The Latest from Iran (1 August): Pressure on Ahmadinejad & Khamenei

1930 GMT: New rhetorical developments in the "War with Iran" corner --- we've got a separate analysis of today's appearance by US military chief Mike Mullen on a Sunday talk show.

1850 GMT: Women, Off Your Bikes. The Friday Prayers leader of Mashaad has reminded women that it is forbidden for them to cycle.

1845 GMT: Terrorist Alert. Fars News reports that a "terrorist" group, made up of Baha'i followers, has been rounded up in Tehran.

1700 GMT: Water Squeeze, Electricity Squeeze Oil Squeeze. Rah-e-Sabz surveys the crisis in supply of clean water, electricity, and gas, noting the restriction in operations of many plants.

NEW Iran Analysis: Hyping the War Chatter — US Military Chief Mike Mullen Speaks
Iran Analysis: More War, No Facts, Blah Blah (Chapter 23)
Iran Analysis: Looking Back on the 1980s (Verde)
Iran Music Video Special: The Award-Winning “Ayatollah, Leave Those Kids Alone”
Iran’s Persecution of Rights: The Pursuit of Lawyer Mohammad Mostafaei (Shahryar)
The Latest from Iran (31 July): Past and Present

1655 GMT: Academic Corner. Advar-e Tahkim Vahdat, the student alumni organisation, has warned of widespread purges of professors with the destruction of social sciences and condemned the prison sentences of Bahareh Hedayat, Ali Malihi, and Milad Asadi.

1650 GMT: More Pressure on the Supreme Leader. Ayatollah Mohsen Kadivar, who recently made a prominent call for the removal of Ayatollah Khamenei, has declared that the "greatest coup d'état" in Iran has been "made by the first person of the country".

1635 GMT: Khomeini Intervention. Seyed Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of Ayatollah Khomeini, has appealed for "an end to hate and rancour as means to solve problems".

Khomeini was meeting members of Islamic associations in Golestan Province.

1620 GMT: Today's All-is-Well Alert. The managing director of the National Iranian Oil Distribution Company (NIODC), Farid Ameri, has said that despite the imposition of new UN sanctions, Iran's gasoline reserves have increased by 15%. Ameri insisted that Iran is capable of supplying its gasoline needs.

1610 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Student activist Hosein Sarshoumi has been arrested in Isfahan.

1530 GMT: Counter-Sanctions. The Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance has issued a directive, "Registration of orders for printing goods, tools and machines from Britain is not allowed."

1520 GMT: Economy Watch. Reports claims that German experts hired for a metro project in Isfahan have left because of unpaid wages.

1515 GMT: Tough Talk of the Day. Yadollah Javani, the political director of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps: if attacked, Iran will take the war beyond its geographical borders.

1450 GMT: Economy Watch. Parleman News reports that unemployment has risen in 21 of Iran's 30 provinces.

The official unemployment rate is now above 10% in 22 provinces.

Mehr News reports that Iran's non-oil trade imbalance has increased, with imports now at a 2:1 ratio to exports.

1430 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Kalemeh says that four hunger strikers (we had reported on one, Payman Akbari-Azad, at 1405 GMT) have been moved to a clinic at Evin Prison.

1415 GMT: Western Reporters, Stay Away. Deputy Minister of Culture and Islamic Guidance Mohammad-Ali Ramin, in addition to slamming Iran's "irresponsible press" (see 1400 GMT), has proclaimed, "The Western media will be excluded from this year's [national] press exhibition. We will not allow the presence of those Western media which are vain, dishonest and beguiling and consider themselves as the ultimate media sultans of the world."

Ramin said exceptions would be made for Western media "which are fitting and independent" to attend the 25 October exhibition.

Earlier this year, some Western journalists used purported coverage of a Tehran conference on uranium enrichment to publish other first-hand stories of Iranian life and politics after the 2009 election.

1410 GMT: Put-Down of the Day. Activist Zahra Rahnavard on Ayatollah Jannati, head of the Guardian Council, after his speech this week defending the Supreme Leader and claiming a US-Saudi $50 billion plot for regime change: "Even a cooked chicken laughs at his words."

