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Wednesday
Oct172012

US Politics Analysis: Obama Rebounds, Romney Stumbles

See also US Politics Video: The 2nd Obama-Romney Debate
EA Video Analysis: How to Use American Deaths to Win a Presidential Election


EA's Scott Lucas and Lee Haddigan write for The Hill

Forget policy and details. Last night's presidential town hall debate at Hofstra University in New York was about each candidate's acting in the political theatre. Could President Obama atone for his lackluster display in the first debate without appearing too aggressive? Could Mitt Romney maintain the aura from the first debate in Denver of an authentic presidential alternative?

We had answers within the 90 minutes.“Can Obama Rebound?” is now the question of the past. “Can Romney Re-surge?” takes over.

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Wednesday
Oct172012

EA Video Analysis: How to Use American Deaths to Win a Presidential Election

See also US Politics Video: The 2nd Obama-Romney Debate


As details emerge of the death of four Americans, including US Ambassador to Libya Chris Stevens, in an attack on 11 September on the American Consulate in Benghazi, six minutes on why Mitt Romney's focus on the issue is political manipulation rather than a contribution to "security" and US foreign policy....

Wednesday
Oct172012

The Latest from Iran (17 October): "We Support Free Elections....In Syria"

See also The Latest from Iran (16 October): "Currency Market Disruptors Will Be Executed"


1819 GMT: From Hero to Forced Retirement. Pilot Houshang Shahbazi, who became a national hero last October with the emergency landing of a plane with more than 100 passengers and crew, says he has been forced into early retirement because he voiced concerns over safety.

“Authorities in charge have [prevented] me from flying and have confined me at home under the excuse that I have portrayed flights by Iranian airlines as unsafe,” Shahbazi said.

The 56-year-old Shahbazi says he had nine years left before the end of his career as a pilot, but he upset authorities who repeatedly asked him to stop his public efforts against the U.S. sanctions that ban Iran from buying spare parts for its aging civilian airline fleet:

[Officials] told me, ‘You can return to work under certain conditions.’ They said, ‘You have to commit yourself not to engage in social work anymore.’ I refused.

Footage of Shahbazi's landing of a Boeing-727, flying from Moscow to Tehran’s Mehrabad airport, after its front landing gear jammed:

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Wednesday
Oct172012

Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: A New Diplomatic Initiative?

See also EA Video Analysis: How to Use American Deaths to Win a Presidential Election
Libya Report: Militias "Massacred" Qaddafi and His Loyalists
Tuesday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: UN Envoy Brahimi Moves Through the Region
The Latest from Israel-Palestine (16 October): Netanyahu's Threats That Will Dominate the Elections


1921 GMT: Syria. Another plane shot down? This video was reportedly filmed over Hanano, Aleppo. At least one parachute is clearly visible:

We'd like to see multiple angles, just so we can compare it to other videos of planes being shot down. However, if confirmed, this is another sign of how weak Assad's air forces are becoming.

The Guardian and C.J. Chivers think so too.

Last August, Chivers wrote that Syria’s fleet of Mi-25 Hind-D attack helicopters, which numbered 36 at the start of the conflict, was insufficient to hold back the rebels.

He also cited estimates that only half the regime's helicopter fleet may be operational at any given time – "maintenance technicians are struggling to keep the machines aloft" – and that some of the original 36 helicopters have been cannibalised for spare parts.

That was late August --- but Assad is now losing helicopters and airplanes at a rate of one to two per day.

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Wednesday
Oct172012

Libya Report: Militias "Massacred" Qaddafi and His Loyalists (Human Rights Watch)


Human Rights Watch has published a 50-page report, "Death of a Dictator: Bloody Vengeance in Sirte", which charges Misurata-based militias with the apparent execution of dozens of detainees, including former Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi, in Sirte in October 2011.

HRW claims the militias captured and disarmed members of the Qaddafi convoy. They brutally beat the men and executed at least 66 of them at the nearby Mahari Hotel. The organisation alleges that militias took Qaddafi’s wounded son Mutassim from Sirte to Misrata and killed him there.

Among the new evidence is a mobile phone video, filmed by opposition militia members, that shows the abuse of captured convoy members. At least 17 of the detainees in the video were later executed at the Mahari Hotel.

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Wednesday
Oct172012

US Politics Video: The 2nd Obama-Romney Debate

Lee Haddigan and I will be posting a special analysis later today of the Town Hall Meeting debate between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney.

In the meantime, here is the full 90 minutes. A transcript is available via The Washington Post.

Tuesday
Oct162012

US Politics Audio: Cuban Missile Crisis 1962, Presidential Campaign 2012 --- Scott Lucas with the BBC

I spoke with BBC Radio West Midlands this afternoon, on the 50th anniversary of the start of the Cuban Missile Crisis, about the episode and what lessons it might offer for the Presidential candidates as they debate foreign policy in 2012.

The discussion begins at the 1:19:30 mark.

Tuesday
Oct162012

The Latest from Iran (16 October): "Currency Market Disruptors Will Be Executed"

See also Iran Feature: The Week in Civil Society --- Another Day Older and Deeper in Debt
Iran Audio Feature: Nuclear Talks and Scare Stories --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24
The Latest from Iran (15 October): European Union Announces More Sanctions


2257 GMT: Economy Watch. Shoe producers gathered in front of Parliament today to protest against the high prices they pay for material, as "people do not buy expensive shoes".

2250 GMT: Currency Watch. Baztab claims that the Rial, when foreign exchange is offered, is trading at 37000:1 vs. the US dollar, a fall of about 7% from Monday.

The website also claims that the cost of old gold coin has risen to 14.4 million Rials.

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Tuesday
Oct162012

Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: UN Envoy Brahimi Moves Through the Region

A regime fighter jet is downed outside Aleppo on Monday

See also Syria Analysis: Assessing The Significance of the Salafists in the Insurgency
Monday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: On a "Quiet" Sunday, 220 People Die


1923 GMT: Syria. British police have arrested a man at Heathrow airport and and charged him with helping to kidnap western journalists inside Syria.

Dutch photographer Jeroen Oerlemans and British colleague John Cantlie were taken hostage on July 17 while working near the Syrian border with Turkey, and were released on July 26.

A police statement named the charged man as 26-year-old Shajul Islam. He was arrested on Oct. 9 with a woman of the same age as part of an investigation into travel to Syria in support of "alleged terrorist activity".. .The woman was released on Tuesday without charge, the statement said. A police spokesman said both were British nationals.

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Tuesday
Oct162012

Syria Analysis: Assessing The Significance of the Salafists in the Insurgency (International Crisis Group)

Syrian and Lebanese Salafists in a protest in Beirut, 14 October 2012 (Photo: Jamal Saidi/Reuters)


From day one, the question of Salafism within opposition ranks has been more of a political football than a subject of serious conversation. Assad backers played it up, convinced they could frighten both the country’s own non=-Islamists and minorities as well as the West, still traumatised by its misadventure in Iraq. Regime detractors played it down, intent on preserving the image of a pristine uprising; people sympathetic to their cause, whether in the media or elsewhere, likewise were reluctant to delve too deeply into the issue, anxious about playing into regime hands. The net result has been more fog than light.

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