The Latest from Iran (1 March): In Prison...And On the Streets?

2050 GMT: Deutsche Welle carries this account from a participant in the protest in Tehran (translation by Tehran Bureau):

The number of security forces today in Tehran was higher than February 14 and 20. There were a lot of plainclothesmen. The security forces hit the protesters hard in an attack at Vali Asr Crossroads and closed off the area. They fired a few shots in the air and the crowd dispersed.

We waited for half an hour in one of the side streets of Vali Asr and then exited with a few others. In the dark and cold, we started walking toward Enghelab and Azadi Squares. The entire crowd were walking toward the west on the sidewalks, but there were a lot of plainclothesmen among the people....Every now and then, security forces would politely take someone aside and check their camera, cell phone, bag, or wallet and then take a picture. I could see people on scaffolds, taking people's pictures from a wide angle after a minute's pause.

Right before Navab Avenue, the crowd got denser and security forces moved to disperse them. People quickly turned down side streets. Some said there were clashes on Navab and they don't want people to get there. We went toward Tohid like the other times. Then, we went toward Azadi and saw that people were moving away from the avenue because there were clashes down there. People were being attacked by security forces and plainclothesmen....

Security forces had brutally attacked protesters. Some people told us they had fired shots in the air repeatedly.

I can't say how many people were there. But I can tell you that half the people on the sidewalks were security forces and Basij.

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US Politics: A Beginner's Guide to Reducing the Federal Government's Debt

This report issues a stark warning, supported by every member of the Deficit Reduction Commission, "The era of debt denial is over, and there can be no turning back. We sign our names to this plan because we love our children, our grandchildren, and our country too much not to act while we still have the chance to secure a better future for our fellow citizens." And the Preamble emphasises the Commission's belief that the American public are ready to discuss long-term fiscal solutions, as long as they feel that everyone is sharing in the pain. The report notes that; “In the weeks and months to come, countless advocacy groups and special interests will try mightily through expensive, dramatic, and heart-wrenching media assaults to exempt themselves from shared sacrifice and common purpose,” but stresses that. “The national interest, not special interests, must prevail."

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The Real Net Effect: Social Media 1st-Hand from Tunisia to Egypt to.... (Beaumont)

>"Social media was absolutely crucial [in Tunisia]. Three months before Mohammed Bouazizi burned himself in Sidi Bouzid we had a similar case in Monastir. But no one knew about it because it was not filmed. What made a difference this time is that the images of Bouazizi were put on Facebook and everybody saw it."

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Iran Keepsake: A Commemorative Poster of the Political Prisoners

A new poster featuring the pictures of Iran's political prisoners, including recent detainees Mir Hossein Mousavi (second row, right), his wife Zahra Rahnavard (top row, right), and Fatemeh and Mehdi Karroubi (top and second rows, second from right):

Egypt Feature: Why the US Missed the Rise of the Uprising (Hurd)

Elizabeth Shakman Hurd writes for Muftah:

Long before the recent upheavals in Egypt, there were hints that change in the country was in the works.

In August 2009, Michael Slackman of The New York Times published an article entitled “Hints of Pluralism in Egyptian Religious Debates”, in which he discussed how the internet had allowed for the widespread circulation within Egyptian media of the views of Gamal al-Banna, the 88 year-old brother of Muslim Brotherhood founder Hassan al-Banna. Gamal al-Banna is known for his unconventional, some would say even “liberal”—though these terms are unhelpful—views on Islam. According to Slackman, many Egyptian religious authorities, including Sheik Omar el Deeb of Al Azhar University, had rejected al-Banna’s views, describing them as “outside the scope of religion". Analyzing the relative openings for public discussion of al-Banna’s controversial opinions, Slackman suggested that several factors had contributed to this new atmosphere of openness, including a general disillusionment amongst Egyptians towards radical ideologies, such as those of Al Qaeda, as well as President Obama’s outreach to Egypt and the Muslim world in his June 2009 speech in Cairo, which undercut accusations of a U.S. war against Islam. Citing “Egyptian political analysts”, Slackman concluded that these developments had made it “easier for liberal Muslims to promote more Western secular ideas.”

In light of recent events, what is to be made of this idea of “liberal Muslims promoting Western secular ideas”? In fact, the ideological baggage that this notion carries helps to explain why the United States failed to see the changes now happening in Egypt. Though the events of the past few weeks cannot be subsumed under this secular versus Islamist rubric, Slackman’s attempt to reduce Egyptian society to this simplistic view did just that, illuminating a mindset prevalent within the United States that prevented the government from seeing the Egyptian revolution from a mile away.

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Libya (and Beyond) LiveBlog: Holding the Lines

2115 GMT: Brigadier General Mansour Mohammed Abu Hajar, head of the Libyan Army's armoured vehicles and infantry division in Benghazi, said this afternoon that he and the division's personnel had joined the opposition: "[We] announce our joining of this blessed revolution, which we hope God Almighty will grant success and victory. We denounce the killing and the extermination of defenceless youths by the security brigades and hired mercenaries. I and all the division's personnel put ourselves at the disposal of this glorious revolution."

2110 GMT: In Yemen, tens of thousands of people have marched on the streets of the capital Sanaa, demanding the fall of the President Ali Abullah Saleh.

Saleh had asked on Monday for discussions for a new unity government, but he later turned from conciliation to allegation, warning that Yemen could be split into four parts and accusing the US and Israel of being behind the protests.

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Egypt Special: The 7 Best Helmets of the Revolution

You might be in an uprising against the regime, but you do not have to give up your fashion sense. Seven of the best headgear among Egypt's protesters (hat tip to "Henry_Kissinger" and EA's German Bureau):

7. The classic 1979 "Tribottle Rag™" Helmet

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Iran Analysis: The Regime Arrests Mousavi and Karroubi in the Race Between Fear and Hope

It was going to happen. For the past 20 months, not a day has gone by without the opposition voicing the fear that the Green Movement’s two leading figures would be arrested. Now those concerns have been borne out, as Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, along with their wives and political activists Zahra Rahnavard and Fatemeh Karroubi, were detained. But whether they were arrested now or 20 months ago makes little difference.

The two men, holed up in their homes and guarded by security forces, already had very little freedom of movement; they have effectively been under house arrest for the past several months. So there is no shock in their transfer to a house of detention, run by the Ministry of Intelligence and/or the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. Instead, the significance lies elsewhere, as an indication of how the political situation has changed on the ground in Iran.

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Libya Video: Qaddafi's Son Rallies the Troops

Footage of Saif Al Islam Qaddafi, the son of the Libyan leader, speaking to troops. Translation from an opposition website:

Saif: Wait my brothers, we are busy, but I came here specifically. Everyone, morale needs to be up high!

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The Latest from Iran (28 February): The Regime's Escalation

2030 GMT: Not the Same. Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi has told journalists in Geneva, "There is absolutely no comparison between what is happening in the countries in the region and what has happened in Iran in a few incidents." He declared that Iran had only experienced a few "manipulated protests, while mass movements in the nations in the region are authentic, popular and people's movements".

Salehi said his government was "shocked" by Libyan leader Moammar Qaddafi's resort to force against civilians and hoped that "the power is transferred through legal means to the people".

2025 GMT: The Arrests. Zahra Eshraghi, human rights activist and granddaughter of Ayatollah Khomeini, has written on her Facebook page, "If Mousavi and Karroubi and their followers are anti-revolutionary, the Imam Khomeini must be as well."

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