1405 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. RAHANA reports that Payman Akbari-Azad, in the 7th day of his hunger strike, has been taken to a hospital outside Evin Prison.

1400 GMT: Complaint of the Week. Mohammad Ali Ramin, the Deputy Minister of Culture and Islamic Guidance, commented on Wednesday in a speech at Imam Khomeini International University blasted the "undesirable situation of the press": "The government is criticized and even disparaged on a daily and weekly basis by at least 500 to 600 publications in the country in the strongest, sometimes insulting, terms."

Ramin also said there are too many publications in Iran:

In the period before me, the supervisory committee would issue 60 licenses during a one-hour meeting. We are now facing problems and some people have licenses over which there is no supervision....Some of these publications which have obtained licenses are in the hands of individuals with no money and they become dependent on investors. The government must help them become absorbed into parties and organizations.

In another section of the speech, Ramin supported the Supreme Leader's "I am the Rule of the Prophet" fatwa and went even further: "The [Leader] has the position of surrogate of the Imam Zaman [the 12th "hidden" Imam] and on his behalf must manage the world, in other words the imposition of God's proof upon humanity during the time of absence [of Imam Zaman]."

Ramin concluded, "We must find a way for the velayat-e-faqih system to manage the world."

0720 GMT: Trouble for the Fatwa? With clerical reaction in Iran awaited to the Supreme Leader's declaration of authority (see 0645 GMT), Grand Ayatollah Sistani, the leading Shia cleric in Iraq (and a native of Iran), has given a less than warm reception.

Sistani said that, to rule the country, velayat-e-faqih and the Supreme Leader's authority must be approved by the majority of loyal followers. He added that if the rule of a marja (senior cleric) differs from that of the Supreme Leader, it is still valid if it is based on welfare for all, unless it contradicts the Qukran and tradition. (http://www.khabaronline.ir/news-80110.aspx)

Meanwhile, Hojatoleslam Hossein Ebrahimi of the Assocation of Combatant Clergy has warned that all three branches of Government are in the hands of hardliners. He added, however, that those hardliners are menaced by internal conflicts and said reformists have not been eliminated. (http://www.khabaronline.ir/news-77980.aspx)

0710 GMT: The Battle Within. The dispute between Parliament and President is now affecting war veterans, according to Rah-e-Sabz. The site claims that the law to support victims of chemical warfare in the Iran-Iraq War has not been implemented by the Government.
(http://www.rahesabz.net/story/20523/)

MP Musalreza Servati has warned that if the Government does not approve the funds for the Tehran metro system, the relevant ministers will be impeached. (http://www.rahesabz.net/story/20470/)

On a different front, MP Esmail Kousari has challenged the Government's "soft" stance on hijab: any current which wants to supersede hardliners is not hardline at all. (http://www.khabaronline.ir/news-78645.aspx)

Alireza Marandi has asked, "How can a government that does not implement Majlis legislation... pretend to be able to run the country?" (http://www.khabaronline.ir/news-79922.aspx)

However, the most serious challenge may have come from Mohammad Nabi Habibi, the leader of the conservative Motalefeh party. Amidst growing confrontation with the President's inner circle, Habibi has struck back at Ahmadinejad's recent declaration that only one party, the Velayat Party, is necessary.

Habibi claimed that the lack of parties menaces Iran and said the "propaganda system" of a party that presents its aims as those of the people is wrong.

Then he warned, "In many cases government have been toppled because of this." (http://www.khabaronline.ir/news-80102.aspx)

0700 GMT: Watching the Clerics. An EA correspondent tells us of a development with the Supreme Leader's "I am the Rule of the Prophet" fatwa.

Grand Ayatollah Makarem Shirazi, who was approached by Ayatollah Khamenei's staff before the fatwa was issued, has published answers to questions about velayat-e-faqih (clerical supremacy) on his website. (http://persian.makarem.ir/estefta/?it=899&mit)

Makarem Shirazi's responses could be a big clue as to whether the Supreme Leader's assertion of authority will be accepted by senior clerics. Curiously, only some of the answers have been published by Fars News. (http://www.farsnews.net/newstext.php?nn=8905080088)

0645 GMT: Slapdown to Obama. Iran has responded to President Obama's call on Friday for the release of three Americans, detained for allegedly walking across the Iran border last year, by insisting that the trio will be tried.

