Palestine Analysis: A 6-Point Guide to the "Style and No Substance" of the UN Vote for Statehood

Mahmoud Abbas Addressing the UNThe upgrade in status at the UN will not be produce a two-state solution in weeks. Indeed, there is still no practical alternative to the reality before Palestine, with a political stalemate not only between Israel and the Palestinians but also between Gaza and the West Bank.

A 6-Point Guide....

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The Latest from Iran (30 November): An Economy in Confusion

1251 GMT: Foreign Affairs Watch (Syria). A bomb attack in Damascus has destroyed six vehicles,including an SNG truck, belonging to Press TV and al-Alam television networks in Damascus.

Press TV reports that the explosion, which occurred near its office in the Syrian capital, was caused by a man “caught on camera sticking something to a car” who escaped moments before the blast.

1235 GMT: All the President's Men. Esfandiar Sadeghi-Boroujerdi reports another flutter over whether President Ahmadinejad's controversial right-hand man, Esfandiar Rahim Mashai, is looking to succeed his boss in June 2013 elections.

Earlier this month, an alleged meeting between Rahim Mashai with an audience in Tehran, in which the aide said he would not be deterred from Presidential candidacy, was reported in Iranian media --- apparently from a leak by Rahim Mashai's opponents, as the Ahmadinejad Chief of Staff denied the reports.

Now, a Rahim Mashai speech in Kermanshah is the basis for an article in the pro-Ahmadinejad newspaper, “8 Solutions of Engineer Mashai for Solving the Historical Paradox (Revolution-Regime)". Rahim Mashai claimed that Ahmadinejad's achievements in the course of his Presidency are equivalent to the “entirety of contemporary history"; in contrast, there was almost no mention of the Supreme Leader.

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Syria Live Coverage: The Country Goes Dark as Internet Cut Off

A poster showing President Assad standing against the enemy militaries of the US, France, Britain, Turkey, and Arab States

See also Syria Analysis: A Threatened Regime Cuts the Internet
Palestine, Egypt (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Statehood for the Palestinians, A Constitution for Morsi
Thursday's Syria Live Coverage: Insurgents Take More Bases as Damascus Hit by Bombs

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2121 GMT: Today is Friday, and while the world is focused on battles and meetings and organizations and diplomatic recognitions, on Friday there is always another story. Every Friday since March 2011, protesters have taken to the streets in Syria. Even in towns where bombs fall and bullets fly, somewhere close by it is possible to find an anti-government protest somewhere in Syria.

Also, every Friday has a theme, agreed upon by activists ahead of time by voting on Facebook. Today's theme does not translate well into English, but according to Zilal, it means roughly "the sign of victory over the palace" or "The Fingers of Victory over the palace." The meaning is clear --- the opposition believes it is winning, and is close to grabbing control from President Assad.

There were interesting twists this week.

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Syria Analysis: A Threatened Regime Cuts the Internet

https://twitter.com/ZainSyr/status/274169034872868864/photo/1

Western Damascus burns - this photo reportedly take at around sunset on Thursday.

Syria Live Coverage: Insurgents Take More Bases as Damascus Hit by Bombs

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Why has the regime cut the internet? For a possible answer, one has to understand the duality of the insurgency.

The insurgency has many dimensions, but --- to oversimplify it --- two are notable. The first is what we see in Deir Ez Zor or Aleppo or Idlib Province --- a semi-functional military apparatus, either coordinated at the brigade level or on a larger scale. These units seek military victories, destroying the regime's resources and capturing bases, equipment, and territory. This element to the Free Syrian Army has been building for many months, and has not lost a battle since September. It has been advancing steadily since June; however, in recent weeks, this force has surged in a series of one-sided victories from Damascus to Aleppo, from al Raqqah to Deir ez Zor, and beyond.

But in Damascus in particular there has been a second dimension: while there is no place for a traditional military to hide, insurgents have been eating away at the Assad regime for months. Despite efforts to put them down, opposition fighters have been able to hit regime targets and then melt away into the civilian population operating very much like insurgents in Iraq or South Vietnam.

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Syria Live Coverage: Insurgents Take More Bases as Damascus Hit by Bombs

2047 GMT: According to the LCC, 93 people (including 21 children) have been killed across the country today:

51 martyrs were reported in Aleppo (most of them in a massacre in Zebdiya neighborhood); 15 in Damascus and its Suburbs; 8 in Daraa; 6 in Deir Ezzor; 5 in Idlib; 4 in Hama; 3 in Homs; and 1 in Raqqa.

See our note on the casualty figures published by the LCC.

2017 GMT: Syrians are finding many ways to communicate, even though the internet is down. Some have equipment, given to them by the US, that allows them to access the internet anyway. Some are relying on the some-what unreliable cell networks. Others are using dial-up internet connections. Yet others are using satellite uplinks.

