Syria Snap Analysis: Latest on the "Chemical Weapon" Attacks

Two competing stories have featured in the last 48 hours over Tuesday's "chemical attacks" near Aleppo and Damascus. The first is a statement posted yesterday from the Syrian opposition in which they claim that Echothiophate, a chemical often found in insecticides, was used in both incidents, having been delivered by a Scud missile.

The second narrative, from US officials, is that there was no chemical weapons attack.

Echothiophate is an organophosphate. According to a physician contacted by EA, its effects match some of the symptoms reported from a doctor in Damascus, including bradycardia, vasodilation, nausea and vomiting, and bronchoconstriction. It is a slower-acting compound than some other nerve agents, like Sarin. It is unclear if there are additional symptoms, like involuntary muscle movements, that have been seen in these videos.

Some have suggested that the chemical smells like "rotten cabbage." That is important because people in the Damascus atttack reported a strong odour, albeit one like chlorine.

Here's the video, with English subtitles, where the doctor in Damascus reports that an organophosphate has been used:

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EA Video Analysis: Iraq, 10 Years Later --- 5 Points About the "Intelligence" Factor

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Extracts from an interview with Steve Hewitt, one of the world's top specialists on intellilgence services and counter-terrorism, about "intelligence" and the 2003 Iraq War:

1. Is "Intelligence" Important?
2. Did Intelligence Services, Before the War, Have A Good Sense About Iraq and WMDs?
3. Did Politicians Manipulate the Intelligence to Declare that Saddam Had WMDs?
4. Was the Truth Deliberately Distorted?
5. Could Intelligence Be Used This Way Again, to Take Us Into Military Conflict?

The full interview will be posted over the weekend.

Syria Live Coverage: Damascus Suicide Bomb Kills 42, Including Top Cleric

2022 GMT: Evening Protests. In Al Raqqah, the regime is rapidly fading into memory as protesters take to the streets tonight:

1955 GMT: Rebels Advance in Aleppo. The rebels are successfully pushing deeper and deeper into southern and western Aleppo. Rebels have now captured an important mosque in the Saleh el Dine district (map). Videos showed the rebels capturing ammunition that was apparently stored inside the mosque by nearby fighters.

Below is a playlist of several videos showing rebel fighters advancing in Saleh el Dine and elsewhere today:

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Israel Video and Analysis: President Obama's Speech in Jerusalem

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President Obama spoke in Jerusalem, to a largely-student audience, on Thursday.

Perhaps in line with my cynicism about any substance on this trip to Israel and Palestine, I was not moved as I heard the speech. But perhaps I am being harsh --- many others saw this as a forthright speech, asking the Israeli people to press their leaders for movement on the Palestine issued.

In particular, this passage raised attention, as a sign that Obama will push the Israeli leadership to act on the Jewish settlements and military occupation that are blocking progress:

the Palestinian people’s right to self-determination and justice must also be recognized. Put yourself in their shoes – look at the world through their eyes. It is not fair that a Palestinian child cannot grow up in a state of her own, and lives with the presence of a foreign army that controls the movements of her parents every single day. It is not just when settler violence against Palestinians goes unpunished. It is not right to prevent Palestinians from farming their lands; to restrict a student’s ability to move around the West Bank; or to displace Palestinian families from their home. Neither occupation nor expulsion is the answer. Just as Israelis built a state in their homeland, Palestinians have a right to be a free people in their own land.

See full transcript of Obama speech

I am still withholding judgement. Attention to this section overlooks other parts of the Obama speech, including one which effectively told the Palestinians that they cannot press their case outside a US-supported "peace process". Signficantly, the President slapped down the successful Palestinian attempt to get Observer State recogntion at the UN: "The United States will oppose unilateral efforts to bypass negotiations through the United Nations."

Yet, at the same, time, Obama's Secretary of State John Kerry let it be known that Washington will not lead any attempt to revive that peace process.

So how will Obama's words be translated into meaningful action after he leaves Israel and Palestine today?

Iran Live Coverage: Supreme Leader Strikes a Defiant Pose

See also Iran Live Coverage: Supreme Leader Announces a "Political and Economic Epic"

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1255 GMT:Your Friday Prayers Update. Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami had the podium today and he used it for a jab at President Ahmadinejad.

