Writing in Foreign Policy, C. Christine Fair offers an interesting perspective on last week's closure of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border by Islamabad --- after three Pakistani troops were killed by US airstrikes --- to NATO convoys, with the subsequent burning of dozens of tankers:
....While the anxiety surrounding the road closures that attract attacks is understandable, the real puzzle is not how to prevent these outcomes generally or even why this one happened in particular. The real question is why doesn't this happen more often and with greater consequence? Even garden variety pilferage of the supply line is minimal according to U.S. officials and this current episode has been a nuisance but not a strategic threat. The 120 or more trucks that have been destroyed comprise less than one percent of the total traffic in any given month, according to U.S. Department of Defense officials.
So, why haven't attacks on the supply line to Afghanistan been more common? It's reasonable to argue that a dedicated and sensible insurgent would target these trucks along the way from Karachi to Torkham or to Chaman in Pakistan and from Torkham or Chaman to their final destinations within Afghanistan. This would be simple to do as the Pakistani security forces do not protect those privately-owned trucks and much of the route in Afghanistan winds through narrow mountain passes.
The answer is simple: trucking mafias and organized criminal and insurgent networks are all making money off of this system. The system of payoffs is elaborate yet elegant. Pashtuns dominate the trucking mafia in Pakistan and represent enormous financial interests in the fundamental integrity of the supply line system. The drivers and their companies must pay off Pakistani police and any other relevant government officials to secure "safe" passage and to resolve any "paperwork complexities."
Insurgents and criminal organizations also get their courtesy payment in exchange for safe passage to Afghanistan. Ordinary smugglers and blackmarketeers get their pieces of the pie too. Cargo containers are pilfered in small amounts. They are in turn auctioned off and the buyers sell their contents in the "bara bazaars" (black markets) throughout Pakistan. Some of the contents of the trucks have made their way into the hands of Pakistani insurgents. Overall, pilferage is low. This seems deliberately calibrated to ensure that such loss is an irritant to be tolerated rather than a problem to be fixed.
Trucks have been torched in the past and sometimes in large number. But it is not as it appears in all instances. While I was with the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan in 2007, I travelled to Jalalabad to meet UNAMA staff there. They explained that time-tested insurance scams are an easyway for Pakistani drivers and their employers to make cash. Trucks coming to Afghanistan offload their fuel in Pakistan at an appropriate price. Then, with only a minimal amount of fuel, the truck is "attacked" and "set on fire." The company files an insurance claim for both the lost truck and the value of the lost cargo. It is almost impossible to say how often this takes place. Sometimes it can backfire: with dozens of trucks lined up bumper to bumper, when one truck catches fire there is a deadly domino effect....
The problem of torching tankers is not entirely within the hands of Pakistan's security forces. And this challenge is beyond the ability of NATO or the United States to influence.
Sooner -- rather than later -- the mafias and the militants will want their revenue streams reopened. To get the trucks rolling, there will be a slew of renegotiated contracts with trucking firms and protection rackets demanding a higher price to get the job done. The drivers -- who make the least off of this racket -- will also likely see increased pay in recognition of the increasing dangers of the task. In the end, the loss of profit to all parties during this last week will be recouped in spades when the traffic resumes at higher prices.
It is the non-state actors who will likely decide when enough is enough and get the traffic and their profits moving again. And they will again decide when it's time to renegotiate their contracts by blowing up more trucks.