EA WorldView

2110 GMT: Currency Watch. The Iranian rial continues to slide against the US dollar. Having broken the 13000:1 barrier for the first time this summer, it sank from 13100:1 on Sunday to 13280:1 today, also falling against the British pound and Euro.

Meanwhile, economic expert Bijan Abdi has sharply criticised, "Our benefit from the Year of Economic Jihad" --- declared by the Supreme Leader in March --- "is next to nothing." He blamed the Ahmadinejad Administration and Parliament for the failure.

2100 GMT: That Ahmadinejad Speech. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has pushed back hard against President Ahmadinejad.

Without naming the President, Larijani said, "We are confronted with political 'lumpenism', politicians should not agitate society mentally."

The Speaker used the derogatory term "laat-baazi", referring to the indecent behaviour of a rascal, as he indicated, "A certain political person has not enough manners or honour."

2050 GMT: The Battle Within. The Supreme Leader's office has issued a warning to Iran's media: "Don't publish untrue or unofficial news."

The rebuke comes after an MP said that Ayatollah Khamenei, after his speech raising the possibility of a move from a Presidential to a Prime Ministerial system, had issued instructions for a review of the defects in Iran's Constitution, paving the way for the change.

2045 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. It is not clear why singer Arya Arramnejad has been arrested (see 1530 GMT), but this song, produced for the religious festival of Ashura last year, indicates where the sympathies of the popular artist lie --- "Rise up [Imam] Ali and invalidate the system of fraudsters":

2040 GMT: EA's Nuke Coverage. We have posted the text of the IAEA report on Iran's nuclear programme and will have a full analysis tomorrow morning. Later tonight --- after "other" Iran news --- we will offer a few key snippets of insight and reaction.

1800 GMT: Economy Watch. The head of the Central Bank, Mahmoud Bahmani, has said that inflation in the month of Mehr (Sept./Oct.) was 19.1%. He added that the amount of cash in the Iranian money was more than 8% greater than in March 2011.

1655 GMT: Prime Minister v. President. Another sign that, if the Supreme Leader was looking toward a Prime Ministerial system to replace an elected President, the idea is being pulled back....

MP Mohammad Dehghan, who had said that the Supreme Leader's office was going to review the problems with the Iranian Constitution, has withdrawn the remarks, saying that Ayatollah Khamenei's must publish the news itself.

1555 GMT: That Ahmadinejad Speech. Another significant slap at the President over his Thursday statement....

Iran Prosecutor General Gholam-Hossein Mohseni Ejei, responded to Ahmadinejad's claim that two of his deputies had been arrested over the "sedition" after the 2009 Presidential elections, said the remarks were "pure untruth".

Mohseni Ejei was Minister of Intelligence at the time but was soon removed by Ahmadinejad.

The Prosecutor General added that 82 people have now been arrested in the $2.6 billion bank fraud (see 1545 GMT).

1545 GMT: Bank Fraud Battle. Developments in the politics around the $2.6 billion bank fraud....

Absar News and the "Virtual Jihad" site, linked to the Ahmadinejad camp, have been blocked after posts claiming the involvement of the Supreme Leader's inner circle and hard-line MPs in the fraud.

Meanwhile, an apparent strike at the Ahmadinejad group --- Iran Prosecutor General Gholam-Hossein Mohseni Ejei has confirmed the arrest of a relative of Presidential Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai in the case. The suspect is identified only as "A.R."

1535 GMT: Hype Watch. President Ahmadinejad has used the chatter around the forthcoming International Atomic Energy Agency report on Iran's nuclear programme for a slap at the US and its allies, with special words for IAEA head Yukiya Amano:

This person does not publish a report about America and its allies' nuclear arsenals. If America wants to confront the Iranian nation, it will certainly regret the Iranian nation's response. If you think by pressuring the Iranian nation, you can change the situation in the world, you are very much mistaken. They are saying that Iran is seeking the atomic bomb. But they should know... we do not need a bomb. Rather, we will act thoughtfully and with logic.

1530 GMT: Saham News reports that popular singer Arya Arramnejad was arrested in a raid by intelligence agents today. The singer was reportedly beaten, with his computer and documents confiscated

1340 GMT: Threat of the Day. Revolutionary Guards' Air Force Commander Amir Ali Hajizadeh tells the US Government, "If one of us is killed by the US, we will kill 10 of your people."

1325 GMT: Kalemeh reports that the former office of Mir Hossein Mousavi, the 2009 Presidential candidate held under strict house arrest for almost nine months, has been raided, with computers, books, and personal items confiscated.

