The Latest from Iran (8 February): Dominoes Falling?
Tuesday, February 8, 2011 at 6:36
Scott Lucas in Ali Akbar Salehi, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, EA Iran, Hashemi Rafsanjani, Mehdi Karroubi, Middle East and Iran, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mohammad Ilkhani, Mohammad Reza Mahdavi Kani, Mojtaba Khamenei, Ramin Mehmanparast, Reza Kermani, Suzanne Mubarak, Zahra Bahrami

2125 GMT: Closing Down a House of Worship. A Sunni prayer-house in Tehran has been sealed and prayer leader Moulavi Obeidollah Mousazadeh arrested.

2100 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. A judge has revoked bail for detained journalist Nazanin Khosravani, saying she was likely to flee Iran.

Khosravani's bail was suddenly increased last week, preventing her from leaving prison.

2055 GMT: Interrogating the Mothers. The website of the Mothers of Mourning says that more than 15 members have been summoned to the Ministry of Intelligence.

2020 GMT: Khamenei Quitting? Press TV appears to know something we don't --- its headline today, "Leader: Despotism Coming to End".

2000 GMT: 25 Bahman. Students of Ashrafi, Isfahan, Tehran, and Rasa Universities have called on people to support the rally of 25 Bahman (14 February).

The Facebook page for 25 Bahman now has 19,000 supporters.

1950 GMT: Execution Watch. Now I'm saying that the Iranian regime is still rattled by the reaction to its execution of Dutch-Iranian woman Zahra Bahrami....

Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast has accused Dutch authorities of making "irresponsible statements" over the case of Bahrami, who was hanged on 29 January 29 for drug smuggling after she was initially charged with "mohareb" (war against God).

Mehmanparast said, "It is unfortunate that countries that claim to defend human rights and always try to appear civilized lend their support to judicial cases that concern crime, betrayal or drug smuggling." He said countries such as the Netherlands that continue on such a path will become "countries brimmed with smugglers, criminals and traitors."

1640 GMT: Mousavi and Karroubi Press On (cont.). The Facebook page supporting Mir Hossein Mousavi has posted today's statement (see 1155 GMT) by Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi. The take-away line is Mousavi and Karroubi's "comparisons between the current situation of the country and the oppressions people were suffering during the Shah’s era, more than 30 years ago, which resulted in the Islamic Revolution". The two men "urged the military, police, Revolutionary Guards and Basij to side with the people."

1635 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Reza Kermani has been sentenced to one year in prison for "acting against national security" by giving interviews to foreign media.

Tehran University student Mohammad Ilkhani has been detained.

1630 GMT: Regime Stands Tall Against Despicable Egyptian Government. A picture of Mrs Ahmadinejad vigorously denouncing the US-backed, Zionist-supporting, Islamic Revolution-repressing Suzanne Mubarak, Egypt's First Lady:

(Well, OK, not quite that good a story. Mrs Ahmadinejad is actually with the wife of Lebanese President Michel Suleiman --- as the flag on the left verifies --- but some Iranian media got their Arab First Ladies mixed up and put in the wrong name.)

1620 GMT: Culture Watch. Following the edict from State broadcaster IRIB that "Western" foods should not be shown in cooking programmes, Ayande News gives further guidance: 1)Show polo instead of football; 2) Men should be in Luristani pants instead of blue jeans.

We don't have a picture of the polo, which of course would be overwhelmingly welcomed by the Iranian public rather than Persepolis-Esteglhal football derby, but here are Wrong and Right for men's fashion:

1615 GMT: MediaFail. In an article on the Mousavi-Karroubi call to march on 25 Bahman (14 February), AFP has this howler: "Two detainees were hanged last month and others have been sentenced to long prison terms."

The rate of executions has escalated sharply in Iran over the last month: at one point an average of eight people per day were put to death.

1350 GMT: 25 Bahman Update. Because of academic duties, updates will be limited for a couple more hours, but just to note....

The Facebook page supporting the march of 25 Bahman now has more than 16,500 supporters.

1155 GMT: Mousavi and Karroubi Press On. Having issued their call for a march on 25 Bahman (14 February), Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi have followed up with a statement declaring that protest is necessary because the Revolutionary Guards and Basij militia will not refrain from interfering in the politics and society of Iran, distorting the legacy of the Islamic Revolution.

1020 GMT: Execution Watch. The Associated Press has noticed the story, circulating for days and highlighted on EA yesterday, that Iranian security forces secretly buried the executed Dutch-Iranian woman Zahra Bahrami.

HRANA (Human Rights Activists News Agency claims Bahrami's daughter was told that the burial was done secretly to avoid the presence of Dutch diplomats amongst others. The Netherlands have withdrawn their Ambassador in protest over the execution and the treatment of Bahrami's family.

0920 GMT: The Battle Over Rafsanjani. Rooz Online sets out a story we have been hearing from EA sources in recent days:

Government media in Iran are reporting of the impending candidacy of Ayatollah Mohammad Reza Mahdavi Kani for the position of the chair of the Assembly of Experts on Leadership (Majles Khobregan). According to these reports, Mahdavi Kani is under pressure by a number of political personalities and organizations to compete with incumbent Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani in the upcoming elections for the top position on the powerful body that constitutionally is charged with supervising the work of the [Supreme] Leader and appointing one if necessary.

This is a big power play, linked to President Ahmadinejad's battle with the Expediency Council, which Rafsanjani heads, over his powers. And of course it goes back to the immediate post-election council, including attempts to prosecute Rafsanjani's son Mehdi Hashemi.

Ayatollah Mahdavi Kani is the general secretary of Tehran's Jame Rohaniat Mobarez (Association of Combatant Clergy) and the chancellor of Imam Sadegh University. He is one of the most influential conservative clerics, with strong ties to the Supreme Leader's office. 

However, the Rooz story is not complete. We have got word from EA sources that Ayatollah Khomeini's grandson, Seyed Hassan Khomeini, has been in discussions with senior clerics in Qom, seeking to bolster Rafsanjani's position. More on this on Wednesday....

0714 GMT: A Gust of Fresh Breath? Another sign of renewed activism....

Two websites have been launched to pursue the issue of executions in Iran. Persian2English reports on the International Campaign for Abolishing the Death Penalty in Iran and readers notify us of the Human Chain Project.

0710 GMT: Covering Up. Still no response from The Telegraph of London on why it pulled the WikiLeaks cable implicating the son of the Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, in fraud over the 2009 Presidential election (see EA's feature).

0640 GMT: We start this morning with a cartoon:

This may be rather ambitious, but the last 48 hours have brought a surge in discussion of change. The approach by Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi for a permit to march on 25 Bahman (14 February), three days after the regime's celebration of the 1979 Revolution, is seeking to "blow fresh breath" into the opposition movement. After months of disappointment and frustration --- arguably, going back to this same point last year --- the hope is to show that there is still hope.

Of course, the big question is whether this surge in discussion is occurring inside Iran as well.

Meanwhile, the regime is trying to keep attention elsewhere, by claiming great scientific and military achievements (more satellites! more missiles! more submarines!), taking credit for uprisings elsewhere, and pushing its regional standing. State media's focus this morning is on the phone call of Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi to Turkish counterpart Ahmet Davutoglu to "discuss developments in the Middle East and North Africa".

Article originally appeared on EA WorldView (http://www.enduringamerica.com/).
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