Iran Feature: The Political Propaganda Around An Analysis --- "Economy Is Not on the Verge of Collapse"

Tehran Currency Market, 2 Oct 2012A very interesting media development, as Khabar Online uses its English-language website in an attempt to give the "right" view of the currency crisis....

The website reprints an article, originally published by the American site LobeLog, in which US-based economist Djavad Salehi-Isfahani pronounces, "Understanding the Rial's Freefall: Iran’s Economy is Not on the Verge of Collapse".

Salehi-Isfahani is a prominent analyst, but this piece should be read more as a political intervention than as an accurate critique of the economic situation.

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Iran 1st-Hand: Life in the Time of a Currency Collapse (Erdbrink)

In the Iranian capital, all anyone can talk about is the rial, and how lives have been turned upside down in one terrible week. Every elevator ride, office visit or quick run to the supermarket brings new gossip about the currency’s drop and a swirl of speculation about who is to blame.

“Better buy now,” one rice seller advised Abbas Sharabi, a retired factory guard, who had decided to buy 900 pounds of Iran’s most basic staple in order to feed his extended family for a year.

“As I was gathering my money, the man received a phone call,” said Mr. Sharabi, smoking cigarette after cigarette on Thursday while waiting for a bus. “When he hung up he told me prices had just gone up by 10 percent. Of course I paid. God knows how much it will cost tomorrow.”

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EA Video Analysis: Iran --- The Currency Collapse, The Closing of the Bazaar, and Wednesday's Protests

The latest EA "Window on the World" explains Wednesday's dramatic turn of events in Iran --- from the decline of the currency to the closure of the Tehran Bazaar to the first significant public protests in the capital in 18 months --- examining the economic and political situation to assess what might happen next:

US Elections Video: The 1st Obama-Romney Debate

See also US Politics Snap Analysis: Why Mitt Romney "Won" The 1st Debate with President Obama

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The Latest from Iran (4 October): Protest Resurfaces --- A Ripple or a Wave?

Footage from Wednesday's closure of the Tehran Bazaar and nearby protests

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2051 GMT: Currency All-is-Well Alert. Mohammad Keshti-Aray, the head of the Gold-Sellers Union, has said that the Rial strengthened to 30000:1 to 31000:1 vs. the US dollar --- Tuesday's rate, the last posted on leading website, was 35500:1 --- and that the price for gold coin is down as well.

Keshti-Aray assured that dollar and gold rates would be "clarified" on Saturday,

2047 GMT: Loyalty Watch. Prominent conservative politician Habiballah Asgarouladi has said that "fitna" (sedition) and the "deviant current" do not accept national unity, which is possible only around the Supreme Leader.

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US Politics Snap Analysis: Why Mitt Romney "Won" The 1st Debate with President Obama

See also US Elections Video: The 1st Obama-Romney Debate

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Photo: ReutersMitt Romney appeared more committed and convincing when explaining his solutions to America's economic woes. Those ideas may appear to be nothing more than wishful thinking when the answers are dissected, but the perception Romney gave was that he has a coherent plan to restore US fortunes. The bottom line to take from the debates was that Mitt Romney appeared Presidential; the actual president less so.

Will that be enough to shift the polls in Romney's favour?

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Iran Snapshot: A Currency's Fall, Bazaar Closed, Protests....

Claimed footage of Wednesday's protests near the Tehran Bazaar: "Bazaaris, support, support, support us!"

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Some Iranian media posted brief reports of events --- Mehr, for example,wrote about closure of the Bazaar and clashes with police, with arrests around the Bazaar and nearby streets and squares.  Further confirmation came, even as outlets offered contradictory signals about how to cope with the events. "Hard-line" sites such as Raja News played up the threat of "hooligans". Initially, the head of the Bazaar's guilds tried to play down the incident of "closed shops because of unknown elements" and said that most merchants had operated as normal; a later declaration, however, a later declaration gave up trying to minimise the situation: "Despite criticism of the government and President Ahmadinejad, we will defend the nezam (system) and the country with our lives."

As for the Government, already besieged by the economic situation and the collapsing currency, it issued the statement that a Cabinet meeting had agreed steps to control the currency market. No details were offered, however.

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Syria-Turkey Snap Analysis: Has President Assad Started a Military Conflict with Ankara?

Mortar fire from Assad troops lands in Alcakale, Turkey, killing 5

See also Wednesday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: A Double Bombing in Aleppo "Kills Dozens"

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UPDATED

Syrian forces, moving to retake a border crossing in Tal Abyad, north of Al Raqqah, fired mortar rounds on Wednesday into the heart of Alcakale, Turkey, landing in the center of the town. Five people were killed, including at least one child.

The outrage was immediate. By the end of the day, Turkey had invoked Article 4 of the NATO alliance, and NATO had released a statement condemning the Syrian regime's actions. Perhaps more importantly, Turkey scheduled an emergency meeting of Parliament where it is possible that, later this morning, President Erdogan will be granted permission to engage Turkish armed forces in the defence of the border.

Is Turkey bluffing?

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Syria, Turkey (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Erdogan's Red Line

See also Wednesday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: A Double Bombing in Aleppo "Kills Dozens"
Syria-Turkey Snap Analysis:: Has President Assad Started a Military Conflict with Ankara?

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2040 GMT: Syria. By the end of the day, 113 people have died, according to the Local Coordination Committees (that number may rise overnight):

48 martyrs were reported in Damascus and its Suburbs, 33 in Aleppo, 11 in Homs, 9 in Deir Ezzor, 5 in Hama,3 in Lattakia, 3 in Daraa and 1 in Qunaitera.

See our note on the casualty figures put forth by the LCC.

But in Syria the story is not always about death. Each Friday brings with it a reminder of how this all started - a government crackdown against a peaceful protest movement dedicated to democratic and secular change. Every Friday, tens of thousands of Syrians, in hundreds of rallies, take to the streets, braving the artillery and bullet fire to protest against the Assad government.

And as this crowd in Hamoriyeh, Damascus, reminds us, the protests often start at sundown on Thursday:

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The Latest from Iran (3 October): Blaming the "Enemy" for the Economy

The Tehran Bazaar today, with most shops closed and shuttered

See also Iran Feature: A Beginner's Guide to the Currency Crisis
Iran Snap Analysis: Ahmadinejad and The Economy's "Worthless Pieces of Paper"
The Latest from Iran (2 October): A Currency in Free Fall?

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1902 GMT: More photos show that some of the crowds clearly turned to riots:

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