Turkey Analysis: A Big Opportunity? Ankara's Talks with Imprisoned Kurdish Leader Ocalan

PM Erdogan & PKK Leader OcalanSo Turkish authorities have been speaking with the imprisoned leader of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), Abdullah Ocalan, since last month. Indeed, the head of the National Intelligence Organisation (MIT), Hakan Fidan, visited Ocalan in his Imrali Island prison --- where he has been kept since 1999 --- for two days of one-to-one meetings. This was followed by the Erdogan Government’s high-profile if vague statements of a peaceful settlement on the Kurdish issue and by the dispatch of two experienced MPs from pro-Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party (BDP), to Imrali.

This is not the first occurrence of negotiations with Ocalan and the PKK --- two years ago, the MIT was involved in a series of meetings in Oslo. There are key differences in the recent talks, however.

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Europe Analysis: Russia and Britain --- Becoming Best Friends?

Given all the tensions between Russia and Britain, how can there be a thaw in the frozen diplomatic relations?

The answer is simple.

Gas --- and the company BP.

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Syria Audio Analysis: Swapping 2130 Civilian Prisoners for 48 Iranian "Pilgrims" --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24

Some of the released Iranians at a Damascus hotel today

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I spoke this evening with Monocle 24's Midori House about the surprising news of the release of 2130 civilians in Syrian jails in exchange for the freeing of 48 Iranian men held by insurgents.

While information is still sketchy on the motives for the deal, we discussed the possible calculations of the insurgents and the regime --- look, in particular, to President Assad trying to hold on to Iranian backing --- and to the possible consequences: will today's development bring any significant change in the political and military situation? (Probably not.)

The item begins at the 4:58 mark. My contribution starts at 7:26.

Syria Live Coverage: A Mass Killing in Idlib Province?

2308 GMT: Summary - The LCC summarizes today's events:

By the end of Wednesday the LCC managed to document 92 martyrs (including 9 children and 4 women), 29 martyrs were reported in Damascus and its Suburbs, 27 martyrs in Aleppo, 14 martyrs in Hama, 7 martyrs in Idlib, 8 martyrs in Homs, 4 martyrs in Daraa and 3 martyrs in Deir Ezzor

The LCC also documented 180 points of shelling, 2 points were shelled by warplanes, Cluster Bombs were used in Teftenaz and Omar Oil Field in Deir Ezzor, 86 points were shelled by artillery (the fiercest was reported in Damascus Suburbs), 51 points by missiles and 42 points by mortars

The FSA clashed with the regime forces in 77 locations (the fiercest among them was reported in Damascus Suburbs, Idlib and Aleppo), the FSA stormed several buildings in Teftenaz Military Airport and targeted its main building, the FSA blocked many attmepts by the regime forces to storm Daraya, Mouadamiya in Damascus Suburbs and Basr Al-Harir in Daraa

The FSA also targeted Saman checkpoint in Taibat Al-Imam in Hama and destroyed several military vehicles in different parts of Syria

See our note on the information published by the LCC.

2208 GMT: Images of the Mastoomeh Massacre - The first video claiming to show some of the bodies of those killed in Mastoomeh has surfaced...

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Iran Live Coverage: Please Vote (P.S. --- We Did Not Rig the Last Election)

See also Syria and Iran Feature: 2130 Civilian Prisoners To Be Released in Exchange for 48 Iranian "Pilgrims"
Iran Audio Feature: How Serious is the Oil Crisis? --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24
Tuesday's Iran Live Coverage: The Regime Admits the Oil Squeeze

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2055 GMT: Engineering Elections Watch. Back to our opening story....

The Supreme Leader's representative, Ali Saeedi, may have set off a political storm with his remark that it is the duty of the Revolutionary Guards to "engineer" the elections --- even if the Guards tried to soften that comment by saying it referred only to ensuring security for the vote.

That's because President Ahmadinejad chose to run with the possibility of inappropriate intervention by the Guards: "Whoever wants to manage people's votes will be managed by the people."

A Guards spokesman responded that the President's remark was "astonishing".