1320 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. An activist reports that Journalist Mehran Faraji has been sentenced to six months in prison, with another six months suspended.

1200 GMT: A British MP has called on the Government to embargo the sale to Iran of mobile-phone software that assists in the tracking, arrest, and repression of opposition activists.

David Alton, speaking in the House of Lords, asked for an accounting of sales such as those by Creativity Software Ltd.

Last week Bloomberg identified Creativity Software as one of three European companies which had sold technology used for surveillance by Iranian security services. The Daily Telegraph subsequently revealed that Foreign Secretary William Hague was linked to Creativity Software, through a research paid for by the heads of a company with a stake in the technology provider.

1100 GMT: The House Arrests. Saham News, the outlet of opposition figure Mehdi Karroubi, reports that he suffered respiratory problems in the small apartment where he is under strict detention. It says Karroubi has been relocated to a new home in the Shemiran section of Tehran, but is still separated from his wife Fatemeh, who is also under house arrest.

1000 GMT: Wall Street Shuffle. Mohsen Heydari, the temporary Friday Prayer leader in Ahwaz in southern Iran, offers an addition to the regime's exaltation of Occupy Wall Street --- the cleric says it is a big step towards the appearance of Shi'a's "Hidden Imam".

0748 GMT: The Ahmadinejad Speech. Former Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki has issued a sharp response to the President's speech, in which he defended his dismissal of Mottaki --- while the Foreign Minister was on a mission to Senegal --- last December: "It is unworthy for a President to make 24 false claims within 20 lines. I will reveal the Senegal story at the end of his Government."

It is worth remembering that Mottaki is far from a spent force in Iranian politics: he is one of the leaders of the "7+8" Committee seeking conservative/principlist unity for next March's Parliamentary elections.

0745 GMT: Economy Watch. Forget that $2.6 billion bank fraud, because everything is A-OK....

The Organization for Investment, Economic and Technical Assistance of Iran (OIETA) has so far received 22 requests in which foreign banks have expressed interest to establish branches in Iran, OIETA head Behrouz Alishiri announced on Monday.

The organization is currently in talks with the foreign banks in this regard, Alishiri told the IRNA news agency without giving details.

....In October, Alishiri said that in terms of the growth of foreign direct investment (FDI), Iran is ranked among the world’s top countries....

With an 86-percent growth, the foreign investment figure hit the all-time record of $3 billion in 2009, and ranked Iran among the top six countries in this respect.

0605 GMT: Getting the Line Right. There has been tensions within the opposition camp, inside and outside Iran, after US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's recent propaganda drive was marked by her criticism of the Green Movement for supposedly not seeking American assistance after the 2009 Presidential election. Debate over whether there should be a repeated call for US support, and what form that support should take, has led to criticism of some dissidents including Mojtaba Vahedi, often framed as the spokesman for detained opposition figure Mehdi Karroubi.

Now 120 expatriate intellectuals have issued a statement trying to establish the political line, condemning oppression inside Iran while also objecting to any military attack by the US or Israel against Tehran.

Signatories include Ervand Ebrahamian, Ramin Jahanbegloo, Abdolkarim Lahiji, Hamid Dabashi, and Akbar Ganji.

0600 GMT: The Ahmadinejad Warning. An EA correspondent quickly follows up on our first item, linking the President's challenge to his opponents with news of the suspect safety record of Iran Air and of a licence for a foreign service to operate domestic routes in Iran: "I wonder whether Ahmadinejad's rivals will have to fly with Qatar Airways".

0545 GMT: The ripples from last Thursday's speech by President Ahmadinejad, in which he projected a "final confrontation" with others in the Iranian establishment, continue.

The pro-Ahmadinejad Dolat-e Ma, which was briefly blocked after it published the Ahmadinejad speech, follows up with this warning from the President to his opponents: "If I tell the truth, you must make your planes ready for flight."

The article, if accurate in its presentation, also provides an important signal about the President's strategy. Ahmadonejad specifically takes aim at the camp of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani --- he dares MP Ali Abbaspour, a supporter of Rafsanjani, to call for his Parliamentary interrogation, and he then taunts that Rafsanjani can "learn how to be responsible to people" from him.

That bears out our analysis yesterday that Ahmadinejad's short-term aim is to block Rafsanjani, who has been seeking the support from the Supreme Leader, and to put him into political purgatory. What we are looking for today is whether the President --- despite another report in which he said Ayatollah Khamenei had asked for "a period of quiet" --- also presses against Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani and head of judiciary Sadegh Larijani.