Wednesday
Dec092009
Iran Exclusive: Clerics and Rafsanjani Plan The "Third Way" of Unity
Wednesday, December 9, 2009 at 7:24 
Written with EA correspondent Mr Azadi:Even as Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was using a world tour and speeches to bolster his position, even as senior Parliament figures were fighting the President over his economic plans and approaches in nuclear talks, even as the Green Waves were planning the protests of 16 Azar, there was another strategy being developed behind closed doors in Tehran, Qom, Mashaad, and Hamedan.
It is a strategy linking senior clerics and former President Hashemi Rafsanjani. And, in their vision, it is the strategy to bring Iran out of political, social, and religious disaster.
Here's the story:
Last week Habibollah Asgaroladi, the secretary-general of the Islamic Coalition Party, a member of the Expediency Council, and the head of Imam Khomeini's Committee, met former President Hashemi Rafsanjani to discuss a National Unity Plan.
Of course, this is not the first consideration of a Unity Plan since the 12 June election. Throughout the autumn, there were discussions and manoeuvres amongst conservative/principlist members of Parliament, Rafsanjani, and clerics to present a proposal that would reform the Iranian system, in particular curbing the authority of President Ahmadinejad, without risking significant changes to the Islamic Republic. At some point, however, the initiative ground to a halt, whether because of Ahmadinejad's resistance, the opposition of other factions, or the objections of the Supreme Leader.
The Asgaroladi-Rafsanjani meeting, however, marked the start of another big push for the Plan. Rafsanjani met clerics in Mashhad to discuss the possibilities. Last Friday, the leader of Mashhad's prayers, Ayatollah Alamalhuda proclaimed that Rafsanjani was part of the Islamic Revolution, having been close to Imam Khomeini and promoted Ayatollah Khamenei as a Supreme Leader. (In June, Alamalhuda, known as a supporter of Ahmadinejad, had said, "Hashemi is guilty and responsible for the Supreme Leader being oppressed.")
This was not the only clerical speech endorsing Rafsanjani. In Hamedan, Seyed Ahmad Khatami --- not to be confused with Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami, the Tehran prayer leader who fervently backs the Government --- declared, "Hashemi is a brother of the Supreme Leader, and it is a falsehood to attack him."
The biggest clue, although we didn't know it at the time, came in an interview that Grand Ayatollah Nasser Makarem-Shirazi gave last Thursday. Makarem-Shirazi, known as a "conservative" cleric in Qom, has been following a middle way since June, challenging the Ahmadinejad approach while remaining distant from the Green Wave, but he went further last week. In the context of what we now know about Rafsanjani's talks with the clerics, this could not be a clearer signal of the new political effort:
When we talk about unity, we are talking about people who believe in the constitution, leadership, Islam, and the interests of the country. Those who believe in those issues can reach unity. However, the precondition is to create a calm environment and then some people, who are respected by society and are moderate thinkers, should agree on the principles of unity. I do not believe that we have reached the end of the road, there is no deadlock.
These discussions and proclamations underlay Rafsanjani's speech on Sunday, emphasizing unity while criticising the Government for its post-election measures and calling on the protesters to show restraint.
So, even though 16 Azar has occurred and continues in the form of university protests, there may be another political battlefront, one in which the protagonists are distinct from the "opposition" (indeed, the other way to look at this move is an attempt by clerics to split Rafsanjani from other Green leaders like Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi).The Government's recent threats against Rafsanjani's family, embodied in yesterday's warning by Tehran Prosecutor General Gholam Hossein Mohseni-Ejei of the prosecution of Rafsanjani's son Mehdi Hashemi, indicate that they take the prospect of a revived National Unity Plan very seriously.
The immediate question is whether the clerics, Rafsanjani, and other political allies (where stand you, Larijanis?) break cover and promote the Plan publicly. Alternatively, they may wait for yet another round of protests at Moharram, beginning 27 18 December, to shake the Government further.
And beyond that is the tougher nut to crack: given that it may have been the Supreme Leader who objected to the previous incarnation of the Plan, given that Ahmadinejad is a battler, given that the Revolutionary Guard is also a political actor, how does Unity emerge from confrontation?
