See also US Politics Feature: Is It "The Curse of the Front-Runner" for Mitt Romney?
If I was a betting man, which I’m not, I would be inclined to put a substantial wager on Barack Obama being re-elected as President next year.
Not that I’m endorsing a memorable presidency. Not hardly. My view is based mostly on the likely opposition.
For the past few months, Republican hopefuls, seeming more like clones, have presented themselves to the American public. There are clear distinctions among them, mostly in terms of economic policy, yet their bottom line is clear: the brunt of any new initiatives will fall on those least able to pay.
Some, like Michele Bachmann, stayed on the front pages for more than a week, but all these fringe players have fallen away. Well, all but one.
According to the BBC on Wednesday, Herman Cain of Godfather's Pizza fame is the current front runner. How has he achieved this? He has a strong line in self-deprecation, adopting the Sarah Palin gambit of aggressively dumbing down. When asked about foreign policy, he makes a virtue of his lack of knowledge. In contrast, he is an expert on the 10-word soundbite. No doubt, this tactic plays well with the Tea Partiers but there is a question: if the 10-word sound bite does not fix problems of government, what are the next ten words and those that follow?
At present, it looks like Mitt Romney will be the Republican choice come Convention time. The 2008 hopeful invested a large fortune in Iowa, only to come second, and got the same result in New Hampshire, next door to his home state. In political terms, Romney’s second places equated to nowhere. By mid February 2008, he was out of the race and $45 million poorer.
In 2012, which Romney will turn up? If it is the version who won the race for Governor of Massachusetts in 2002, he might give Obama a run for his money. That year, Romney achieved the political near-impossible, a red win in one of the bluest of blue states. During his term, he signed into law health care reform legislation which provided near-universal insurance via subsidies and state-level mandates. He also oversaw the elimination of a $3 billion budget deficit.
The 2002-2006 version of Romney was missing in 2008 and is not apparent now. He panders to the conservative Republican base, who will probably spurn him because he, a Mormon, is not sufficiently Christian. If Romney did become the Republican candidate, would the evangelical base of the party ever support him?
So, what can prevent Obama, with the disarray among Republicans, being returned to the White House twelve months from now? I see two major electoral impediments.
First, the Republican right might put forward a moderate, whom they have turned and moulded. Chris Christie, the Governor of New Jersey, turned down the opportunity. He preferred his state and family life, it seems. Rudy Giuliani, the former Mayor of New York City and an early front-runner in the 2007/8 campaign, might try again but I doubt he will make headway. Who else could capture the voters’ imagination while squaring his/her moderation with the Republican base and the will of the Tea Party?
Second, the Democrats could part company with Obama. His ratings are poor: according to Pew, the important “strong leader” rating fell below 50% in August this year and has continued to drop. If the US economy continues to struggle, it is not impossible to see other Democrat leaders emerge to seek the top spot, though traditionally the incumbent always has the advantage and ditching him can be perceived as fatal weakness.
Obama has two aces in the hole. Sometime between now and July 2012, the Supreme Court will rule on Obama’s health care legislation. The popular view is that the Court will rule 5-4 but which way will the swing vote of Anthony Kennedy go?
I don’t believe it matters politically. Obama is on a win-win. If the Court rules in favour of the legislation, he will have achieved something which all his Democratic predecessors, even Franklin Roosevelt, were unable to do. If the court rules against Obama, he will be able to campaign on a platform that Congress wanted to help more than 40 million Americans enjoy the same advantages as their fellow citizens in access to health care, but five privileged men denied this.
Obama’s other ace is Bill Clinton. Whatever his shortcomings, Clinton is the master campaigner. Like Obama and his Tea Party congressional opposition, in 1994, Clinton faced a feral Republican Congress, led by current Presidential hopeful Newt Gingrich. Gingrich campaigned on a promise to pass major legislation which he termed his Contract with America. The reforms included requiring a 3/5ths majority to pass a tax increase. However, when elected, the Republicans became radical in their attempts to change government policy, for example by including a balanced budget requirement and Social Security reform. Effectively, Gingrich set himself up as an executive in competition with Clinton, not a legislator.
Demands made on Clinton in relation to the budget led to two shut-downs of the Federal Government, as the President refused to give way. Instead, he adopted a policy of “Triangulation,” depicting Congressional Republicans as the extreme right and Democrats as the left, with him as a moderate in the middle. Obama would be wise to consider the same strategy and employ Clinton as a valued adviser (assuming the near-certainty that his wife, the Secretary of State, doesn’t have her eyes on the prize).
British Prime Minister Harold Wilson is remembered for saying “a week is a long time in politics”, and there is still a year to go til Election Day. But if I were a betting man --- which I'm not --- my money would go on a President Obama giving a second Inaugural Speech in January 2013.