After a two-month dispute, Russia and Belarus have finally confirmed a deal on energy supplies, agreed to several points on oil transportation and pricing as well as security.

Belarus has an important geopolitical location for the transportation of oil from Russia to Europe, bringing in significant income. The dispute arose over a Russian demand that Belarus pay import duties. In response, Belarus threatened to cut off electiricity to Russia’s certain regions and demanded 30 metric tons of oil duty-free.

Belarus has given way, accepting Russian demands. The agreement should provide uninterrupted oil transit to Europe, preventing a repeat of a 2007 dispute that disrupted supplies to Poland and Germany.

The broader question remains, however. Will Russia play the “trump card” of energy supplies to extract further advantage from Europe and, if so, will Europe show a poker face in reply?

New EA correspondent Cigdem Billur reports on some quiet but important missile manoeuvres in Eastern Europe:

Last year, the Obama Administration declared with great publicity that it was abandoning US plans for bases for Missile Defense in Eastern Europe. The “Star Wars” response of a satellite defense system would be replaced by a mobile system pointing towards Iran from the Persian Gulf.

Beyond the headlines, however, Washington is still planning a visible show of “defense” which concerns not Tehran but Moscow. Polish media are reporting that the US is placing a battery of Patriot missiles only 100 kilometres from the Russian border. Polish officials confirmed that the missiles will be deployed in the city of Morag, near Russia’s critical region Kaliningrad.

The Patriot system, of course, is not for high-level defense against incoming missiles. Its most famous use was the protection of Israel and Saudi Arabia from Iraqi Scud missiles in the 1990-91 Gulf War.

It remains to be seen, however, if Russia will make the distinction. Before the Obama withdrawal of the Missile Defense scheme, President Dmitri Medvedev had suggested that Russia would place Iskander (SS-26) tactical missiles on the Polish border near Kaliningrad. The step was never implemented, but could it be resurrected as a response to the Patriots?