Bushehr nuclear plant via Moscow.
1250 GMT: Green Media. The statement of the IraNeda Foundation, "Marching Towards a People-Based Media", has been posted.
1230 GMT: The Battle Within. "Hardline" politicians are speaking of the Supreme Leader's lost legitimacy, as they defend the autonomy of the Expediency Council.
1220 GMT: Political Prisoners Challenge Election. Seven prominent reformist politicians --- all detained after the June 2009 Presidential election --- have filed a lawsuit claiming the vote was manipulated.
The seven are Mohsen Aminzadeh, Mostafa Tajzadeh, Abdollah Ramezanzadeh, Fayzolah Arabsorkhi, Mohsen Safai Farahani, Mohsen Mirdamadi, and Behzad Nabavi. (http://www.twitter.com/persianbanoo)
1215 GMT: The Hunger Strike. The father of Ali Parviz, one of the 16 political prisoners on hunger strike, has reportedly been arrested. (http://bit.ly/cnijSs)
1210 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Journalist Siamak Ghaderi has reportedly been arrested. (http://bit.ly/cKus4u)
1200 GMT: We have posted a special analysis on social media in the Middle East and Iran, courtesy of Mona Eltahawy, Fartashphoto, and Dave Siavashi.
1115 GMT: The Human Rights Lawyer. Mohammad Mostafaei, the lawyer who fled from Iran two weeks ago as authorities tried to detain him, has now arrived in Norway from Turkey as his request for asylum is being considered. (http://bit.ly/cOFtty)
0455 GMT: Execution Watch. Nobel Prize winner Shirin Ebadi reviews Iran's legal system and stoning, the sentence imposed but not yet implemented on Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani.
0430 GMT: We're still trying to assess two pieces of news that came through at the end of Saturday.
The wife of Mohammad Mostafaei, the human rights lawyer who fled Iran and now may be on his way to asylum in Norway, has been released from prison after two weeks. Is this a tacit Tehran admission that the strategy of holding family members in jail to force the return of those it wants to detain --- a "new low", as an EA contact put it --- has failed? Or is simply the recognition that Mostafaei can not represent clients while he is in exile and that he will still have to keep in mind that his family has been left behind in Iran?
Then there was the release of photojournalist Babak Bordbar from detention. Bordbar had been in prison for seven months and was one of 17 political prisoners on hunger strike. Was this a small sign that this tactic works or were there more mundane reasons for Bordbar's freedom, such as the regular practice of controlling undesirable activity through high bails and the prospect of a return to jail?
Meanwhile....
Ahmadinejad's Saturday Speech
For those who want to test out reports of President Ahmadinejad's speech on the eve of National Speech Day, noted primarily by the Western press for its claim of an exaggerated death toll on 11 September 2001 and its "denial" of the Holocaust --- Press TV carried the 9-11 reference but did not mention any comment on the fate of Jews in and beyond Germany --- the video has been posted.
Reader Comments (20)
RE "Was this [Babak Bordbar's release] a small sign that this tactic works or were there more mundane reasons for Bordbar’s freedom, such as the regular practice of controlling undesirable activity through high bails and the prospect of a return to jail?
According to Radio Zamaneh, his release wsa a part of the demands of all 17, so it seems the authorities were giving in on at least one demand:
The political prisoners who have been moved to solitary confinement demand that their rights as detainees be respected. They also demand that the violators of these rights be held accountable. Release of photojournalist, Babak Bordbar, increase in their space, medical services and time allotted for telephone calls is also amongst their demands.
http://www.zamaaneh.com/enzam/2010/08/iranian-political-figures.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.zamaaneh.com/enzam/2010/08/iranian-p...
GVF has an English translation of a piece by Parastoo Sarmadi, wife of Hossein Nouraninejad, one of the prisoners on hunger strike in Evin prison’s ward 350.
It is it titled, “Stay alive and well for Iran”
http://en.irangreenvoice.com/article/2010/aug/07/2239" rel="nofollow">http://en.irangreenvoice.com/article/2010/aug/0...
Rafsanjani: News Censorship Destroys People's Trust
Rafsanjani made the remarks in Tehran on Saturday, one day ahead of Iran's national Journalists Day. "The wider the circle of news fabrication and the denial of truth, the less the people will trust the national media, and (they) will shift (their) attention to the foreign media," he added.