Reader Comments (40)
Megan,
Unfortunately these are the facts on the ground. Loosing religious legitimacy is very important in this puzzle. What you and I might think of Ayatollahs is not relevant to this power struggle.
Hamid,
I agree, depoliticizing religion and role of clergy is a very important step in the process of establishing institutional democracy and the separation of church [mosque] and state. There certainly has been a hojatieh coup d'etat as well withing the clergy establishment. Though I still think Khamanei has more control that it seems. He is dancing the patomoc ( Jamaran?!) two step. He is leaving a scape route for himself should AN and Mesbah and the coup gang eventually end up on the loosing side.
Mark, I think people's target has shifted from Ahmadinejad to khamenei. So he now has no choice but to double down.
Hamid,
Re your point in the third paragraph, I want to believe people have seen mullahs in action for thirty years and by now they should know better. But I take your point. I guess some people never learn.
With regard to the fourth paragraph, if AN and his IRG supporters truly believe in appearance of Mahdi and are preparing for it, then they are more insane and dangerous than I thought. They belong to a mental institution and not in position of power. AN looks like Charles Manson younger brother.
Megan, we should view and interpret every action by Ahmadinejad's government thru their apocliptic lens.
If you do that, all their actions make sense. As you probably saw, Ahmadinejad a couple says ago told a crowd of supporters that although it may appear on the surface that the US invaded Iraq for its oil, in fact the US knows about the imminent return of the hidden imam and that's why they are in Iraq (Mahdi's place of birth) to prevent that from happening.
Because of this belief, this coup group is much more dangerous than even khomeini ever was.
As you may know the Shia have an exception to the "thou shall not lie" rule that permits shia, if necessary, to lie to save an innocent life. This group feels comfortable about lying because they justify their lies as falling under that exception.
So it behooves the international community not to believe any agreement and promises that they make without iron clad followup to catch their deceitful ways.
Timely news report from Tehran Bureau:
A Principlist lawmaker reacted strongly to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's remarks about Americans preventing the coming of the Hidden Imam by accusing reporters of taking his words out of context.
When asked by a Parleman news reporter about his opinion on Ahmadinejad's claims to have evidence of Americans preventing the coming of the Hidden Imam, Asadollah Badamchian said, "These sort of exploitations are wrong. Mr. Ahmadinejad has said something but it's wrong for you to take those words and make a big deal out of it."
When asked if he meant what Ahmadinejad had said was not wrong, Badamchian said, "It's morally wrong to ask such things."
"It is against Islamic morals and Iranian manners to take the things one person says out of context."
When asked if speaking about the Hidden Imam in such a manner was not against Islam, he said, "you are not jurists and neither am I; when a person states his opinion about the Hidden Imam the important thing is his intent. If he intended to make an insult, yes, it's wrong. But if he had no intention of insulting [religious beliefs] and was only stating his opinion, then it is in no way wrong."
What's interesting is that this guy never actually explains what Ahmadinejad meant!
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/2009/12/selected-headlines-83.html
Hamid,
Yes, I heard AN nonsense. He is a BS factory.
How the heck did we arrive at this point in history. How in the world Iranians, founders of an ancient civilization, fell for this gang and tolerated its barbaric destruction of lives for so long. Take a look at this video, http://www.peykeiran.com/Content.aspx?ID=10533
This regime and its thugs are completely out of control.
Megan, Hamid,
Ahmadinejad is a nut. There are rumors of him being in a mental institute or having been treated for some mental disorder for two years. Apparently Rezai had at some point threatened to go public with this information. Khamenei is becoming the target of the people and I think his hand will be forced soon. I personally believe that he will sacrifice Ahmadinejad since things don't look good at all internationally or internally.
One small correction. Velayateh Faghih is a concept at the core of Ayatollah Khomeini. I doubth that any marjah in Iranian inner political circule today, rejects it yet. Yet being the important word that I added at the end of that sentence. Velayateh Fagih by one man for infinate is dead, but they want all now to create the concept of coucil of the fagih. Mullahs are spin masters. We have to question the motives of them always. There is no such thing as a good live mullah. The only good mullah is a dead mullah.