0630 GMT: Oil Salvation from Beijing? Deputy Minister of Oil Hossein Nokreqhbar Shirazi claimed Saturday that Chinese investment in Iran's energy sector has risen to $40 billion.

There was a downside, however. Shirazi admitted that Iran's oil exports to China have fallen 30% this year.

0600 GMT: Catching up with the news while on the road....

Political Prisoner Watch

Brazil has offered asylum to Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani, the woman sentenced to death --- initially by stoning before this was recently revoked --- for adultery.

Peyke Iran publishes pictures of detainees' families who protested in front of the Tehran Prosecutor General's office on Saturday.

Inside Evin Prison, telephone contact has been re-established with political prisoners in Ward 350, where detainees protested last week over ill treatment of them and their families by prison guards. There is still no word, however, of several prisoners who are reportedly in solitary confinement and on hunger strike.

RAHANA posts a report on Majid Dorri, one of the hunger strikers.

Economy Watch

Green Voice of Freedom writes about the metal industry of Kerman, "destroyed" by Chinese & Pakistani imports.

Afghanistan: Deeper into Stalemate? (Randall/Owen)

The British military, having recently redeployed from Sangin in Helmand Province amidst talk of a lack of success against the insurgency, is in the midst of a major public-relations effort around its new "offensive" to reclaim some villages from the Taliban. The BBC News is devoting a large share of almost its foreign coverage, to features on the military's effort.

The Independent on Sunday, in an article by David Randall and Jonathan Owen, offers a far different view:

At midnight last night, the United States formally recorded its most lethal month in the seemingly endless war in Afghanistan. Some 66 servicemen died – at least two a day, every day, for 31 days. That was July. June was the deadliest for the coalition as a whole, and the first six months of 2010 were among the bloodiest for civilians since records began in 2007. What will August bring? Or September and October, months which, General David Petraeus, the US commander, has warned may well bring even more intense fighting? By that time, the war will have gone into its 10th year, and so will move towards, and beyond, the landmark when it will have lasted longer than the First and Second World Wars combined.

It is, especially for the Afghan people, a war without end, and one to add to their history of other fruitless conflicts. An Independent on Sunday assessment, using records kept by Professor Marc Herold of the University of New Hampshire and the UN, puts the civilians killed as a direct result of the war since 2001 at 13,746. Last year, the toll of those who died directly or indirectly was estimated by another US academic to be as high as 32,000.

Meanwhile, the US continues to pile in troops. American strength stands at about 95,000, and by the end of August the figure is expected to swell to 100,000 – three times the number in early 2009. As a result, US commanders have been stepping up the fight against the insurgents in their longtime strongholds such as the Arghandab Valley, Panjwaii and Zhari – all on the outskirts of Kandahar city, the biggest urban area in the ethnic Pashtun south, and the Taliban's spiritual birthplace, where support for the insurgency runs deep.

Read rest of article.... (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/afghanistan-the-unsustainable-in-pursuit-of-the-unbeatable-2040847.html)

China’s Economy This Week: Currency Pressure Eases; Growth Slows; Development in West

"Softened" IMF Tone Eases Currnecy Pressure:  The International Monetary Fund's new approach toward China's exchange rate regime will ease pressure on the appreciation of the yuan, as the world's third-largest economy faces increasing risks of a slowdown, Chinese economists have said.

In a summary of comments by the IMF's 24-member Executive Board released on Tuesday, the Washington-based lender welcomed China's recent decision to return to a managed floating exchange rate system but contended that the yuan was still "undervalued".

The tone was slightly different from the IMF's long-held position, which claimed that the Chinese currency is "substantially undervalued". IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn had reiterated the stance in June.

On 19 June China scrapped the yuan's 23-month-old peg to the US dollar and pledged to seek greater flexibility in the value of its currency. The yuan has edged up about 0.7% since then.

Hu Xiaolian, vice-governor of the People's Bank of China, the central bank, said in an article published on the bank's website last week that the exchange rate will maintain overall stability at a reasonable and balanced level. However, the currency might show "two-way movements" against a single currency depending on market conditions, Hu said.

