Iran Today: A Week In The Presidential Election

Is Fars News Endorsing Saeed Jalili?

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Joanna Paraszczuk and Scott Lucas write:

In the week since registration for Presidential candidates closed and the Guardian Council began vetting the almost 700 Iranians who submitted their names, Iran's media has been dominated by two contenders: former President Hashemi Rafsanjani and chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili.

However, with the Supreme Leader's 2+1 Coalition yet to declare any "unity" candidate, the question now is who will be able to mobilize significant support within the regime to counter Rafsanjani.

So far, only Jalili has emerged as a front runner.

Just as significant is the apparent confusion in the principlist and conservative camp. Although talk of a "unity" candidate is ongoing, no figure apart from Jalili has shown the organization and initiative to offer an alternative to Rafsanjani.

Presidential Election Watch: Rafsanjani, Motahari Respond to Jannati's Friday Prayer Comments

Both Conservative MP Ali Motahari and Presidential candidate and former President Hashemi Rafsanjani have responded to remarks by temporary Tehran Friday Prayer leader Ayatollah Jannati yesterday.

In yesterday's Friday prayers, Jannati dubbed "laughable jokes" pledges by presidential candidates to repair Iran's relationship with the US and resolve the economic hardship caused by Western sanctions.

Motahari said that in the 2009 election the people were "deceived" and that the Guardian Council must approve Rafsanjani as a Presidential candidate.

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Syria Today: The Fight Over the International "Peace" Conference

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Insurgents Retake Suburb of Damascus

Insurgents have retaken the Damascus suburb of Otaiba, which was been a conduit for arms from Jordan to opposition forces near the capital before it was seized by regime forces last month.

Commanders said insurgent brigades, including the General Command and Islamist factions, had united to re-claim Otaiba, two miles northeast of Damascus International Airport.

The opposition forces adopted a white banner with the Muslim declaration of faith: "There is no god but God; Mohammad is God's prophet."

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Middle East Live: Bahrain --- Security Forces Raid Home of Top Shia Cleric

Sheikh Isa Qassim Iraq: 32 Dead In Explosions Outside Sunni Mosque in Baquba

Reuters are reporting that at least 32 people have died in twin explosions outside a Sunni mosque in Baquba, about 50 km (30 miles) northeast of Baghdad.

According to Reuters, police and medics said the blasts occurred after Friday prayers --- when worshippers would have been exiting the mosque. Bahrain: Security Forces Raid Home of Sheikh Isa Qassim

Security forces raided the home of Shiekh Isa Qassim early Friday in Diraz, about 10 kilometers (six miles) west of the capital Manama.

Qassim was not at home at the time, but his family members were present.

After the officers searched the home, police helicopters patrolled the area for hours.

Qassim has prominently supported the protests and calls for reforms that escalated in February 2011.

Turkey Audio Feature: Kurdish Fighters Withdraw From Turkey To Iraq

A PKK fighter works on her laptop after arriving in the northern Iraqi city of Dohuk on 14 May 2013, after leaving Turkey as part of a peace drive with Ankara. (Photo: AFP -Safin Hamed)

EA's Scott Lucas spoke with Monocle 24's The Daily on Thursday night, discussing the implications for Turkey after the first group of militants from the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) withdrew from southeast Turkey and entered Iraq, at the behest of their leader, Abdullah Ocalan --- who is serving a life sentence in Turkey --- and as part of a peace plan aimed to end three decades of conflict.

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Iran Today: Are Jalili And Rafsanjani The Front-Runners?

In Front Of Rafsanjani? Saeed Jalili Tweets Photograph Of Himself And Former President

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Presidential Election Watch: No Women Allowed

A member of the Guardian Council, Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi, has declared that the "law does not approve'' of a woman in the presidency and a woman on the ballot is "not allowed".

Although few would have expected any female candidates to be accepted by the Guardian Council given the prominent figures that are currently dominating the election build-up, 30 women did register as candidates.

Presidential Election Watch: Attacking Rafsanjani

Presidential hopeful Alireza Zakani has criticised former president Hashemi Rafsanjani for “blunders” during his time in his office.

Zakani said “Despite his services in the past, Mr. Hashemi has proved that he is a man [prone to] huge mistakes.”

He also predicted that the former president would be defeated in the election but urged his fellow principlists to unite together against their rivals.

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Syria Today: Obama & Erdogan Call for Assad to Go --- But Will They Do Anything?

Rebels Prepare to Attack Damascus Airport.

Rebel fighters may be on the move once again in Damascus, near the international airport that is used to ferry supplies in and out of the country.

#Syria #Damascus Big battle in vicinity of int. airport with mortar impacts on runway Rebel convoy heading to ityoutube.com/watch?feature=…

— Mark (@markito0171) May 17, 2013

Meanwhile, to the north of Damascus the Assad regime has been conducting an intense artillery and airstrike campaign against Yabroud. The hilltop suburb has been heavily occupied by rebel forces for many months, but it now appears that the area is being softened up, possibly or a direct regime assault on the town.