1955 GMT: The House Arrests. Leading conservative politician Habibollah Asgarouladi has pulled back on his recent statements that detained opposition leaders Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi are not "seditionists".

Asgarouladi had said that the problem was that Mousavi and Karroubi were surrounded by seditious elements, but he told Mehr, in an interview published today, "I never said [they] are not seditionists, I said they are not at the top of the sedition."

Asgarouladi continued, "I've said clearly that they stood against the establishment and the people, and they have to be held responsible."

The politician's initial comments raised speculation that the regime might lift the 23-month house arrests of Mousavi and Karroubi, both candidates in the disputed 2009 Presidential election.

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Syria and Iran Feature: 2130 Civilian Prisoners To Be Released in Exchange for 48 Iranian "Pilgrims"

UPDATE 1230 GMT: A photograph of the freed Iranians:

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Turkey's State news agency Anatolia reports that Syria will release 2130 civilian prisoners, including "many Turkish nationals", in exchange for 48 Iranian men seized by the Syrian opposition last August.

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Iraq (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Protests Close Border with Jordan

See also Syria Live Coverage: A Mass Killing in Idlib Province?
Tuesday's Bahrain (and Beyond) Live Coverage: The Regime Shuts Away Its Political Prisoners

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Protest in Anbar Province Last Week1925 GMT: Libya. Four people have been killed, in clashes between Toubou tribesmen and a brigade linked to the Libyan army, in the southern town of Kufra.

A military spokesman claimed the Shield Libya brigade intervened "to prevent student casualties" after a skirmish between Toubou and Zwai tribesmen escalated inside Kufra University.

Local authorities ordered that the university, which is in a Toubou area, shut for two days until order is restored.

A tribal chief called on "the army to secure Kufra, and not a group of civilian revolutionaries who have no military principles".

Kufra, a town of about 40,000 people, is located in a triangle where the borders of Egypt, Chad. and Sudan meet. Fighting last February claimed more than 130 lives and displaced half the population. Last June, 47 people were killed and more than 100 wounded.

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US Politics Feature: Explaining the Next Fiscal Crisis...Coming To You in 6 Weeks

(Cartoon: Monte Wolverton)

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After the recent drama and supposed escape from the "fiscal cliff", two developing stories in Washington will affect the global economy. The first is whether Congress can pass measures to address three additional fiscal dilemmas, all of which need to be resolved by the end of March. The second, a vital sub-plot in the larger play, is the intentions and aims of the Republican-controlled House of Representatives.

Near the end of February, the US Treasury will have exhausted all contingency measures to avoid breaching the debt limit, currently $16.4 trillion, and the US will immediately default on 40% of its fiscal obligations. America could still afford to pay foreign debts through its continual receipts of tax revenues. It could even fund Social Security and other low-income payment programs...provided it is willing to make cuts such as the closure of the FBI.

As the talks on raising the debt limit reach the status of Urgent, Congress will also have to address the "sequestration cuts", delayed for two months by the fiscal cliff deal.

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Iran Audio Feature: How Serious is the Oil Crisis? --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24

Following the Iranian Minister of Oil's admission that oil exports fell 40% between March and December, I spoke with Monocle 24's The Briefing about the economic situation and the political consequences: could this crisis lead to the fall of the regime?

The discussion starts at the 11:16 mark.

Bahrain (and Beyond) Live Coverage: The Regime Shuts Away Its Political Prisoners

See also Syria Live Coverage: Has the Insurgent Advance Stalled?

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1900 GMT: Bahrain. The European Union has reacted to the regime's re-assertion of long prison sentences on 13 political prisoners with a call for their release. Spokesman Michael Mann said, "The EU has repeatedly asked the Bahraini authorities to consider an amnesty for all those arrested last year and tried on charges relating to the expression of their political opinion."

Mann said the European Union "fully respects the independence of the Bahraini judiciary" but "remains concerned about the lack of advancement of national reconciliation". He continued, "All sides should engage in a peaceful, inclusive and constructive dialogue, abstaining from all forms of violence and intimidation."

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