EA WorldView

People run for shelter from gunfire in Homs in Syria on Monday

2120 GMT: Back from an academic break to find this footage of people protesting in Barzeh outside the Syrian capital Damascus:

1703 GMT: Anas Shami, a Syrian Member of Parliament, has told Al Jazeera that the troops in Homs and elsewhere are there to keep the peace, and Syria is in compliance with the Arab League agreement. The death toll in Syria, according to the UN, has hit 3,500.

1615 GMT: As if on cue, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reports clashes between protesters and defecting soldiers near Hama and in Idlib Province:

There are reports of violent clashes between Syrian regular army and suspected defectors for over 2 hours near the areas of “Al-Assad Medical Centre”, the south of the stadium, ‘Al-Haader’ and ‘Al-Mezrab’ in Hama.

‎8 members of Syrian army and security forces were killed in an ambush by armed group (suspected defectors) in the south of ‘Ma’arrat Numan’ in the city of Idlib.

According to the report, several civilians have also been killed by security forces, on in Idlib city, and the other in the rural town of Ariha.

1606 GMT: This video was reportedly taken in Qaboun, Damascus (MAP). The significance of these this video and the last one is that, for yet another day, the protest movement is alive and well in the most critical suburbs directly outside of Damascus:

1557 GMT: Protesters chant "Come on, leave, Bashar" in Irbeen, a Damascus suburb just northeast of the city (MAP):

1543 GMT: I put my newest assessment to Blake Hounshell of Foreign Policy Magazine, and he had this to say.

I don't have a good sense of whether defectors would move to other towns. My sense is these people are defending their homes.... Seems to me the regime has won a few tactical victories that nonetheless add up to strategic defeat.

My response to the first point was that, while I agreed that the soldiers appear to be protecting their homes, Assad's troop deployment seems far more strategic than it did a few months ago. The second part of Blake's response is interesting. Assad has, thus far, suppressed the defecting soldiers to the point where they do not yet seem capable of taking and holding territory. However, as for the strategic defeat, I suppose this would have to be defined, but it's hard to see Assad's long-term strategy. HE may be able to hold on to power, at least for a time, but at what cost? The Syrian economy is crashing, and Assad will never really be safe ever again. Strategic defeat? Likely.

1520 GMT: The AP shares raw video from sources in Syria. They describe the video below:

Amateur video shows a large explosion in Homs, Syria, purportedly a tank strike, and people running for cover as automatic weapon fire could be heard. (Nov. 8)

1452 GMT: In the first entry of the day, Scott Lucas writes:

The article by Shadid, an excellent journalist who got inside Syria for a quick but incisive journey this autumn, followed this snap message from Blake Hounshell of Foreign Policy magazine: "Pretty sure we are not getting the whole story on what's going on in Homs."

This is hard to argue with. Video trickles in showing a single point of reference for, usually, less than 2 minutes. However, there is enough evidence to form a "hypothesis" narrative, an educated guess.

In the last two months, reports of defections, particularly in the suburbs of Homs, came flooding in. Soon, Al Rastan, and then Talbiseh, both due north of the city, were being hit by a massive military campaign, and communication was nearly cut entirely. However, reports from closer suburbs of Homs were also coming in, as it appears the defecting troops were retreating, gaining new members on the way. Those defectors, the majority of whom are working under the banner "The Free Syrian Army," have now, according to some video we've seen, taken refuge in Homs. The FSA claim that their primary goal is to protect civilians from the military, but it appears that the military is now holding the people of Homs responsible for harboring these defected soldiers, particular in the western districts of the city.

With Hama only approximately 40 km to the north, these two cities form the backbone of the opposition as they are large, central, and have been hot spots for protests and defections. In Hama, there is also fighting between the Syrian military and defected soldiers, though it appears, right now, to be away from the center of the city.