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Syria Audio Analysis: Why The Insurgency is More than "Jihadists" and "Cannibals"

Speaking with Monocle 24's The Briefing this afternoon, I faced the question if the West was distancing itself from the insurgency because they are "jihadists" and "cannibals".

Listen from 5:53 mark on The Briefing's homepage or in a separate pop-out window

I replied that the issues are far more complex than backing of Al Qa'eda-affiliated extremists and flesh-eating fighters.

1. The US and Britain are trying to get a political conference for a transitional government in which President Assad has no role --- and are pressuring Russia for this.

2. If this is not possible, Washington and London are considering, but are still undecided, about support of a no-fly zone and arming of the insurgents "in an attempt to remove the Assad regime or to contain it in a few areas".

Syria Today: Pressure and Propaganda --- From the UN to Israel to Russia

See also Syria Audio Analysis: Why The Insurgency is More than "Jihadists" and "Cannibals"
Wednesday's Syria Today: US and Russia Manoeuvre Over Support for Assad

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Obama and Erdogan Speak.

US President Barack Obama and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Erdogan have given a joint press conference in a rainy White House Rose Garden. One would think with both world leaders on the same stage that topics like terrorism on the Turkish/Syria border, the ongoing Syrian crisis, and the sectarian strife in Iraq would be major priorities. They were not. These topics were not raised until more than halfway through Obama's opening comments, and there was no news beyond echoing very general statements that mirror the policies that have been more-fully expressed at other times.

Syria was clearly not on the agenda, though another journalist makes an important note that this may soon change:

Note that PM Erdogan will have 2 hour private dinner w/pres Obama tonight, it's when, Erdogan says, will talk Syria in depth #rosegarden

— ilhan tanir (@WashingtonPoint) May 16, 2013

More notable might be the questions from the press. Due to rain, the press conference may have been shortened, but the 1st question asked to Obama was about a domestic scandal (the IRS) and the 1st question to Erdogan was about Turkey's policies towards Israel. In other words, while having both leaders on record at the same time, some really interesting questions could have been asked about how these two leaders will pursue their most pressing common problem. Instead, they were squandered on offering the leaders an opportunity to echo talking points that they're already given.

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Middle East Today: Iraq --- Bombs Kill More than 35 on Wednesday

Photo: Ako Rasheed/ReutersIraq: Security Forces Raid Farm of Sunni Tribal Leader

Security forces have raided the farm of prominent Sunni tribal leader Sheikh Ali Hatem al-Suleiman, seeking to arrest him.

Al-Suleiman, emir of the Dulaim tribes, has been instrumental in setting up the "Army of Pride and Dignity", a tribal force in Ramadi and elsewhere in Anbar Province, west of Baghdad.

The emir said that dozens of Army of Pride and Dignity members later tracked down the Iraqi army convoy that conducted the raid and clashed with it, freeing three farmers who had been seized.

"This is it; enough is enough. We will attack every Iraqi army checkpoint in Anbar if they don't withdraw from Anbar province immediately," Al-Suleiman said. "We will not accept any talks or negotiations with the government anymore."

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Iran Today: How To Use Nuclear Talks In An Election Campaign

Presidential candidate Saeed Jalili (right) after nuclear discussions with Catherine Ashton, the representative of the 5+1 Powers

See also Wednesday's Iran Today: Lines Drawn In Presidential Campaigns

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The Guardian Council, the body vetting the almost 700 people who had registered as candidates for the Presidential election, is scheduled to make its decisions today. However, with up to 40 prominent politicians and public figures among the hopefuls, it is close to a certainty that the Council will request a five-day extension.

Yet even at this early stage, it appears that the final battle may be emerging: former President Hashemi Rafsanjani will take his challenge all the way to the run-off on 21 June.

And to stop him, the Supreme Leader and others within the system will turn to Saeed Jalili, the Secretary of the National Security Council.

Despite no previous electoral experience, Jalili has put together an impressive campaign --- including through social media --- to take attention from other conservatives and principlists, including the members of the Supreme Leader's 2+1 Committee.

An example of that campaigning acumen? Jalili, Iran's lead negotiator in nuclear talks with the 5+1 Powers, used Wednesday's discussions with the 5+1's Catherine Ashton --- scheduled well before the formal registration of candidates --- to highlight his diplomatic and political skills.

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Presidential Election Watch: Rafsanjani Edition

The reformist Assembly of Combatant Clerics has unanimously endorsed former President Hashemi Rafsanjani for this year's election.

Presidential Election Watch: Rafsanjani Edition

Conservative website Entekhab notes that former President and Presidential candidate Hashemi Rafsanjani was a confidante of Ayatollah Khomeini, and that during his past presidency he had wanted to improve relations with the USA.

Entekhab notes that in the 2005 Presidential campaign, Rafsanjani declared that he was ready for dialog with America and "has made similar comments about negotiations with America".

Entekhab also noted that Rafsanjani's government had focussed on "rebuilding the economy".

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