Sunday
Dec282008
Gaza Update (6 a.m. Israel/Palestine; 11 p.m. Eastern US): How Far Will Israel Go?
Sunday, December 28, 2008 at 4:02
Latest Update: Pressing the Bombardment
The basics of today's developments are unsurprising. Given the lack of political and economic progress, the truce was going to lapse last Friday between Hamas and Israel. There were going to be rockets and mortars fired into southern Israel --- even during the six-month truce, there were rockets and mortars sent across the border. Israel was going to use one or more of those rockets and mortars as the rationale for a military assault.
Israel was going to launch that assault partly because of the dynamics of domestic politics and the electoral campaign. More importantly, it was going to do so to put pressure on Hamas, if not to break the organisation and ensure that it was overthrown in Gaza.
Yet, for all this inevitability --- which includes the inevitability of the deaths of civilians as well as fighters --- significant questions arise from today.
The most immediate concerns how far Israel wants to take its attempt to break Hamas. The scale of the death toll, the largest in a single day in Gaza since 1967, is both unexpected and revealing. Set aside the hypocrisy about wanting to prevent civilian casualties. This was not a surgical strike against Hamas militants.
This was a systematic attempt to damage the political and military infrastructure of the organisation and, at the same time, to punish the population. That punishment, provoking fear, disillusionment, and panic, might also provoke the anger leading Gazans to turn against the Hamas leadership.
I think that is a miscalculation, however, especially in the opening phase of operations when the population is more likely to rally behind its Government and against perceived aggressor. So Israel faces the next step: does it support air attacks with a ground invasion?
The easy answer is yes. A show of force will include tanks across the border. However, that show of force is complicated somewhat by Israel's last experience of sustained ground operations to try and separate the population from an enemy organisation --- the campaign against Hezbollah in 2006.
That attempt failed spectacularly, as Hezbollah grew stronger inside Lebanon and the Israeli military and political leadership was blamed for miscalculation. A second mistake in three years, getting bogged down in a bloody occupation of Gaza, is not a welcome prospect even for the most hawkish of Israelis.
The basics of today's developments are unsurprising. Given the lack of political and economic progress, the truce was going to lapse last Friday between Hamas and Israel. There were going to be rockets and mortars fired into southern Israel --- even during the six-month truce, there were rockets and mortars sent across the border. Israel was going to use one or more of those rockets and mortars as the rationale for a military assault.
Israel was going to launch that assault partly because of the dynamics of domestic politics and the electoral campaign. More importantly, it was going to do so to put pressure on Hamas, if not to break the organisation and ensure that it was overthrown in Gaza.
Yet, for all this inevitability --- which includes the inevitability of the deaths of civilians as well as fighters --- significant questions arise from today.
The most immediate concerns how far Israel wants to take its attempt to break Hamas. The scale of the death toll, the largest in a single day in Gaza since 1967, is both unexpected and revealing. Set aside the hypocrisy about wanting to prevent civilian casualties. This was not a surgical strike against Hamas militants.
This was a systematic attempt to damage the political and military infrastructure of the organisation and, at the same time, to punish the population. That punishment, provoking fear, disillusionment, and panic, might also provoke the anger leading Gazans to turn against the Hamas leadership.
I think that is a miscalculation, however, especially in the opening phase of operations when the population is more likely to rally behind its Government and against perceived aggressor. So Israel faces the next step: does it support air attacks with a ground invasion?
The easy answer is yes. A show of force will include tanks across the border. However, that show of force is complicated somewhat by Israel's last experience of sustained ground operations to try and separate the population from an enemy organisation --- the campaign against Hezbollah in 2006.
That attempt failed spectacularly, as Hezbollah grew stronger inside Lebanon and the Israeli military and political leadership was blamed for miscalculation. A second mistake in three years, getting bogged down in a bloody occupation of Gaza, is not a welcome prospect even for the most hawkish of Israelis.
tagged Gaza, Hamas, Hezbollah, Israel, Israeli Defense Forces, Lebanon, Palestine in Middle East & Iran
Gaza, Hamas, Hezbollah, Israel, Israeli Defense Forces, Lebanon, Palestine in Middle East & Iran