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Monday
Dec212009

Iran & The Nuclear Talks: The View from Tehran

IRAN NUKES2Mahmoud Reza Golshanpazhooh of the Tehran International Studies and Research Institute writes for Iran Review about the current state of discussions over Iran's uranium enrichment programme: "The issue is not too complicated and under normal circumstances, the chances of finding a solution are greater than before."

First of all, let me point out certain facts about Iran’s nuclear case:

1. Iran signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in 1968 and ratified it in 1970. In 1974, the country signed a bilateral agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which is known as the Nuclear Safeguards Act, to allow IAEA inspections of its nuclear facilities. The agreement has been registered under No. INFCIRC/214 as Information Circular 153 (INFCIRC/153). Accordingly, the Agency has conducted many inspections of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s nuclear facilities, all of which attested to the peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear activities.

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2. The West’s treatment of Iran nuclear case before presidency of Mr. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad made not only the Iranian elite, but also the public conclude that the end result would be losses, giving concessions with no result, submission to West’s bullying, and foregoing an inalienable and natural right.

Thereafter, all forms of negotiations were considered negative, and anything that led to progress in nuclear research was construed an emblem of patriotism, which strengthened a sense of self-confidence and national self-reliance.

3. Interactions between Iran and the Agency have been based more on goodwill than confrontation. During all the time that the Agency has been in charge of Iran’s nuclear case, adoption of a cooperative policy by the Islamic Republic of Iran toward the Agency has prompted the IAEA director general to declare more than once that there has been no evidence to prove any deviation in Iran’s nuclear program toward non-peaceful applications, and the Agency has been able to verify reports submitted by Iran. All his reports attested to Iran having implemented the Safeguards Act. Iran has also provided access to declared nuclear material by the Agency and has presented necessary reports related to those materials and other nuclear activities to the International Atomic Energy Agency.

The Agency has admitted in its reports that all nuclear materials produced at Natanz facility, all installed cascades and the whole UF6 produced at Isfahan UCF are under full control of IAEA and have been accounted for. On the other hand, the Agency has announced in reports issued in September and November 2005 as well as February 2008 that all outstanding issues related to Iran’s nuclear activities have been resolved and the case has been closed.

4. As for allegations about Iran pursuing a military nuclear program, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency has frequently noted that there has been no evidence to uphold those allegations. In his report in May 26, 2008, Mohamed El Baradei noted that the Agency has found no information about practical design or production of nuclear weapon components in Iran. In the same report, the director general noted that there has been no practical use of nuclear materials for purposes mentioned in alleged studies. Also, one day after publication of a report by the American intelligence agencies on Iran’s nuclear program, the IAEA director general issued a statement noting that the intelligence estimate on Iran’s nuclear program totally conformed to what the Agency had asserted in the past few years about absence of any conclusive evidence to prove that there was a weapons program underway in Iran.

What is the main point which every fair mind would associate with the above paragraphs? The conclusions reached after reading the above paragraphs will be, at least, as follows:

1. At no time in the past few years have Iran’s nuclear activities been out of control;

2. Iran’s willingness to interact with the Agency is not just a propaganda drive and has been proven on many occasions; and

3. The political dimension of the nuclear program greatly outweighs its legal dimension.

Interestingly, despite all cooperation that Iran has shown with the International Atomic Energy Agency and its good interaction with P5+1 [US, UK, France, Germany, Russia, China], and although Iran remains committed to NPT, the nuclear case has been reflected in Western media in such a way that as if this is the greatest threat to international peace and security.

Iif Iran was bent on opposing the demands of international community or not complying with its obligations, halting negotiations with P5+1 or quitting the NPT would have been the most available options for a country conducting a clandestine nuclear program. The claim that Iran is trying to buy time is not true: the time needed to increase uranium enrichment from below 5 percent to above 90 percent for a country which, despite extensive sanctions is trying to do it through indigenous know-how, is not comparable to prolonged periods of negotiations or asking for more time to review a proposed package more painstakingly.

At present, the nuclear case of Iran has hit a new deadline. Those who thought that Obama’s new approach and his emphasis on negotiations, combined with Iran’s acceptance of the proposal to swap its low enriched uranium with 20-percent enriched uranium, would work to solve the problem now feel that they have been duped. This is not a good sign. Marginalization of optimism and of those who hope to achieve a diplomatic solution will only bring those who have sought a military solution from the first to the fore. They will emphasize that if Iran’s nuclear facilities are bombed or more paralyzing sanctions are imposed, Iran and Iranians would be brought to their knees. After destruction of all Iranian facilities, the world would be back to normal and peace would be restored!

I don’t know about you, but I feel people who reach such a conclusion have closed their eyes on a major part of human history or know nothing about psychological reactions of nations who feel that they have been wronged.