As for that monster Montazari, he was nothing but a lightweight. Don't forget his nick name. He was the gorbeh nareh. He was the man who didn't even know what a freezer is and called it a fariborz. The bafoon was pushed out after the Iran Contra fiasco and when his protoge Hashemi was executed. He has only taken up liberal leanings post being pushed out. Before when he was part of the inner circule, he was all pro murder, expansion of Islam and all that tuggery. Don't rest your hopes on him. The Architect of the Islamic republic, its constitution and the curent mullah rulled system was always Beheshti. Beheshti was like the Jeferson of the revolution. He was assassinated by the MKO. The irony is that his son today is the architect of the fall of the mullah infested regime.
30 years ago, our revolution was hijacked the day that the MKO (gangster murders) took arms and started to fight openly with the Pasdaran (tug murders). We need to now fight these tugs for there is no other way that they will give up the power they have aquired.
Mark,
One point to support your thought process is the fact the regime is actively trying to replace some of the clerics. I have noticed several articles over the past month that have mentioned the regime is looking to "appoint" new clerics more in line with the regime. This action clearly indicates the regime knows their is a fracture. It will be interesting to see if they can actually "hijack" this institution and get away with it.
Thx
Bill
Whereismyvote,
You make some very good points. By no means I defending Montazeri. All of them have bloody hands and actions of MKO clearly helped create what we have today. By killing a lot of moderates MKO paved the way for the ultra right to gain control. MKO itself is religious cult. It is in many ways as dangerous as the basij itself.
I personally know the marja' who has always rejected the velayate faghih concept as well as anything to do with politics...he is not one of the well-known ones but is highly respected for his Islamic knowledge.
I'm not a muslim but I completely disagree on Montazeri. Montazeri has always been the honest one of them...he was wrong about many things early on but unlike the rest of them he never knowingly lied or misled. And that's what got him pushed out of the inner circle when he was Khomeini's designated successor. Not many people have his humility to repeatedly announce his mistakes.
He is a simple man and has no political ambitions, never did. I don't agree with his religious views but I sure respect his honesty and courage.
MKO leaders should be arrested and spend the rest of their lives in prison but their foot soldiers have by far paid the heaviest prices of any Iranian group...close to 10,000 have been killed by the regime and many mistreated by MKO for trying to leave the cult.
In a democratic Iran we should honor everyone regardless of group or idealogy who has made sacrifices for a better future for Iran. Many may have backed the wrong groups but for Iran to be able to move forward and include their loved ones, we must honor all of them.
Bill,
You are right on. That was a week or two ago. They are trying to sort of decide who is a Grand Ayatollah ( marjah e taghlid, which is like a cardinal, earlier I had said an arch bishop but it is closer to cardinal in the catholic church). There are 8 Grand Ayatollahs in Iran and I think about 6 are against the regime ( Sanei, Montazeri, Bayat Zanjani, Javad Amoli, Safi Golpayegni are the ones I remember). So they are trying to come up with some new ones and replace the existing ones. Typically only a Grand Ayatollah can declare someone a Grand Ayatollah and they need to have a resale ( a book ). And some other crazy crap but anyhow there is a huge rift and if the regime is faced with a religious rebellion as well I think they will crumble faster than any of us think.
The intelligence minister today accused Rafsanjani and his kids of trying to topple the Supreme Leader himself ( and the position of Valie Faghih). For the Persian readers you can check this out on gooya. I am sure translations will follow shortly.
http://m.apnews.com/ap/db_15716/contentdetail.htm?contentguid=I74gyqzV
F.Y.I... the word Marjaha comes from an older religion in iran. Its best referenced in the bible with the reference to the Marjai (The three wise men). There are many references of persian influence in the Shia sect of islam. Shiasm is basically persian branded islam with many ideas directly from Zarthustiasm. Mohammad's most influenctial best friend and scholar was "Salman the farsi". He introduced to Mohammad most of the kindness in Zarathustiasm to be added to islam at the time and after Mohammad's life.