The Latest from Iran (1 November): Supreme Leader Tells His Top Officials "Stop Fighting"

1045 GMT: Economy Watch. Tehran Friday Prayer leader Hojatoleslam Kazem Seddiqi, address Basij members, has urged the public not to worry about rising prices and economic problems: "The devout will not deviate from the path because of these ups and downs."

0630 GMT: Oil Watch. OPEC reports that Iranian oil production fell again in October, sinking to its lowest point since the Iran-Iraq War in 1988.

Output dropped fell by 30,000 barrels per day to 2.67 million bpd, about 35% lower than its 2011 figure.

Iran sent more crude to South Korea in October, but at the cost of delaying some shipments to its biggest customer China, sources in the survey said.

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: A New Opposition Leadership?

http://wapo.st/S3I0kY  

See also EA Audio: James Miller on Opposition Leadership & Failure of Ceasefires
Wednesday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: The Regime Steps Up Airstrikes

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1821 GMT: Syria. An emotional appeal from an online activist:

Video:When these rockets landed, many souls ascended to Heavens, God willing. A MiG throwing rockets onto Ghoutayoutube.com/watch?v=XLgs7i… #Syria

— ☪†Damascus Tribune†☪ (@DamascusTribune) November 1, 2012

Closer analysis offers an interesting detail among the tragedy. To be clear, a bomb does appear to fall, causing a massive explosion below. This appears to be East Ghouta, and those appear to be residences, so many may have died.

But those "rockets" are not rockets at all - they are flares, used to avoid surface-to-air missiles. Once again, we have evidence that the Syrian air force has permanently changed their behavior and is routinely guarding against these SAM missiles which have fallen into FSA hands in the capture of many area bases.

An analyst we spoke to over a month ago suggested that most pilots would never fire these countermeasures unless they had a radar alert that they had either been locked onto or fired at. Otherwise, the pilot may run out of flares before needing them. Is the FSA actively hunting regime jets east of Damascus?

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: The Regime Steps Up Airstrikes

See also Syria Feature: Obama Administration Seeks a New Opposition Council
Tuesday's Bahrain, Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: "All Rallies and Gatherings Are Illegal"

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2252 GMT: Libya. A day after it was suspended because of protests (see 0500 GMT), the National Assembly approved a 30-member Cabinet presented by Prime Minister-designate Ali Zeidan.

A total of 105 members voted in favour, 18 abstainedm and nine voted against the Cabinet. Moments later, protests erupted, with security forces firing in the air.

More than a dozen security vehicles were stationed at the assembly building, as about 60 people gathered outside the tightly-shut main gate.

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The Latest from Iran (31 October): Ahmadinejad Tries to Assert His Authority

See also Iran Feature: The Week in Civil Society --- Death of a Scholar, Honouring Political Prisoners
The Latest from Iran (30 October): Tehran's Mixed Messages

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2216 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Head of judiciary Sadegh Larijani is still upset that five members of the European Parliament cancelled a trip to Tehran last weekend because authorities refused to let them see imprisoned lawyer Nasrin Sotoudeh and filmmaker Jafar Panahi, free on bail but facing a six-year sentence.

Last week, the European Parliament honoured Sotoudeh, detained since September 2010, and Panahi with the Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought.

Larijani said, “How would the European Parliament allow itself to set precondition for visiting our country and announce that it intends to grant awards to people, who have been sentenced by Iran’s independent Judiciary? Isn’t this an unjustified and clear intervention against a sovereign state?”

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US Election Video Analysis: Mitt Must Win Ohio or The Race is Over

With just one week to go before the US Presidential Election, Mitt Romney's state-by-state polling is failing to show any significant bounce. Republicans are getting worried.

In our video analysis of the 2012 US Presidential Election last week, we said that Romney had to win Ohio plus two of four states --- Virginia, Colorado, Nevada and Iowa. With numbers looking worse for the Republican candidate, we now believe that if Romney doesn't win Ohio, he can't win the election.

Burma Opinion: Aung San Suu Kyi --- From Freedom Fight to Realpolitik (Oddsdottir)

Other than pleasing the international community, Suu Kyi has little to gain and everything to lose by speaking out for the ethnic minorities at the moment. However, Given that the "minorities" are actually 60% of the population, is this really a path to peace?

Is Suu Kyi all we had hoped for?

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Syria Feature: Obama Administration Seeks a New Opposition Council (Rogin)

Opposition figure Riad SeifSyrian opposition leaders of all stripes will convene in Qatar next week to form a new leadership body to subsume the opposition Syrian National Council, which is widely viewed as ineffective, consumed by infighting, and little respected on the ground.

The State Department has been heavily involved in crafting the new council as part of its effort oust Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and build a more viable and unified opposition. In September, for instance, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton met with a group of Syrian activists who were flown in to New York for a high-level meeting that has not been reported until now.

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Iran Feature: The Week in Civil Society --- Death of a Scholar, Honouring Political Prisoners (Arseh Sevom)

Ahmad GhabelThis week we mark the passing of religious scholar and political dissident Ahmad Ghabel and the award of the prestigious Sakharov Prize to filmmaker Jafar Panahi and imprisoned lawyer Nassrin Sotoudeh. The non-binding Iran Tribunal closed in The Hague. United for Iran released a report highly critical of the focus of the international community on Iran's nuclear program at the expense of human rights.

The economy continues to falter and workers are losing their jobs at alarming rates. Afghans continue to be repatriated, while the government does its best to widen the gender gap. The Tehran Symphony is now only available to those who can privately hire them, and a new film on the lives of transexuals in Iran has opened in the country.

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US Elections Audio: Hurricane Sandy and Obama v. Romney --- Scott Lucas with the BBC

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I spoke with BBC West Midlands this afternoon about the effect of Hurricane Sandy on the US Presidential election, assessing whether it will have a decisive effect in a close contest.

The take-away line? The event will not significantly alter the outcome, but it will have a marginal benefit to President Obama. That said, by the weekend, I expect the last-minute dynamics of the campaign to overtake the primary focus on Sandy.

The item begins at the 7:45 mark.

The Latest from Iran (30 October): Tehran's Mixed Messages

See also Iran Analysis: The Regime Tells the US, "You Are Plotting Against Us --- Let's Talk"
Iran Exclusive: Did Supreme Leader's Top Advisor Meet US Officials in Qatar?
The Latest from Iran (29 October): We Will Defeat the Sanctions, The Sanctions Are Killing Us

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2100 GMT: Nuclear Watch. Back from an extended business break to find Press TV continuing State media's encouraging signals about renewed discussions of Iran's nuclear programme:

EU foreign policy chief, Catherine Ashton, says she has plans to meet with Iran's chief negotiator Saeed Jalili, hoping new talks between Iran and the group of six major world powers could lead to a diplomatic solution.

Ashton said on Tuesday that European officials met last weekend with aides to the Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council Saeed Jalili, adding that she plans to meet directly with him [Jalili] soon, Associated Press reported.

The announcement is seen as a key step in the resumption of talks between Iran and the P5+1 group --- which consists of Britain, China, France, Russia, and the US plus Germany -- over Tehran’s nuclear energy program.

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