Central Banks Says Chances of Double-Dip slim:The People's Bank of China said on Tuesday that while it is possible for China's economic growth to slow, the chances of a "double dip" recession are seen as slim.

The country's gross domestic product increased 10.3% year-on-year in the second quarter of this year, slower than the 11.9% growth in the first quarter and the 10.7% expansion in the last quarter of 2009.

The bank said the current slowdown was a correction following arlier excessive expansion and a result of the government's macro-economic regulations that aimed at curbing steep property price increases, easing local government debt risks and avoiding possible inflation.

The PBOC said that the country's bank lending would be within the 7.5-trillion-yuan ($1.1 trillion) target in 2010 if the increase is maintained at the June level.

China to Continue Pro-active Fiscal Policy:  China will continue its fiscal policy in the second half of the year, focusing on speeding up economic restructuring, Finance Minister Xie Xuren said Tuesday.

The country would improve its macro-regulation policies according to changes in domestic and international economies, making the policies more flexible and targeted, Xie said.

China would continue efforts to boost domestic demand, especially consumption, in the second half, he said, urging better implementation of the minimum wage system and programmes such as the subsidized home appliance purchase scheme in rural areas and automobile replacement policy

Xie also demanded continuous financial support for agricultural production, technological innovation, energy-saving, emission-cutting projects and disaster relief.

China's Top Consimer Growth: China is first among 27 emerging economies due to its huge consumer market and rapid economic growth, according to the Emerging Markets Opportunity Index released by US accounting firm Grant Thornton.

"China leads the way thanks to the country's huge consumer market, an increasingly open economy and extremely rapid trade growth, which offer a myriad of business opportunities for potential investors," said Xia Zhidong, partner and vice-chairman of Grant Thornton China.

According to figures from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, China attracts the most foreign investment among the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) countries.

However, a lack of skilled labor, increasing labor costs and the low per capita gross domestic product (GDP) pose major challenges to foreign investment.

Strong Growth in China's Western Regions: The gross domestic product in China's western regions grew by 13.5% in 2009, much higher than the revised national GDP growth of 9.1%, according to a report by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

It is the eighth year in a row that the regions have shown a double-digit growth after the Chinese Government launched a "West Development" campaign in 2000.

Noting that economic development in the western regions still heavily relied on natural resources, the report said efforts should be made to increase the regions' capacity to ensure sustainable development while establishing a low-carbon industrial system.

Hefty Government Investment in Tibet:  China's central government spent 137.8 billion yuan ($20.3 billion) to boost Tibet's development from 2006 to 2010, the regional government said Tuesday.

The money funded 188 key projects covering infrastructure building, urban development, environmental protection, and cultural conservation.

In the first half of this year, Tibet's GDP grew by 11.2%.

Tibet remains one of China's most underdeveloped regions due to its tough natural conditions and a weak economy, and it relies heavily on investment from the central government.

CIC Growth:  China Investment Corporation (CIC), the country's sovereign wealth fund, said Thursday that the rate of return on its global portfolio for 2009 was 11.7%, compared to a drop of 2.1% in 2008.

CIC has quickened its pace of overseas investments since the start of May last year. It invested $58 billion globally after a decline in 2008 of $4.8 billion.

China Currency Pact with Singapore:  The People's Bank of China, the central bank, said Friday that it has signed a 150-billion-yuan ($22.12 billion) currency swap agreement with the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS).

Since late 2008, China has signed currency swap agreements with the Republic of Korea (ROK), Malaysia, Belarus, Indonesia, Argentina and Iceland, as well as Hong Kong.

ICBC to Raise $6.6 billion: Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, the world's most valuable bank, plans to raise up to 45 billion yuan ($6.64 billion) through a rights offer, the latest in a series of massive fundraising plans by Chinese lenders to shore up their capital base.

ICBC said the rights offer was "to ensure the healthy development of our business and to boost our bank's competitiveness, as well as its resilience to risks and its sustainability in profits".

ICBC also said it plans to privatize its unit ICBC (Asia), but did not provide further details.

Big State-owned Chinese banks including Bank of China are seeking to replenish funds depleted by last year's record lending spree and to meet higher capital requirements demanded by regulators.