Iran's 16 Azar Protests: An Interim Analysis and Questions for the Green Movement

From Enduring America's Mr Smith:

The demonstrations have gone on as planned today in Tehran. The threats to bring the Internet to a grinding halt in Tehran have been fruitless, as usual the Internet got the videos and evidence out.

Couple of points for discussion and analysis:

1) Is this only a Student Demonstration? The reports and news out so far from Tehran and other cities indicates protests, chants, and opposition activity almost entirely within university campuses. There appears to be little follow-up in the streets or little participation by ordinary people. We need more facts and evidence to prove this, but it appears as though 16 Azar did not turn into yet another day of widespread popular defiance of the regime, as seen during 13 Aban [4 November] or Quds Day [18 September].

The Latest from Iran (7 December): The Marches of 16 Azar
Latest Iran Video: The Marches of 16 Azar (7 December)
16 Azar Opinion: “Iran’s Voice Will Be Heard”
16 Azar Special: A Letter from Inside Iran
Latest Iran Videos: The Eve of 16 Azar “Allahu Akhbar” and “Death to Dictator” Chants (6 December)
Iran Opinion: “Why The Green Movement Will Prevail”

2) Is Mir Hossein Mousavi still considered to be the Leader of the Green Wave?

Another point to notice is the radicalisation of chants. The chant considering Mousavi the figurehead of a much vaster struggle against the entire regime and the burning of posters of Imam Khomeini and Ayatollah Khamenei are telling signs of impatience within the student movement and willingness to go beyond Mousavi's stale and unattractive gradualism and his refusal to take on the pillars of the regime --- Khamenei especially --- in a frank and direct way.

This doesn't bode well for the reformists, as they could have to contend with a widening gap between themselves and rank-and-file greens in the months to come. Additionally, it could also lead to repression against Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi and other leaders, as they could be accused of leading a "counter-revolutionary" movement which aims to overthrow the sacred Islamic Republic, should the footage of Khamenei and Khomeini being burnt be paraded on national television.

Iran Document: Mehdi Karroubi on The Response to Extremism

On Friday afternoon, Mehdi Karroubi visited the home of Seyed Feizallah Arab-Sorkhi , a member of the central committee of the Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution party, who has been detained since June's election. Karoubi comforted his family and made the following statement:

What the country is today suffering from is the extremism of a few that have targeted the Islamic Republic establishment. Without a doubt all of us and you who are the survivors of the martyrs of the revolution and the imposed war will not let the blood of martyrs get confiscated....
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We should all return peace and security to the political and social atmospheres of the country by going back to the constitution and focus on people’s vote and decision. It is the responsibility of all intellectuals that we work to extend law and democracy and do our best to prevent division and separation in the path of Imam Khomeini’s ideas....

My familiarity [with Imam Khomeini] from the years that I was closely accompanying that greatness is different from some of the claims that are being made these days. The Imam was always abiding to people’s votes and opinions and if he had received news about dissatisfaction of [even] a small group of people, he would strongly react to it....

We should have witnessed better treatment of the martyrs’ families who some of them were arrested in the recent events....