To head off this process, finding a solution to Iran’s nuclear issue needs tact and discretion more than anything else. Both sides should be discreet enough to sit at the negotiating table and look at this issue from another angel. Otherwise, the headlines which we must expect to see in the coming weeks would be something like these: renewed threats from P5+1 on Iran’s nuclear program; Iran reiterates peaceful nature of its nuclear program; new Security Council resolution against Iran introduces tougher sanctions; Iran says resolution not fair, still insisting on nuclear rights; more sanctions contemplated by US and Europe; more pressure on Russia and China to reduce trade with Iran; Iran says capable of enriching uranium up to 20 percent; West intensifies sanctions against Iran….

However, if another side like the International Atomic Energy Agency, whose main intent is to calm down both sides and highlight positive signals which point to a possible agreement, takes up the case and goes beyond usual obstinate positions taken by the two sides to find a balanced model based on understanding of current problems, it is sure to reach a good conclusion. The issue is not too complicated and under normal circumstances, the chances of finding a solution are greater than before.
Monday
Dec212009

Israel: Lieberman "Egypt Has More to Fear from Iran than We Do"

PD*26509638On Sunday, Egyptian intelligence chief Omar Suleiman met Israel's foreign minister Avigdor Lieberman, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, President Shimon Peres, and Industry, Trade and Labor Minister Benjamin Ben-Eliezer.

Barak said: "We're always happy to see him. I hope we have fruitful talks here." He and Suleiman talked about the "central role" of Egypt in talks with Palestinians, Egypt's wall on  the Gaza border preventing smuggling, the Iranian "threat",  and the kidnapped Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit.

The most striking part of the visit came true at the end of the meeting between Lieberman and Suleiman. Lieberman stated that "Egypt has more to fear from Iran than we do." He added, "The greatest danger in the Middle East today is Iran, which is a greater threat to moderate Arab nations than to Israel. Tehran is attempting to duplicate the model of Hezbollah in Egypt, Jordan, and Yemen."
Monday
Dec212009

Israel-Palestine: Hamas "Provided Evidence" for Arrest Warrant for Livni

tzipi_livniAccording to Agence France Presse, a committee was set up by Hamas to aid European lawyers to investigate war crimes allegedly committed during the Gaza offensive in last December.

Judge Diya al-Madhun, the head of the committee, said:
We provide documents, reports and evidence of crimes to all international bodies aiding the Palestinian people in bringing Israeli civilian and military leaders to trial and issuing warrants for their arrest.

We have provided a group of independent lawyers in Britain with documents, information and evidence concerning war crimes committed by Israeli political and military leaders, including [opposition leader Tzipi] Livni.
Sunday
Dec202009

This Weekend on EA (19/20 December)

TOWN CRIERIran: Sunday's news has been dominated by the sudden death of 87 year-old Grand Ayatollah Montazeri and how the Regime is trying to deal with the challenges posed by his death, first by belittling his memory;  then by criticising the cleric. All the latest news is, as always, in our live weblogDemonstrations have been taking place honouring Montazeri's memory --- we've posted video from Tehran and Najafabad. We also flashback with a video to Montazeri's denunciation of the Supreme Leader in a speech in October.

Mehdi Karoubi has  responded in an open letter to the threat of arrest made by the head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani .

Austin Heap, one of the most respected and prominent activists on the Internet and Iran, has written for EA explaining the attack on Twitter by the Iranian Cyber Army.

We analyse the Regime's attempts to amass thousands of their own supporters to in Friday's rally in Tehran, and we have video of nightime rooftop protests in Tehran.

Palestine: Following the dramatic article in Thursday's Guardian newspaper, EA analyses the story behind CIA support of Palestinian "torture".

Lebanon: Is Lebanese PM Hariri seeking to improve Lebanese-Syrian relations to better defend Lebanon against Israel?

Israel & Turkey: Can Israel and Turkey repair relations and leave behind the Gaza War behind? EA's Ali Yenidunya analyses.

Middle East: on Friday both the EU and the UN both criticised Israel over its settlement policy.

USA: One year into the Obama Presidency, EA's John Matlin writes in defence of the President.


Sunday
Dec202009

The Latest from Iran (20 December): Montazeri Death; Regime Scrambles for Legitimacy

MONTAZERI POSTER2200 GMT: Stopping the Mourners. Rouydad News carries a story we've been hearing on the Internet all evening: Iranian security forces have stopped a bus carrying families of political prisoners and members of Women's Human Rights Committee to the funeral of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri in Qom, arresting several people.

2049 GMT: The Revolutionary Danger of Dating. More than 60 operators and managers of Iranian Internet sites for dating have been arrested for anti-cultural and immoral activities in their promotion of "a gallivanting lifestyle".