He said that journalists help raise awareness in society, and thus they contribute to the country's progress. He also called on the Islamic Republic of Iran to promote truthful journalism and prompt reporting in the country.
http://www.payvand.com/news/10/aug/1069.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.payvand.com/news/10/aug/1069.html
Source MEHR
Another small breakthrough on the International Front? "U.S. Seeks to Offer a Balm to Iran for Sanctions’ Sting". By David E. Sanger.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/08/world/middleeast/08sanctions.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/08/world/middlee...
Quoting> President Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, arguing that an orchestrated series of global sanctions has brought more economic pain than Iran’s government anticipated, are making a renewed appeal to Iranian leaders to reopen negotiations on the country’s nuclear program. (...)
A senior White House official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said that in coming days, the administration would stress its view that “the economic difficulties experienced by the public” in Iran are being caused by choices the Iranian government is making. (...)
These days, American officials appear to be spending almost as much time trying to assess the impact of economic sanctions as they are to trying to measure Iran’s nuclear progress. So far the reports of the financial effects are largely anecdotal, but taken together they suggest the country is feeling some pain. <End of quote.
Disregard
Another client of human rights lawyer Mohammad Mostafaei, has been sentenced to death.
18-year-old Ebrahim Hamidi, who is not gay, was sentenced to death for lavat, or sodomy, on the basis of "judge's knowledge", a legal loophole that allows for subjective judicial rulings where there is no conclusive evidence. After three days in detention, Hamidi confessed to the crime, allegedly under torture. However, Last month Hamidi's alleged victim admitted that he had been under pressure from his parents to make false accusations. Nevertheless the local judiciary has insisted that Hamidi should be executed.
More: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/aug/08/iran-mohammad-mostafaei-rights-lawyer" rel="nofollow">http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/aug/08/ira...
More anecdotal evidence: In talking with my family they indicate that the nose dive of the economy started before Iranian New Years (March) and it's just accelerating. They talk about their first hand knowledge of a very rich Iranian factory owner with over $240 million in capital who is now on the run from his workers because he has not been able to pay them for over a year now. Why? Because the IRG and the city government owe him tens of million of dollars for his products but have not been paying him. So he has just ran out of cash flow to pay them.
Aside from the obvious supply/demand another factor that drives prices is "anticipated events", as Iranians of all income level feel high uncertainty and anticipate things to get worse, they react by doing what they can to cushion the impact on themselves which means that they cut corners, raise prices, and take whatever other actions to gain short-term financial advantage. These actions just add to inflation and uncertainty and worsen the nose dive.
Catherine, I cannot explain why the decline seems to be going in such a fast pace. I think the psychological factor is important too - and hard to judge from the outside. The situation in Iran reminds me a lot of the situation in Czechoslovakia, leading up to the so called Velvet Revolution at the end of 1989.
The factors leading up to the change are not well documented, but I was there shortly after the Vaclav Havel took over as president and spoke to people from his inner circle. They told me the economic crisis preceding the Velvet Revolution was essential. And this crisis was not imposed from the outside, but came from within: people just stopped *working* - their heart wasn't in it anymore. They described it as a sort of unofficial "national strike", that lasted about a year. The joke in those days: people left work on Friday for their Dacha (which they were allowed to have, as a compensation after the previous, collapsed revolution under Alexander Dubcek). They worked hard on their Dacha, to grow food, raise chicken, repair cars etc. And they would return to their offices on Monday late, so they could take a rest till the next Friday...
Could this be happening in Iran now?
Another factor might be that lots of trading partners/companies anticipated sanctions or any other sort of trouble. I'm sure they assessed that Iran wasn't a very stable, reliable trading partner anymore - after June 12...
Bijan,
I spent a month in Iran in May/June 2008 and inflation was around 25% when we arrived and 28% when we left. Our guide would give us updates on prices rises of basic food products whenever he called his wife :-). There was even a boycott of milk in Shiraz just before we left because shoppers refused to pay the new much higher price. No one could save up to buy a car or house or other large item because inflation decimated the value of their savings on a monthly basis. Although inflation is now much lower than then, the damage it did two years ago (your reference to people doing what they can to cushion the impact on themselves) does not seem to have disappeared.
WitteKr,
I think there is a lot of (wilfull) confusion right now as to whether longer term internal factors are the culprits of Iran's economic decline or the latest rounds of sanctions. The Obama administration would like people to believe it's the latter odf course.
But even analysts who look at the issue from a pro-sanctions stance doubt the ability of recently approved sanctions to have done so much damage in so little time:
Is it too early to ease up on Iran?
(last 3 paragraphs)
http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/08/07/is_it_too_early_to_release_the_pressure_on_iran" rel="nofollow">http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/08/07/...