Commenting on the upcoming Presidential elections, Khatami said officials must observe "Islamic ethics" and avoid misuse of authority during the process.

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When selecting candidates, national and public interests were preferable to factional ones, Khatami added. "Whoever wants to be president of his country should be at the forefront of ethics,"

Khatami said that candidates must not use public funds.

"None of the three branches of the Islamic government should encourage or support a particular candidate," he added.

In contrast, Fars News English focuses its attention on rhetoric about “Arrogant Powers” and Syria.

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Iran Live Coverage: Supreme Leader Announces a "Political and Economic Epic"

The Supreme Leader's Nowruz address on Wednesday

See also Iran Non-Story of The Day: Tehran Has a Plutonium Reactor!

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1525 GMT: Campus Watch. The political argument over President Ahmadinejad's attempt to remove four heads of prominent universities continues....

Asr-e Iran claims that Minister of Science Kamran Daneshjoo has resisted the order, raising questions about Ahmadinejad's next step.

The Student Basij Organization has condemned Ahmadinejad's attempt to replace the head of Tehran University.

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Turkey Feature: PKK Leader Ocalan, Moving Towards Peace, Calls on Fighters to Leave Country (Hurriyet)

PM Erdogan & PKK head Ocalan

Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) leader Abdullah Öcalan has called on armed militants to leave Turkish soil in a historic message read out by the Peace and Democracy Party (BDP) deputy Pervin Buldan and Sırrı Süreyya Önder in Kurdish and Turkish.

“We are at a point today that guns will be silenced and thoughts will speak. It is time for armed elements to move outside [Turkey’s] borders. This is not an ending but a new beginning,”

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Iran Non-Story of The Day: Tehran Has a Plutonium Reactor!

Iran's heavy-water reactor at Arak --- still not an imminent threat to humanity

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George Jahn of The Associated Press believes he has a dramatic exclusive this morning:

While international diplomacy has focused on trying to prevent Iran from using enriched uranium to produce nuclear arms, concern is growing about another rapidly advancing project that could supply plutonium for a nuclear weapon....

The United States and its allies worry about the plutonium reactor at Arak, southwest of Tehran. U.S. envoy Joseph Macmanus told a recent meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency — the U.N. nuclear watchdog — that the reactor is "of increasing concern" as its startup date approaches. Israel, which has taken a lead in criticizing Iran's nuclear program, is even more concerned.

Only one problem: the story is old, having been pushed by unnamed "Western officials" last month.

Make that two problems: it is not much of a story.

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EA Video Analysis: What Does Obama Visit to Israel and Palestine Mean? (Very Little.)

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A five-minute forecast, filmed just before President Obama arrived in West Jerusalem, of his visit to Israel and Palestine....

So far I think I've got it right: "President Obama will not have the political will --- I might even say courage --- to do anything significant."

But there is more:

There will be very little said because the fact of the matter is that the US is no longer at the centre of these Middle East questions. The US is no longer the power that can wave a magic wand or carry out shuttle diplomacy. ...

The Israeli leaaderhip will do what it wishes to do while hoping that Washington is alongside, but not necessarily depending on it. The Palestinians will try to persist and obtain a meaningful State, even if that is a halting process, whether or not Washington supports that.

Israel, Palestine (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Obama Visits West Bank

President Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on Wednesday

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1331 GMT:Palestine. President Obama's statement on Jewish settlements today, as he stood beside Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas:

One of the challenges [to the resumption of negotiations] has been continued settlement activity in the West Bank area. I've been clear with prime minster Netanyahu...that we do not consider continued settlement activity to be constructive, to be appropriate, to be something that can advance the cause of peace.

Asked about the Israeli-backed plan for settlements in the E1 area in the West Bank near Jerusalem, Obama said:

I think that is an example of a public statement by the Israeli government that would be very difficult to square with a two-state solution. And I've said that to prime minster Netanyahu. I don't think that's a secret.

However, Obama declared that the West Bank leadership should not demand a freeze on settlement before resuming discussions with Israel:

What I shared with President Abbas is that if the expectation is that we can only have direct negotiations when everything is settled ahead of time then there is no point for negotiations. It is important to work through this process even if there are irritants on both sides. The Israeli have concerns about rockets firing into their cities last night....

Even though may have areas of strong disagreement maybe engaging in activities that the other side considers to be a breach of good faith, we have to push through those things.

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