1930 GMT: Close to Impeachment? Really? This morning (see 0609 GMT) we noted a Wall Street Journal story about the growing dispute between Parliament and President, commending it for noting the conflict but calling it "exaggerated". Here are the dramatic paragraphs:
Iran's parliament revealed it planned to impeach President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad but refrained under orders from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, exposing a deepening division within the regime....
Conservative newspapers reported on Monday that lawmakers have started a motion to collect the 74 signatures needed to openly debate impeachment. Mousa Reza Servati, the head of the parliament's budgetary committee, was quoted as saying 40 lawmakers, including Mr. Servati, have signed the motion.
The move to remove the president from office marks the first time in the history of the Islamic Republic that parliament has discussed impeachment of a president. Though the legislature is backed by the Iranian constitution, lawmakers can't drive Mr. Ahmadinejad from office without the supreme leader's agreement.
Here is how EA reported the story on Monday: "About 40 lawmakers have signed a petition, sponsored by Ali Motahari, Alireza Zakani, Tavakoli, and Elyas Naderan to summon Ahmadinejad to the Majlis. At least 74 signatures are necessary for the President to be commanded to appear."
Note the important difference in emphasis. Summoning the President to answer questions in Parliament is not debate of impeachment. Instead, if Ahmadinejad's answers are not satisfactory, then the Parliament can take further action, asking him for better responses. If those are still not suitable, then impeachment may be an option.
That is a long way from the showdown portrayed in the Wall Street Journal. And it certainly does not mean that the Supreme Leader has intervened to block the President's removal.
We are now checking our interpretation, as the Journal story is being repeated as gospel truth by sources such as the BBC and Joe Klein of Time magazine.
1910 GMT: Larijani's "Landslide". Homy Lafayette, in Tehran Bureau, digs deeper into the headline story of Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani's re-election, bringing out the political in-fighting between Larijani supporters and backers of the President:
Majles Speaker Ali Larijani's recent election as chairman of the majority faction has further highlighted the cracks in the pro-regime Principlist camp and the ambiguous nature of democracy in the Islamic Republic.
On Sunday, November 7, the central council of the legislature's Principlist faction voted to choose its leader. Depending on the source, Larijani was either named on 44 out of 47 ballots as the sole candidate, or squeaked by with 25 votes over his rival, Tehran representative and Second Deputy Speaker Shahabeddine Sadr, who had 20.
1850 GMT: Economy Watch. Ali Chenar, writing in Tehran Bureau, offers a useful overview of economic tensions, "Uncertainty Grows Over Plans to Slash Subsidies".
1840 GMT: Where's Mahmoud? Back from an academic break to find that President Ahmadinejad was visiting the good people of Zanjan in northwest Iran today.
His chief concern was NATO's recent endorsement of US-led missile defence: "No power in the world dares to act against the Islamic Republic of Iran."
1335 GMT: Nuclear Opportunity? A lot of chatter, before today's International Atomic Energy Agency report, that the Iranian nuclear programme has run into problems, particularly with the performance of centrifuges, "leading to a rare but temporary shutdown".
The Washington Post, which heads the coverage, runs up a diversionary alley with the claim that"speculation [over the problems] immediately centered on the Stuxnet [computer] worm". Any sharp observer of Iranian nuclear developments knows that there have been long-standing issues over the performance of the centrifuges, restricting Tehran's production capacity.
Still, the broader issue of possible difficulties in the programme is significant. The Newest Deal has a useful analysis:
If the IAEA report's findings ultimately hold to be true and the country's economy continues to stagnate, Ahmadinejad (and indeed, the regime) may finally be forced into making meaningful concessions in future negotiations with the West. The economic costs of the sanctions, after all, have always been burdened on the presumption that a fully-functioning nuclear program would result. If that's gone, the Islamic Republic would lose much of the incentive to continue its recalcitrance, which could possibly create an opening for the Obama administration to press forward with its policy of engagement.
1300 GMT: Rafanjani Watch. Did the regime just turn the heat up a notch on the tensions with former President Hashemi Rafsanjani?
Iranian state radio is reporting, from the deputy head of judiciary, Ebrahim Raissi, that an arrest warrant has been issued for Rafsanjani's son Mehdi Hashemi.
Hashemi has been in London since summer 2009 and has been accused in court hearings of fraud and electoral manipulation. Raissi was quoted today that Hashemi "will be detained upon arrival in the country".
1120 GMT: Today's All-is-Well Alert. First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi declares:
The sanctions in the past and today have led to fortune and blessings for us as we have managed to turn them into economic opportunities. We have not been harmed by the sanctions. Rather, the scheme has prompted us to stand on our own feet.
Under these conditions we managed to sign economic memoranda of understanding with other countries, including Algeria and take effective economic steps along with our political interactions.
1025 GMT: Un-Diplomatic Relations. The African republic of Gambia, amidst tensions over alleged Iranian arms shipments, broke off diplomatic relations with Tehran on Monday, giving Iranian official 48 hours to leave the country.
Iran has responded through Alaeddin Boroujerdi, the head of Parliament's National Security Commission: “This move is done under pressure from the US and in line with its policy to damage Iran's relations with various countries, including Africa.”
Boroujerdi also claimed that, even though President Ahmadinejad had pursued a policy of enhancing relations with African countries, Iran did not have high-level links with Gambia.
0720 GMT: Karroubi Blockaded. Security forces prevented people from entering Mehdi Karroubi's residence on Monday.
There have been regular blockades around Karroubi's house to cut him off, including during the recent three-day Eid Fitr holiday. Figures such as Ayatollah Bayat Zanjani and the families of prominent Iranian martyrs have been turned back.
0609 GMT: Parliament v. President. Farnaz Fassihi of the Wall Street Journal picks up on the growing tensions between lawmakers and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad --- covered on a daily basis by EA --- exaggerating the story, "Iran's parliament revealed it planned to impeach President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad but refrained under orders from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
0559 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Kalemeh reports that Hamid Mohseni, the head of Mir Hossein Mousavi's office, has been released from Evin Prison on bail.
Mohseni was detained in mid-September after a raid on his house.
The second court hearing of attorney Nasrine Sotoudeh, detained since early September, is scheduled for Wednesday.
Sotoudeh, who has been on hunger strike for much of her imprisonment, appeared briefly in court last week, but the judge adjourned the proceeding so more information could be gathered.
0555 GMT: Currency Watch. Mehr reports that the Iranian toman has stabilised, with its value rising to 1055 to the dollar, but the website also says some private traders have run out of foreign exchange.
0549 GMT: To Lose One Official is Unfortunate, To Love Five.... Aftab reports that five Assistant Secretaries --- four in transport and one in trade --- have resigned or been dismissed.
0545 GMT: The Labour Front. Hundreds of construction workers gathered in front of Parliament on Monday to protest against the planned dissolution of insurance funds in the 5th Budget Plan.
Meris Lutz of the Los Angeles Times publishes an overview of the government's crackdown on union activists, with a tribute video to Mansour Osanloo, detained since 2007.
0530 GMT: Yet another press conference announcing arrests, but this time there may be a difference.
On Monday, the head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, said about 30 people had been indicted in connection with the attacks on Tehran University dormitories just after the June 2009 Presidential election. Larijani added that the judiciary is proceeding without any input from security forces.
Larijani's announcement may be a ritual disclaimer, upholding an independent investigation, or it may suggest that those being charged are involved with the forces in the assault on the nights of 14-15 June. Students were injured, and there were reports of at least two deaths.
The affair has been surrounded in confusion over recent weeks with rumours that those being targeted for arrest were the students, not the assailants on the dorms.