2045 GMT: The Kahrizak Abuses. The blog Persian2English has produced an English translation of the official report of the Armed Forces judiciary panel concluding that three detainees died from abuse at Kahrizak Prison.

1845 GMT: Another Demonstration. A brief video clip has come in of a protest today at Arak University.

1600 GMT: Ongoing Coverage of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri's Death. We have updated with extensive information and analysis on condolences, political developments, and plans --- including tomorrow's funeral --- surround Montazeri's passing.

1345 GMT: EA's Mr Smith comments:
Grand Ayatollahs Safi Golpayegani, Mousavi Ardabili, and Sanei and Ayatollahs Gerami, Shabbiri Zanjani, Mousavi Tabrizi, and Taheri Khorramabadi have visited Montazeri's bayt (house) to offer their respects. This is extremely important as, in Shia clerical custom, going to someone's house means deferring to that person's authority and or power. It is therefore a significant slap in the face of Government efforts to belittle Montazeri.

MONTAZERI AYATOLLAHS
1145 GMT: The Political Challenge of Montazeri. We're getting a lot of news on the regime's attempts to deal with the challenge posed by Grand Ayatollah Montazeri's death, first by ignoring it, now by belittling it and criticising the cleric --- all will be posted soon in an update in our separate entry.

Meanwhile Mr Smith checks in to give the political dimension of the events: "Montazeri simply could not have died at a more topical moment: the seventh day of his passing will be none other than Ashura itself, which this year is shaping up to be the very worst in the lives of Khameni, Ahmadinejad and their cohorts. The pressure on them on those days simply cannot be measured."

1135 GMT: Videos, Protests in Memory of Montazeri. We've posted the first videos of demonstrations in memory of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, and we also have put up the video of his October criticism that the Supreme Leader was not worthy to be a marja (senior cleric worthy of emulation).

1110 GMT: The Latest on Montazeri's Death. We have latest developments in a separate entry. One notable political move: the pro-Government newspaper Raja News is using Grand Ayatollah Montazeri's passing to attack Hashemi Rafsanjani, claiming the Grand Ayatollah was working with the "gang" of Rafsanjani's son Mehdi Hashemi.

NEW Iran Document: Karroubi Responds to Threat of Arrest
NEW Latest Iran Video: Montazeri’s Criticism of Supreme Leader Khamenei (October 2009)
NEW Latest Iran Video: Demonstrations in Memory of Montazeri (20 December)
NEW Iran Urgent: Ayatollah Montazeri Has Died
Iran Analysis: RegimeFail?
Iran Special: Austin Heap on “The Attack on Twitter”
Latest Iran Video: Mehdi Karroubi Interview with BBC (17 December)

The Latest from Iran (19 December): After the Mythical “Millions”

1100 GMT: Karroubi Responds to Threat of Arrest. We've posted Mehdi Karroubi's letter responding sharply to the threat of Iran's head of judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, that he has enough evidence to arrest the cleric and other opposition leaders.

0825 GMT: Sane'i Message for Ashura. Ayatollah Yusuf Sane'i has spoken to students about the protests during the holy month of Moharram and specifically on the day of Ashura (27 December), reiterating the need for non-violent demonstration: “If you respond to violence with violence then your reform movement will not have any result....Persist on getting your rights and be present anywhere and in any place that is talk of defending the oppressed.” He added that Imam Hossein will protect those who are mourning for him.

Grand Ayatollah Saanei repeatedly upheld both the image of Imam Hossein, whose death is marked by Ashura, and the ideals of Ayatollah Khomeini: “We wanted of the revolution a government come to power that protects the nation’s rights and that was what Imam and people sacrificed for....Powers will never survive by oppression and tyranny.”

0800 GMT: We are providing rolling coverage of this morning's breaking news of the death of Grand Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri, 87, one of the most prominent clerical figures in post-1979 Iran and a vocal opponent of the Ahmadinejad Government and Supreme Leader. Most of the reaction is marking his death with sadness and tributes, but there is already some discussion of whether this news will hinder the opposition, as it loses one of its most powerful (if politically ostracised) voices, or boosts it, as Montazeri becomes a symbol for the cause of fighting injustice and oppression in the name of Islam.

The news overtakes a number of moves on both the Government and opposition sides. The regime moved yesterday to limit some of the post-election political damage from abuse of detainees, confirming that three had died from beatings in Kahrizak Prison and that 12 officials have been indicted for alleged abuses.

Perhaps more importantly, Iranian ministries are scrambling to repair the damage from Friday's mini-march that failed to establish Government legitimacy. The Ministry of Islamic Culture issued warnings to five newspapers (Abrar, Andishye-Noe, Jahan-Eghtesad, Etemad, and Mardom-Saalaari) for “not giving enough coverage” of the rallies, ostensibly organised to protest the burning of Ayatollah Khomeini's picture on 16 Azar (7 December).