Isa Saharkhiz Experiencing Partial Paralysis in Dire Physical Condition at Rajai Shahr Prison
http://www.rhairan.us/en/?p=6283" rel="nofollow">http://www.rhairan.us/en/?p=6283
Eyes on the Skies Over Bushehr Nuclear Reactor
Analysis by Marsha B. Cohen
Iranian and Russian nuclear scientists and officials have announced Bushehr's reactor will soon be receiving its first shipment of nuclear fuel 36 years after construction first began on the project. This claim may be quietly fueling speculation that a military strike on Iran by Israel - or the U.S. - may be imminent.
http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=52412" rel="nofollow">http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=52412
The father of one of the political prisoners currently on hunger strike in Evin prison has been arrested.
According to Kaleme, a website affiliated with opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi, the father of Ali Parviz was arrested this morning at the Iranian judiciary. He was about to submit a letter to the judiciary on behalf of the families of political prisoners.
http://en.irangreenvoice.com/article/2010/aug/08/2243" rel="nofollow">http://en.irangreenvoice.com/article/2010/aug/0...
RE: 1220 GMT: Political Prisoners Challenge Election. Seven prominent reformist politicians — all detained after the June 2009 Presidential election — have filed a lawsuit claiming the vote was manipulated.
Here's a report in English on 'Sarollah-gate':
http://www.zamaaneh.com/enzam/2010/08/iranian-reformists-press.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.zamaaneh.com/enzam/2010/08/iranian-r...
Naj has a posted profile of one of the older of the 17 political prisoners on hunger strike, Arjang Davoudi, who has been in prison since 2003.
He was sentenced to 15 years of prison and 74 lashes for having spoken to a Canadian journalist who worked on a documentary (Forbidden Iran) about the death of Zahra Kazemi. This was the event that crystallized the rift within the ranks of the IRI, as it happened under international watch during the presidency of Mohammad Khatami. It is also over Zahra Kazemi's death that relations between Canada and Iran fell apart.
http://iranfacts.blogspot.com/2010/08/arjang-davoudis-critical-condition.html" rel="nofollow">http://iranfacts.blogspot.com/2010/08/arjang-da...
And the latest on Mohammad Mostafaei:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100808/ap_on_re_eu/eu_norway_iran_stoning" rel="nofollow">http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100808/ap_on_re_eu...
RE Ahmadinejad’s Saturday Speech. "Judiciary chief Ayatollah Sadeq Larijani made a strong criticism against President Ahmadinejad, saying it is expected that the president use a decent language and be fair in making judgments. He said on Saturday, the day marking Journalist Day, some unfair statements were made against the Judiciary which “unfortunately” the president also took part in those discussions." English by Mehr news (sorry).
http://www.mehrnews.com/en/NewsDetail.aspx?NewsID=1130371" rel="nofollow">http://www.mehrnews.com/en/NewsDetail.aspx?News...
Funny... in this article: "Maybe the White House ought to release the transcript of the briefing, so we can see for ourselves what the overall tenor of the administration's message was." And that's exactly what they did just now :-)
http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2010/08/145784.htm" rel="nofollow">http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2010/08/14578...
(See also my later entry below).
Press TV: 'US seeks to engage Iran in talks'
Sun, 08 Aug 2010 18:54:56 GMT
Curiously posted almost an hour AFTER:
'Iran not insisting on talks with US'
Sun, 08 Aug 2010 18:01:19 GMT
A senior Iranian official Brushes aside the US proposal for talks, saying it remains to be seen whether Washington will pursue the matter through diplomatic channels.
"We must [wait to] see if it will be following up on the matter through official and diplomatic channels or [its proposal] was merely empty words," said senior presidential aide Mojtaba Samareh-Hashemi.
http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=137953§ionid=351020101" rel="nofollow">http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=137953&sec...
:-)
This interview with Clinton is priceless!
Q: So our first question is: Have you put forward to them in recent times a new list of what they would have to do? And if so, can you sort of talk us through that list?
Clinton: Waffle, waffle. waffle
Q: Okay, but the question was, have you given them sort of a new list now that you’ve gotten their attention?... have you now gone back to them and said, okay, now that we’ve got your attention, here is the list of things that you could do right away?
Clinton: Well –
Q: Or – has that been transmitted through the Swiss, through any other way? Have you been direct?
Clinton: Waffle, waffle. waffle
Q: Okay. But there has not been a specific new missive, the President, you, someone has not sent a letter saying here’s a list of three or four things you could do to get this rolling now?
Clinton: No, no, but we have certainly sent --
Q: Done it in the past, yeah.
Clinton: Waffle, waffle. waffle
:-)