The Latest from Iran (10 December): Reading the Chessboard
Thursday, December 10, 2009 at 17:30 
2015 GMT: Josh Shahryar has posted an overview with new data on the 16 Azar marches.1930 GMT: Back from the Iran conference in Durham to find a write-up in The New York Times ( on the Internet attention to the case of Majid Tavakoli, the student leader arrested in the 16 Azar (7 December) demonstrations. It's a good piece on an important matter of Iranian "justice" and dissent, quoting Twitter-prominent activists/bloggers "madyar" and "omidhabibnia".
One correction, though. The article kindly cites me for posting Tavakoli's last entry on Facebook before he was detained. All the credit should go to Setareh Sabety, who brought the piece to Enduring America.
NEW Breaking News: Khamenei Wins 2009 “Dictator of Year”
Iran Analysis: Are Rafsanjani and National Unity Plan “Spent Forces"?
Iran: Latest Updates On Demonstrations
New Videos – Protests Continue at Tehran Universities on 18 Azar
Iran Exclusive: Clerics and Rafsanjani Plan The “Third Way” of Unity
1645 GMT: Propaganda of the Day. Javan, the newspaper of the Revolutionary Guard, says Mehdi Karroubi sent a letter to former President Mohammad Khatami declaring, "You are not part of the movement and have been useless for reformists."
Nice try, gentlemen.
1235 GMT: Rumour of Day. Following yesterday's rumour that plans had been made to fly the Supreme Leader to Russia if life became too difficult for him in Iran, this claim races our way: "Jamaran (the area in northern Iran where Imam Khomeini lived) is being fortified to defend the Supreme Leader against mutiny and provide safe escape in case of ambush"
1215 GMT: The Economic Battle. It is being reported that the Guardian Council, finding the amendments of President Ahmadinejad's subsidy reform bill unacceptable, has returned the legislation to the Parliament.
1015 GMT: An EA reader points us to yet another regime attack on Hashemi Rafsanjani, this time from Minister of Intelligence Moslehi in Qom. The reader summarises, "It is an indication that the risk of Rasfanjani turning into Trotsky is still real."
0905 GMT: What Does This Iran-Syria Meeting Mean? Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Iranian Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi met in Damascus yesterday to discuss bilateral defense relations.
Ritual statements followed the discussion. Al-Assad said the development of defense ties between the two countries could “contribute significantly to regional security and stability”. Vahidi said Iranian-Syrian defense ties could “play a positive role in establishing peace in the region”.
Behind the rhetoric is a political story to be explored. Vahidi's meeting followed a trip to Syria last week by the head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Saeed Jalili, which was marred by a bus explosion and rumours of strains between Iran and Syria.
0855 GMT: Green Humour Highlight. Tehran City Council member Ma’soumeh Ebtekar, celebrating 16 Azar, gave a green chocolate to the sister of the President, Parvin Ahmadinejad, and said, "Eat it so that you become Green too."
Apparently Parvin Ahmadinejad refused to eat the chocolate .
0820 GMT: A Not-So-Incidental Note on Rafsanjani. As we continue to assess whether Hashemi Rafsanjani still has political influence, the regime maintains the pressure on his family.
A group of pro-Ahmadinejad Tehran University students have issued a statement condemning Faezeh Hashemi, Rafsanjani's daughter, for taking part in the 16 Azar protests on the campus, claiming that Hashemi is not a student of this university. They have asked Iran's judiciary to take action against her.
Fars News is also playing up the claim by a member of Parliament, Zohreh Elahian, of "very strong evidence" that Rafsanjani's son, Mehdi Hashemi, had an important role in leading post-election protests and thus Judiciary has to take action against him. She also asserted that 120 MPs have written a letter to the head of Itran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, asking him to put the leaders of post-election protests, such as Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, on trial.
0810 GMT: I'm just catching up after being on the road to London and now to northeast England. Still have to go through all the comments on yesterday's post on clerics, Hashemi Rafsanjani, and the National Unity Plan but the discussion has already led me to re-evaluate the political dynamics in a morning analysis, "Are Rafsanjani and the National Unity Plan 'Spent Forces'"?
Meanwhile, protest is far from a spent force, although the centres of demonstrations were limited to Tehran and Sharif Universities yesterday. Inevitably, there would be a need to draw breath after Monday's 16 Azar protests. The question may now move to what is planned for the celebrations of Moharram, which beginning in just over a week. So far, no sign of specific plans for protest.
Reader Comments (32)
Mr Ejei and Mr Moslehi
Instead of threatening my brave people and thinking about how you could arrest them, think about your dark and miserable futur on the earth and beyond, that how iranian people will take their revenge and how you will burn in the flames of hell !! " justice " exist and don't forget :
"Rafsanjani dosen't belong to your world "
Arshama,
Thank you for the links. They were informative and added more context.
Arashma, Shangool,
I sent the military warning news article to a person who knows and is in daily contact with a few political activists in Iran for their take on veracity of the news. If I hear back and learn anything new, I will post it.
Megan
Sazegara has confirmed it :
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4UequkIju5w
Samuel writes "You cannot base a whole movement on a fundamental lie." Exactly Samuel. That is why this Islamist regime/movement will end up in the trash bin of history. The lie is that these goons care about god when in fact all the regime wants is easy living for their clan. Sorry Samuel, temporary marriages and rape, murder do not make your friends relegious in fact they will all burn in hell. The big lie is the regimes and the end is near.
Samuel and I shall have a beer in Tehran when this whole thing is over and I will give him a swift kick in the balls.
Arshama,
That was priceless--where do I get one? :) If you ever want to find Georege Bush's long lost voter base go to this site a view the pics at www.peopleofwalmart.com. After looking at that site all I could think--"Oh my god and we think we are world leaders!!!"
Thx
Bill
PB,
Knowing how tough Samuel is he just might say "give me another!!!"
Thx
Bill
Samuel,
You know one day it may be you who does something the regime doesn't like. When that happens it will be you taken away and you will be wondering why you said nothing but suported them. This happened to many of my relatives in Lithuania until the Soviets finally fell. Many supported the communists but eventually it got so bad they started speaking up and got a free trip to prison for their efforts. Do you understand the irony of your posts here? You are free to post here and people defend your right yet in Iran disent is censored or a ticket to jail. I gave up trying to post on Presstv because every comment I put under "Mad kafir" was always deleted. The posts were not filled with foul words but statement asking how the regime can ignore the killings/beatings/rapes. What kind of regime can survive it if breaks its own constitution and violates the rights of people? They can continue to stifle the movement but your already starting to see the blow back. If your are a true Iranian one would think you want this to be resolved through compromise yet it seems your itching for violence. Do you really want to see more people killed just so the regime can stay in power?
On a funny note I love your comment about SL going to Venezuela. Go view this site to see all the people who are "running" the US: www.peopleofwalmart.com After viewing it you will probably say "Oh my these people think their nation is a world leader!!!"
Thx
Bill