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Shane Bauer and Josh FattalWell, we may have a real fight within the Iranian establishment on our hands....
President Ahmadinejad has used another American channel, ABC News, to put out a defiant message, even as the judiciary --- or someone higher up in Iran --- has told a judge to stay "on vacation" so he does not sign the bail order of $500,000 each for US citizens Josh Fattal and Shane Bauer.
Here's the exchange with George Stephanopoulos of ABC:
STEPHANOPOULOS: There seems to be from the outside a power struggle inside Iran. The members of the judiciary are determined to embarrass you and prevent the release of those hikers while you’re here in the United States.AHMADINEJAD: Is it their release which is important for you? Or what’s going on in Iran? There is no problem. There is a judicial process that has to be completed and hopefully it will be, God willing.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Guaranteed they will come to the United States?
AHMADINEJAD: Do I have to guarantee?
STEPHANOPOULOS: I think a lot of Americans would like that guarantee.
AHMADINEJAD: Yes, whatever we say....
STEPHANOPOULOS: Can you not guarantee?
AHMADINEJAD: Yes, we act upon whatever we say. And if we don’t want to act, we won’t say it. We didn’t make this decision under pressure. It’s a humanitarian decision. Although, a lot of people are in jail or in prison in American prisons, inside the United States, in Europe, on ships unfortunately there are a lot of people without having had the opportunity of a fair trial. And there are some Iranians who are imprisoned in the United States and did not have the opportunity of a full judicial review. But when we said we will release them, we will release them, as a humanitarian gesture.
Let's break this down to get the significance. Last week, Ahmadinejad did not tell NBC News, in its televised interview from Iran, that he would ensure the release of Bauer and Fattal; he said he hoped that they would be freed. (NBC exaggerated this to big up its "exclusive" with the President.)
The more significant exchange was with The Washington Post. Ahmadinejad still stopped short of a commitment that the two Americans would be bailed but he spoke of a "unilateral humanitarian gesture".
Well, he has reiterated that --- "a humanitarian decision" --- but notice that he is now saying that a decision has been made: "When we said we will release them, we will release them." And Ahmadinejad is not linking this to any step by the American Government, such as the freeing of Iranian prisoners in the US, which has been demanded by a number of politicians and media in Tehran.
There is still a bit of flexibility for Ahmadinejad here, as he put no timeframe on the completion of the judicial process; there is not even a "soon" in the interview. However, he has upped the stakes: the Iranian judiciary has already denied him a public-relations victory before he ventured to the United Nations. If it continues to stall, on its own accord or (more likely) with the backing of others, then Ahmadinejad will look weaker and weaker.
"Is it their release which is important for you? Or what’s going on in Iran?"
Both.