Still others are using a technology that allows them to call a number which will tweet their voice message:

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Palestine, Egypt (and Beyond) Live Coverage: The UN Votes on Palestinian Statehood

2232 GMT: Bahrain British Foreign Office Minister Alistair Burt has met this week with opposition political society AlWefaq and the loyalist National Unity Assembly. In a statement, Burt offers little more than the normal UK line, although he specifically notes the recent stripping of citizenship. This is likely to become an increasing issue for the British government as it has not only impacted Bahrainis resident in London but also left two former AlWefaq MP's who were visiting the UK, stranded as stateless

We discussed the current situation in Bahrain one year on from the Independent Commission of Inquiry’s report and our shared concern at the recent bombings. I reiterated the UK’s support for the Declaration of Non-Violence that was launched earlier this month by Al Wefaq and five other political societies. It is an important confidence-building measure and I encourage other leaders in Bahrain to declare publicly their support for this initiative. Violent protests are unacceptable and we condemn them unequivocally.

We also discussed recent actions taken by the authorities, such as the ban on protests and the withdrawal of citizenship from 31 individuals. I made clear that the UK is concerned about such steps which undermine potential reconciliation and that the UK is urging the Government of Bahrain to do more to create the right environment for meaningful political dialogue. I therefore welcome the Government’s acceptance of a needs assessment team from the office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights next week to discuss this alongside follow-up to the recent Universal Periodic Review of Bahrain by the Human Rights Council in Geneva.

The British Under-Secretary of State for Defence Lord Astor will visit Bahrain next week for talks with leaders.

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The Latest from Iran (29 November): Regional Interventions

See also Iran Feature: The Regime's Food Problems
Iran Feature: The Week in Civil Society --- Hunger Strikes, Hungry Families, and Ending Violence Against Women
The Latest from Iran (28 November): Supreme Leader Declares, "We're Winning"

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2050 GMT: Nuclear Watch. The US has set a March deadline for Iran to fulfil the American vision of cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency, threatening referral of the matter to the United Nations Security Council.

Speaking to the IAEA board, American diplomat Robert Wood requested that IAEA Director-General Yukiya Amano declare in his next quarterly report on Iran, due in late February, whether Tehran has taken "any substantive steps" to address concerns.

Wood continued, "If by March Iran has not begun substantive cooperation with the IAEA, the United States will work with other board members to pursue appropriate board action, and would urge the board to consider reporting this lack of progress to the U.N. Security Council. Iran cannot be allowed to indefinitely ignore its obligations....Iran must act now, in substance."

Amano told the board that there had been no progress in his agency's year-long push to clarify concerns about suspected atom bomb research in Iran, but said he would continue his efforts.

The Director-General had expressed optimism in June, just before the last meeting between Iran and the 5+1 Powers on Tehran's uranium enrichment, over a resolution of the protocol for inspection and supervision of Iran's nuclear facilities. However, the hope receded amid the stalemate in Tehran's talks with the 5+1.

Iranian officials have said discussions will resume with the IAEA on 13 December.

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Syria Feature: After Insurgent Victories, US Again Considers "Deeper Intervention" (Sanger/Schmitt)

David Sanger and Eric Schmitt write for The New York Times:

The Obama administration, hoping that the conflict in Syria has reached a turning point, is considering deeper intervention to help push President Bashar al-Assad from power, according to government officials involved in the discussions.

While no decisions have been made, the administration is considering several alternatives, including directly providing arms to some opposition fighters.

The most urgent decision, likely to come next week, is whether NATO should deploy surface-to-air missiles in Turkey, ostensibly to protect that country from Syrian missiles that could carry chemical weapons. The State Department spokeswoman, Victoria Nuland, said Wednesday that the Patriot missile system would not be “for use beyond the Turkish border.”

But some strategists and administration officials believe that Syrian Air Force pilots might fear how else the missile batteries could be used. If so, they could be intimidated from bombing the northern Syrian border towns where the rebels control considerable territory. A NATO survey team is in Turkey, examining possible sites for the batteries.

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EA Video Analysis: Egypt --- A 4-Point Guide to the Political Crisis

"President Morsi's claim for taking powers is that he is fulfilling the Revolution by fulfilling justice."

1. What caused the current crisis?
2. What are the wider political and legal issues and context?
3. Is Morsi saving the Revolution or killing it by creating another dictatorship?
4. What happens next?

Iran Feature: The Regime's Food Problems (Saul/George)

Queuing for Chicken, July 2012Iran's food distribution system is in crisis even though Western sanctions do not directly target the market, badly hurting the poor and turning some staples into luxuries.

Private importers are shrinking away from deals made risky by turmoil in the rial currency, and many foreign banks are reluctant to finance even trade exempt from the sanctions for fear of drawing fire simply for doing business with Iran.

The result is that the Iranian state is under growing pressure to import and allocate more goods as it tries to avoid any social unrest due to shortages and soaring prices.

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