EA WorldView

2020 GMT: Latest on US Detainee Sarah Shourd. Masoud Shafiee, the lawyer for detained US citizen Sarah Shourd, says that her family is appealing to Iran's authorities to drop or reduce. the $500,000 bail demanded for her release because of difficulties raising the money. Shafiee said authorities had given no response to the bail request. Meanwhile, State Department spokesman Phillip Crowley said, "The United States government does not fund prisoner bail." White House spokesman Tommy Vietor said the Obama Administration is in close contact with the families of the three detained US hikers --- Shourd, Shane Bauer, and Josh Fattal --- and the Swiss Embassy, which represents American interests in Iran "The situation is continuing to develop," Vietor said. "We remain hopeful for a positive outcome." 2000 GMT: Diplomat Number Four. The Norwegian paper Dagblodet reports that Farzad Farhangian, the Iranian Press Attache in Belgium, has resigned his post and is now in Oslo seeking asylum. Last week, Iran's Counsellor in Finland, Hossein Alizadeh, left his post in sympathy with the opposition. Earlier this year, Iran's Counsellor in Norway, Mohammad Reza Haidari, and an Iranian diplomat in Japan, Abolfazl Eslami, quit in protest at the Government's post-election actions.

1710 GMT: Mousavi Reacts to His "Siege". It is not quite as dramatic as the crowd that surrounded Mehdi Karroubi's house two weeks ago, but the security forces outside Mir Hossein Mousavi's office have prevented visits, to the point of making arrests. Mousavi has reacted in comments to the website Kalemeh: “These illegal restrictions on people visiting me date back to the elections of 2009. However, the people’s movement has strong roots and will not be affected by restrictions on my person or even by my omission....The continuous loss of the government’s legitimacy and the piling of dissent have created a particular situation in the country….They should fear the ever-increasing rage of the people not us.” 1427 GMT: Academic Corner. More than 160 scientists of physics and other natural sciences have sent a letter to Minister of Science and Higher Education Kamran Daneshjoo, expressing grave concern about Zanjan University's scientific future after the dismissal of its head, Professor Yousef Sobouti.

1420 GMT: President v. Foreign Ministry (cont. --- see 1215 GMT). The chatter about Mahmoud Ahmadinejad removing Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki is serious enough for Iranian media to be discussing possible replacements: names being put forward include Saeed Jalili, the Secretary of the National Security Council, and Mojtaba Samareh Hashemi, a close advisor of the President.

1410 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Activist Meysam Roudaki, has begun serving a three-year sentence in Evin Prison.

1400 GMT: Budget Compromise? Kalemeh reports that the Ahmadinejad Government has "withdrawn its withdrawal" of the 5th Budget Plan from the Parliament after the intervention of the Supreme Leader.

The President's representatives had boycotted a recent committee meeting to sort out the Plan after Ahmadinejad objected to Parliamentary amendments.

A rather cheeky EA correspondent, linking this to the fight between Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani (amongst others) and Ahmadinejad over the release of detained US hiker Sarah Shourd, ponders, "Your budget for my hostage?"

1340 GMT: A Law Enforcement Twist? Tehran Police Commander Hossein Sajedinia has reportedly said that about 100 people involved in the five-night siege of Mehdi Karroubi's home have been identified. Ahmadi-Moghaddam said the necessary steps were being taken to arrest and charge the attackers.

1310 GMT: Stopping the Lawyers. Deutsche Welle reports that the husband and lawyer of Nasrine Sotoudeh, the human rights attorney detained nine days ago by Iranian authorities, have been threatened with arrest if they speak about the case to media.

1215 GMT: President v. Foreign Ministry. The dispute between Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his diplomats --- which got to the point of the attempted resignation of Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki --- has flared up again, at least in one Iranian outlet....

Jahan News is reportedly claiming that Ahmadinejad is thinking of replacing Mottaki. That chatter has been picked up by the opposition website Rah-e-Sabz --- we're looking for the original piece on Jahan.

1040 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Peyke Iran reports that children's rights activist Mahmood Ghaznavian has been sentenced to five years in prison.

0740 GMT: Economy Watch. Peyke Iran claims, with subsidy cuts imminent, bread prices have doubled in Golestan Province in northern Iran.

0730 GMT: Reformist Letter to Revolutionary Guard. The Islamic Iran Participation Front has published an open letter to General Mohammad Ali Jafari, the head of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, offering this consolation: the President and the Ministry of Intelligence have outdone the Revolutionary Guard in post-election atrocities.

The IIPF raised the specific case of its leading official, Mohsen Safaei Farahani, who recently suffered a heart attack in a prison ward supervised by the Revolutionary Guard.

0635 GMT. Karroubi Watch. More on Mehdi Karroubi's Sunday interview on Al Arabiya television....

The emphasis was on how the regime, reacting to tensions, creates tension to prop up its claimed authority: "[It] considers that the continuation of its rule depends on creating crises....It stirred a lot of problems inside universities and in various unions and within clergy as well. “The current conditions are very tense and very difficult. It has never been like this during the last 30 years of the revolution."

Karroubi got specific in his challenge when he claimed that Iran's system had effectively been taken over by certain elements: "Things now are in the hands of the Revolutionary Guard and the Ministry of Intelligence; of course I do not mean everybody under those departments is responsible, but some parties are."

At the same time, Karroubi reached out a hand by saying that the majority in the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps and Ministry of Intelligence were unhappy with the current situation, and he pointed to the political way forward, possibly through parallel action --- if not alliance --- with the President's conservative critics in the Majlis: “Even if the Parliament wants to work, this man (President Ahmadinejad) who likes to act alone will obstruct its work. If I were in the Parliament, I would not allow such behaviour.”

0520 GMT: Sunday was an illustration of the complexities of "justice" and politics inside Iran. Mehdi Karroubi issued another statement of defiance in a televised interview on Al Arabiya and conservative MP Ahmad Tavakoli made another challenge to President Ahmadinejad in a "warning" letter; however, the headlines were dominated by the stories of two women.

After 72 hours of roller-coaster developments, the US detainee Sarah Shourd is likely to be released this week, possibly today, on $500,000 bail after a compromise between Iran's judiciary --- which objected to the President's plan for a grand ceremony "freeing" the American --- and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Some Iranian media indicate that Shourd will be allowed to leave the country as she awaits trial, with fellow prisoners Josh Fattal and Shane Bauer remaining behind bars, but this is not certain given the political tensions within the Iranian system.

The even more unexpected news came last night when prominent human rights activist Shiva Nazar Ahari walked out of Evin Prison after 14 months in detention. There had been no indication that Nazar Ahari would be freed; to the contrary, reports had been building that she might face the death penalty on charges of "mohareb" (war against God).

So what happened? Did the regime let her go with the assurance, which has been extracted from other prisoners, that there would be return to political or human rights activity? Did Iranian officials think the heavy $500,000 bail would keep Nazar Ahari in check? Or is it possible that someone in the system noted the international pressure that had been building over Nazar Ahari's case?

No answers here, especially given this convergence: while Shourd's chances of freedom increased and as Nazar Ahari was photographed under the night lights of Evin Prison, others had been detained and sentenced this weekend. Iran "revolving door" of "justice" has not slowed.