One additional point to remember. By positioning this much military equipment in Homs, Assad is effectively preventing defectors from traveling south to the capital, Damascus, and it's volatile suburbs, particularly Douma to the north of the city center. If Assad felt the capital was threatened, he could easily pull his forces out of Homs and to the south while keeping those crucial paths blocked. While the Arab League debates whether the Assad regime is willing to withdraw its forces from Syria's cities, Bashar al Assad has made his worldview perfectly clear

This is war, and Assad intends to win.

1435 GMT: James Miller takes the liveblog.

And it's another bloody day in Syria. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights is reporting that a child has been killed, and two members of her family injured, in the Ashira neighborhood of Homs. At least 2 people have died in Baba Amr, Homs, including a woman who died of injuries sustained yesterday, according to the SOHR.

According to Now Lebanon, 5 people have died today across Syria. The LCCS is reporting that a 16 year old girl, Amneh Al-Jundy, was killed in Bab Dreib, Homs, and a man, Mahmud Ma'r Dibsawi, was killed in Sarakeb, Idlib Province. It's hard to reconcile all of these numbers, as some are surely redundant, but the point is that Homs is, once again, the focal point for violence, but it is not the only city suffering. There are also reports of clashes in Hama, as well as the places listed above.

The Guardian has this update:

Activist Salim al-Homsi has been speaking to AP from Syria about the current situation in his home town of Homs.

He said that troops loyal to Bashar al-Assad's regime now control large sections of Bab Amr- the military defectors having withdrawn- but that security forces were still conducting raids and operations in other areas. Al-Homsi, however, remained defiant:

"They think they can control Baba Amr like they did other areas but they are wrong, we are not afraid of them. We will keep protesting."

1000 GMT: The presence of police --- armed with shotguns and tear gas, according to an EA source --- in Buri this morning:

0855 GMT: The month-long journey of the Bahraini opposition's "Freedom Torch" reaches Barbar village on Monday:

0540 GMT: Snapshots of protest and clashes in Bahrain on Monday --- police use tear gas to little effect in Ma'ameer:

A march in Alqarya:

0510 GMT: This may be the official moment of recognition in the mainstream media of the situation that EA's James Miller saw weeks ago --- Anthony Shadid anoints the conflict for The New York Times:

The Syrian government has launched a bloody assault to retake Homs, the country’s third-largest city, facing armed defectors who have prevented the government’s forces from seizing it as they did other restive locales this summer, in what may stand as one of the most violent episodes in an eight-month uprising.

The article by Shadid, an excellent journalist who got inside Syria for a quick but incisive journey this autumn, followed this snap message from Blake Hounshell of Foreign Policy magazine: "Pretty sure we are not getting the whole story on what's going on in Homs."

If you look closely through the murk of limited communications and the smoke through Syria's third-largest city, much of that story is there. Shadid's "urban battlefield,...opposition groups warning of dire shortages forced by the siege, and residents complaining of lawlessness by marauding soldiers and paramilitary fighters" did not emerge yesterday --- it has been there since the regime had to respond to the massing of protesters this summer, followed by the accumulating evidence that defecting troops were gathering the city.

However, in the last week the curtain was raised on a campaign of sustained shelling by artillery and tanks as the military tried to soften up the city for an occupation and a round-up of both defectors and dissidents. An estimated 130 people have lost that lives at the hands of security forces since then. The conflict was punctuated yesterday by footage of the destruction and of defectors moving through the city, pursued by regime militia.

Before this latest phase, we said that Homs was not yet Benghazi, Libya's second-largest city which effectively became the seat of opposition government and military operations in the uprising that finally removed Muammar Qaddafi. It is still not, but Hounshell's "whole story" may include an effort by the resistance to establish that alternative rule --- certainly, the messages by opposition leader Burhan Ghalioun, from outside the country, and from the dissident "Free Syrian Army" are pointing to that possibility.

So this current regime offensive, which will take many more lives, is not to sweep up the defectors and to punish protesters. It is a political necessity. As Shadid writes in his noticing of Homs:

In a country fraught with fears of a broader civil war, Homs may be emerging as an example to the rest of Syria of the relative success of fighting back against a military that, while still unified, has suffered more defections as fighting persists and more than 3,000 civilians have been killed.