Iran Election Guide

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Friday
Apr292011

Iran Special: 5-Point Guide to Ahmadinejad v. Supreme Leader --- What Caused It, What It Means, and What Will Happen

1. IS THIS SERIOUS?

Yes --- as an Iran-based EA correspondent summarised, "It is more than cosmetic and it is more than a minor spat."

For confirmation, look at the signals from all sides. The President's disappearance since last week is more than a "sulk": with his failure to attend meetings of the Cabinet as well as other important bodies like the Supreme Council of the Cultural Revolution, he is effectively boycotting government with his colleagues.

The Supreme Leader staked out his position, first in a letter (leaked to supportive media) and then with a public statement, that he would not accept the forced "resignation" of the Minister of Intelligence, Heydar Moslehi. The Ministry would remain in his domain, not Ahmadinejad's.

And others around and linked to the two sides have staked out serious positions. Clerics, politicians, and officials have supported the Supreme Leader or the Government --- usually the former --- and there have been threats that Ahmadinejad could meet the fate of Iran's first President, Abolhassan Bani-Sadr, who was forced from office and barely escaped with his life in 1981.

Click to read more ...

Friday
Apr292011

Syria, Libya (and Beyond): Shutting Down Protest?

Syrian Protest, 22 April 20111835 GMT: The Government of Bahrain has blocked one of its own websites, the homepage of the Jaffaria Waqf (Endowments) Directorate.

The Directorate was established in 1927 as an independent organization and reports to the Minister of Justice and Islamic Affairs. The activities of the Directorate focus mainly on the supervision of 724 mosques and 632 Matams (congregation halls).

An activist speculates the site may have been blocked because it referred to the recent destruction of dozens of mosques by authorities, who claim they were unlicenced.

Click to read more ...

Friday
Apr292011

Latest Syria Videos: The Protests After the Occupations

Below are videos from today's protests in Syria. They will be updated regularly. For the latest news there, turn to our Syria, Libya (and Beyond) LiveBlog: Shutting Down Protest?

Tanks and soldiers attacking Shaykh Miskeen in Hauran

Click to read more ...

Friday
Apr292011

Britain Royal Wedding: The Stunning URL to Honour the Kate Middleton Jelly Bean Story

Wow, we were so busy covering Syria, Libya, Yemen, Iran, and beyond that we totally forgot that there was a royal wedding today. To make up for it, we're reposting our finest piece on the subject. Enjoy!

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Friday
Apr292011

EA on the Road: A Conference on the CIA

I will be in Nottingham in Britain's East Midlands on Friday and Saturday for the "Landscapes of Secrecy" conference on the CIA.

EA staff will be holding the fort here, but updates on the LiveBlogs on Iran and on Syria, Libya, & Beyond may be limited during the day. As always, thanks in advance to readers for bringing in news and ideas through the Comments section on the entries.

And we've got three top features for you today: Ali Yenidunya assesses the reconciliation deal between the Palestinian factions Fatah and Hamas, James Miller considers how General David Petraeus as head of the CIA may shape the US approach to pro-democracy movements, and Scott Lucas offers a 5-point guide to the dispute between Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the Supreme Leader.

Friday
Apr292011

US Analysis: What General Petraeus' Move to CIA Means for Pro-Democracy Movements

Expect Petraeus to use his new position to build bridges with pro-democracy movements, and expect the US to back more opposition movements soon. Because if there is one thing that the Arab Spring has taught us, it's that the only certainty right now is that the people have all the power. Petraeus understands this, he's built his career on the concept, and I predict that this is exactly what Obama is counting on him to do as Director of the Central Intelligence Agency.

Click to read more ...

Friday
Apr292011

Israel-Palestine Special: So What's the Deal Between Hamas and Fatah?

The rival Palestinian groups Fatah and Hamas have reportedly reached an agreement, brokered by Egypt,  to end their rift and that between the West Bank and Gaza. 

The two sides have been in a series of talks in the last few years, climaxing when Fatah signed a reconciliation deal in 2009. Hamas had reservations, however, over the arrangement for security forces in the Gaza Strip and the lack of a guarantee that its victory in elections would be recognised. Hamas demanded further gestures before considering unity, such as a release of hundreds of it prisoners locked up in the West Bank, the re-opening of Hamas charities, and the removal of a ban on its activities in the West Bank.

So why an agreement now? 

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Friday
Apr292011

The Latest from Iran (29 April): "We Will Destroy You"

1340 GMT: Your Tehran Friday Prayer Summary (Ahmadinejad Watch Edition). Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami takes the podium and has a straightforward message: "Enemies want to convey that there are differences in Iran, and media who follow them inflame the situation."

Khatami made no direct reference to the dispute over President Ahmadinejad's forced "resignation", later rescinded by the Supreme Leader. of Minister of Intelligence Heydar Moslehi (see separate analysis).

However, Khatami had this message: "The President should know that the majority vote for him was not absolute but conditional on his obedience towards the orders by the Supreme Leadership. The top of the system is the constitution, which has clarified the power structure."

Click to read more ...

Thursday
Apr282011

Syria, Libya (and Beyond) LiveBlog: Occupation

2110 GMT: Witnesses and an activist report that two divisions of the Syrian army clashed with each other on Monday as the military occupied the southern town of Daraa.

Battalions of the 5th Division reportedly were trying to protect civilians and clashed with battalions of the 4th Division, commanded the President's brother, Maher al-Assad.

The battle reportedly lasted for several hours.

2100 GMT: Two photos from a protest today in Nawa, near the occupied town of Daraa in southern Syria. Posters include "80,000 people are under siege for five days, No water, no food, no electricity, no communications" and "No water, no medicine, no food":

Click to read more ...

Thursday
Apr282011

Iran Breaking: Larijani Issues the "Bani Sadr Warning" to Ahmadinejad

1350 GMT: Larijani Issues the Bani Sadr Warning to Ahmadinejad. Wow...

Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has issued a statement, headlined by the website linked to him, Khabar Online, that the Supreme Leader's pre-eminent role in the Iranian system is "undeniable".

That's not the Wow part. This is: Larijani spent some time detailing the perfidy of Iran's 1st President, Abolhassan Bani-Sadr, who "tried to put himself in front" of the Islamic Revolution and "tried to create conflict and tension among the masses to distract from the [Iran-Iraq] war" before he was forced from power in 1981.

That Bani-Sadr reference has also been made this week in attacks on the Government --- by Hojatoleslam Shojouni, Secretary of the Friday Prayer Leaders committee, and by Assembly of Experts member Seyyed Ali Akbar Gharebaghi.

And, for historical reference, it was made in a letter from former President Hashemi Rafsanjani to the Supreme Leader just before the 2009 Presidential election.